#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futures
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Same as for dax. Shallow two-legged pullback to the moving average is a perfect buy signal once we trade above 6087 again. I have targets at 6300 or higher and the chart is as clear as it gets. Only a daily close below 6000 would change the outlook.
Quote from last week:
comment: Nothing has changed from last week. Market went nowhere and it has formed a perfect very shallow two-legged pullback to the ema. Above 6080 it’s a clear buy signal and I can see this going for 6300 into year end. No bearish thoughts, since bulls are in full control and best bears could do last week was a 70 point pullback. That is as weak as it gets.
current market cycle: Bull trend - very late
key levels: 6000 - 6300
bull case: Chart is still the same and structure did not change. Once we break above, long it for 6150+. Nothing more to say about this.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Dax outlook covers also sp500 and nasdaq. Bears are not doing anything and until they come around big time, only look for longs. Bears need a daily close below 6000 for me to reevaluate.
Invalidation is above 6120.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded 6099 and now we are at 6055. Good outlook.
short term: Neutral until we break above 6080 and then 6120. Above 6120, market has to find a top and that could be all the way up to 6300.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed the potential bearish two-legged correction. Only bullish targets remain for now.
sp500 e-mini futures: Same as for dax. Shallow two-legged pullback to the moving average is a perfect buy signal once we trade above 6087 again. I have targets at 6300 or higher and the chart is as clear as it gets. Only a daily close below 6000 would change the outlook.
Quote from last week:
comment:Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it.
comment: Nothing has changed from last week. Market went nowhere and it has formed a perfect very shallow two-legged pullback to the ema. Above 6080 it’s a clear buy signal and I can see this going for 6300 into year end. No bearish thoughts, since bulls are in full control and best bears could do last week was a 70 point pullback. That is as weak as it gets.
current market cycle: Bull trend - very late
key levels: 6000 - 6300
bull case: Chart is still the same and structure did not change. Once we break above, long it for 6150+. Nothing more to say about this.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Dax outlook covers also sp500 and nasdaq. Bears are not doing anything and until they come around big time, only look for longs. Bears need a daily close below 6000 for me to reevaluate.
Invalidation is above 6120.
outlook last week:
short term:I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not.
→ Last Sunday we traded 6099 and now we are at 6055. Good outlook.
short term: Neutral until we break above 6080 and then 6120. Above 6120, market has to find a top and that could be all the way up to 6300.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed the potential bearish two-legged correction. Only bullish targets remain for now.
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