2024-12-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - gold
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Bearish. I doubt we can close the week below 2560 but we now have a giant bear gap between 2615 - 2652. No interested in selling this tomorrow but if we close the week below 2600, the bull trend is gone for good.
comment: No matter what you think China is doing with Gold, this market is going down. We are 200 points below the ath and the bull trend is most likely over. If we close this week below 2630, it would be the second close below the weekly 20ema since January.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2590 - 2640
bull case: Bulls are in pain. Every rip is sold hard and we have a clear bear channel. Hard to come up with arguments for the bulls right now. Best they can hope for is to stay above 2600 but this market is as weak as it gets since last week.
Invalidation is below 2595.
bear case: 2566 is their main target and I am not confident they can get it tomorrow. I expect more chop near 2600 over the next 2 weeks but for Q1 I have wet dreams about 2400. If you want to trade this, look for shorts near the 3h or 4h 20ema and longs only if 2600 continues to be bigger support.
Invalidation is above 2642.
short term: Neutral. I don’t expect this to go into the weekend far from 2600 but for next 2 weeks I have 2 measured move targets below 2570.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-19: No bigger opinion on this for the rest of 2024. Market is in balance until we see a new impulse. Likely close around 2600.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: selling near the 4h 20ema or bear trend line.
tl;dr
gold - Bearish. I doubt we can close the week below 2560 but we now have a giant bear gap between 2615 - 2652. No interested in selling this tomorrow but if we close the week below 2600, the bull trend is gone for good.
comment: No matter what you think China is doing with Gold, this market is going down. We are 200 points below the ath and the bull trend is most likely over. If we close this week below 2630, it would be the second close below the weekly 20ema since January.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2590 - 2640
bull case: Bulls are in pain. Every rip is sold hard and we have a clear bear channel. Hard to come up with arguments for the bulls right now. Best they can hope for is to stay above 2600 but this market is as weak as it gets since last week.
Invalidation is below 2595.
bear case: 2566 is their main target and I am not confident they can get it tomorrow. I expect more chop near 2600 over the next 2 weeks but for Q1 I have wet dreams about 2400. If you want to trade this, look for shorts near the 3h or 4h 20ema and longs only if 2600 continues to be bigger support.
Invalidation is above 2642.
short term: Neutral. I don’t expect this to go into the weekend far from 2600 but for next 2 weeks I have 2 measured move targets below 2570.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-19: No bigger opinion on this for the rest of 2024. Market is in balance until we see a new impulse. Likely close around 2600.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: selling near the 4h 20ema or bear trend line.
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