A Bullish Trend Line Cross
Medifast has just completed a bullish upward move across a resistance trend line. I've purchased a July 16 call option and also bought some shares. I'm hoping it will move up as decisively as it recently moved down, hitting $290 by early July.
For confirmation, look for a candle close above the trend line today. If price closes the day below the trend line, this signal is invalidated.
Fundamentals
I estimate Medifast's forward P/E at about 17, forward P/S at about 2, and forward dividend yield at about 2.33%. P/FCF is about 18. These numbers are pretty middle of the road. But where Medifast really shines is its growth rate. Over a five-year period, it has averaged 7-8% sales and earnings growth and 11% free cash flow growth. Arguably the price multiples are low given that growth rate. S&P Global gives Medifast a 74/100 average fundamentals score. I give Medifast a 4/6 for its earnings outlook. It got a minor downward revision to its earnings forecast around June 1, which is why the price took a dive. But this massive downward move was a huge overreaction relative to the size of the forecast revision, and I expect MED to snap back to around the $300 level.
Sentiment
Medifast has a 9.9/10 analyst summary score, up 0.4 points over the last 30 days. The put/call ratio is somewhat bearish, at 1.6, but I expect that to improve after the bullish trend line cross. Technicals are net bullish, and I estimate about 23% risk/reward ratio here as long as it holds support at 261. There's 35% upside to the average analyst price target.
Medifast has just completed a bullish upward move across a resistance trend line. I've purchased a July 16 call option and also bought some shares. I'm hoping it will move up as decisively as it recently moved down, hitting $290 by early July.
For confirmation, look for a candle close above the trend line today. If price closes the day below the trend line, this signal is invalidated.
Fundamentals
I estimate Medifast's forward P/E at about 17, forward P/S at about 2, and forward dividend yield at about 2.33%. P/FCF is about 18. These numbers are pretty middle of the road. But where Medifast really shines is its growth rate. Over a five-year period, it has averaged 7-8% sales and earnings growth and 11% free cash flow growth. Arguably the price multiples are low given that growth rate. S&P Global gives Medifast a 74/100 average fundamentals score. I give Medifast a 4/6 for its earnings outlook. It got a minor downward revision to its earnings forecast around June 1, which is why the price took a dive. But this massive downward move was a huge overreaction relative to the size of the forecast revision, and I expect MED to snap back to around the $300 level.
Sentiment
Medifast has a 9.9/10 analyst summary score, up 0.4 points over the last 30 days. The put/call ratio is somewhat bearish, at 1.6, but I expect that to improve after the bullish trend line cross. Technicals are net bullish, and I estimate about 23% risk/reward ratio here as long as it holds support at 261. There's 35% upside to the average analyst price target.
Note
So far, so good. My call position is up almost 50% today.Note
We're very close to the 290 price target on this.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.