#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: Neutral. Very strong rally Mo-Wednesday just to almost completely reverse and close the week 11 points above the open. Rallies getting stuffed hard now and bulls will only try so many times until we test lower prices. 2630 is the price for bears to break and bulls need anything above 2760 again. It’s much more likely that we close 2024 around 2700. Market has also formed another triangle on the daily/weekly chart, so don’t expect a trending market for the next 3 weeks.
Quote from last week:
comment: Quick and dirty again. Bulls had the perfect setup for 2800+ but blew it. Big bois selling the rips and market formed another triangle. I doubt it will go anywhere in the next 3 weeks. Likely yearly close around 2700. Play the range or don’t trade this at all.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2620 - 2750
bull case: Bulls blew it. The setup from last weeks Friday was perfect and Mo-We we had amazing follow through. Thursday was a huge bear surprise and bulls just gave up on the rally. They got stuffed big time now two times over the past 5 weeks, which makes me believe that there are probably not many more bulls who want to try a third time. Sideways is the most likely and reasonable thing to expect here.
Invalidation is below 2630.
bear case: Strong bears selling the rips but I don’t expect them to really try and push this below 2600 again. 2630 was huge support the past weeks and even if they print below, they would still have to break through the big bull trend line from August.
Invalidation is above 2763.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded 2659 and now we are at 2675. Market went much higher than expected but nowhere on the week, so outlook was ok.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-07: No bigger opinion on this for the rest of 2024. Market is in balance until we see a new impulse. Likely close around 2700.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
tl;dr
gold futures: Neutral. Very strong rally Mo-Wednesday just to almost completely reverse and close the week 11 points above the open. Rallies getting stuffed hard now and bulls will only try so many times until we test lower prices. 2630 is the price for bears to break and bulls need anything above 2760 again. It’s much more likely that we close 2024 around 2700. Market has also formed another triangle on the daily/weekly chart, so don’t expect a trending market for the next 3 weeks.
Quote from last week:
comment: I won’t waste much time with this market this week. Clear triangle and market is in total balance around 2660. Wait for the breakout or play the range. My best guess would be that we both see 2600 and 2700 in the next 3 weeks.
comment: Quick and dirty again. Bulls had the perfect setup for 2800+ but blew it. Big bois selling the rips and market formed another triangle. I doubt it will go anywhere in the next 3 weeks. Likely yearly close around 2700. Play the range or don’t trade this at all.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2620 - 2750
bull case: Bulls blew it. The setup from last weeks Friday was perfect and Mo-We we had amazing follow through. Thursday was a huge bear surprise and bulls just gave up on the rally. They got stuffed big time now two times over the past 5 weeks, which makes me believe that there are probably not many more bulls who want to try a third time. Sideways is the most likely and reasonable thing to expect here.
Invalidation is below 2630.
bear case: Strong bears selling the rips but I don’t expect them to really try and push this below 2600 again. 2630 was huge support the past weeks and even if they print below, they would still have to break through the big bull trend line from August.
Invalidation is above 2763.
outlook last week:
short term:Neutral inside given range.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2659 and now we are at 2675. Market went much higher than expected but nowhere on the week, so outlook was ok.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-07: No bigger opinion on this for the rest of 2024. Market is in balance until we see a new impulse. Likely close around 2700.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
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