#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futures
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Hard to be bullish after this leg up but the structure is clear. We have two big trend lines running up to 6300 and a measured move target. I’d love to see a deeper pullback to at least 5900 but as of now that’s a pipe dream for the bears. The price is truth and it just screams bullishness. Last pullback was 170 points and that would bring us to 5940, so close enough. Can we really go up to 6300? I don’t know but it would be naive to say that we could not. We made 6100 and that already is the most overvalued the market has ever been. So obviously we can go further up. If we print 5900 on Monday, I would not be surprised one tiny bit but that is just much more unlikely than 6300 at this point.
Quote from last week:
comment: Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it.
current market cycle: Bull trend - very late
key levels: 6000 - 6300
bull case: Bulls buy it all but it’s climactic. They still see multiple trend lines leading to even higher prices and as long as this keeps going, they keep buying. The first pullback will likely touch the daily 20ema soon and I do not expect it to just slice through it. Bulls buying any small pullback, made money for 3 weeks now, they won’t stop all of a sudden but at some point next week, they need to start taking profits to reduce risk.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Same as for dax. Until bears come around much stronger, everything in here is low probability. I would prefer a huge dip down to 5900 before we get another rally up to 6100 or even 6300. Next week will probably be the most important in December. Anything below 5900 would certainly put a huge limitation on targets above 6100.
Invalidation is above 5900.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear.
→ Last Sunday we traded 6051 and now we are at 6099. Good outlook.
short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added a potential two-legged correction for next week but not later (my best guess as of now)
sp500 e-mini futures: Hard to be bullish after this leg up but the structure is clear. We have two big trend lines running up to 6300 and a measured move target. I’d love to see a deeper pullback to at least 5900 but as of now that’s a pipe dream for the bears. The price is truth and it just screams bullishness. Last pullback was 170 points and that would bring us to 5940, so close enough. Can we really go up to 6300? I don’t know but it would be naive to say that we could not. We made 6100 and that already is the most overvalued the market has ever been. So obviously we can go further up. If we print 5900 on Monday, I would not be surprised one tiny bit but that is just much more unlikely than 6300 at this point.
Quote from last week:
comment:Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs.
comment: Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it.
current market cycle: Bull trend - very late
key levels: 6000 - 6300
bull case: Bulls buy it all but it’s climactic. They still see multiple trend lines leading to even higher prices and as long as this keeps going, they keep buying. The first pullback will likely touch the daily 20ema soon and I do not expect it to just slice through it. Bulls buying any small pullback, made money for 3 weeks now, they won’t stop all of a sudden but at some point next week, they need to start taking profits to reduce risk.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Same as for dax. Until bears come around much stronger, everything in here is low probability. I would prefer a huge dip down to 5900 before we get another rally up to 6100 or even 6300. Next week will probably be the most important in December. Anything below 5900 would certainly put a huge limitation on targets above 6100.
Invalidation is above 5900.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear.
→ Last Sunday we traded 6051 and now we are at 6099. Good outlook.
short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added a potential two-legged correction for next week but not later (my best guess as of now)
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