#202447 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: I was bullish last Sunday and boi did that pay but now is not the time to buy into this climax. Market is way overdue for a pullback but I would not try to pick the top here. Only longs for me on this but only after we have seen some sideways to down movement. Buying is strong enough to expect a second leg up, which could bring us to 2900. I do think it is highly likely that we close this year above 2800.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market took 48 days to gain the 10% we now lost in 14. This selling is climactic and thus unsustainable. We will soon see a bigger bounce, if not a complete reversal to 2800 again. On the daily chart it looks nasty but on the weekly chart tis but a scratch. Bears closed all but one open bull gap and technically just retested the breakout price for the previous bull leg. This selling is strong enough to seriously doubt much higher prices than 2800. What I do expect is some bounce and more sideways movement between 2600-2800 before we could test lower prices (2300-2400) next year. For now it’s too early to go long, since market has not found a credible bottom yet but since market has not traded much below the weekly 20ema for a year. Swing longs with stop 2480ish are very reasonable.
comment: Market overdid it a bit with the selling and since Monday there are no bears to be found. Measured move up gives us 2866 and if we reach that, 2900 is probably given. You can’t think bearish at all until we reach 2800 again. 5 very strong bull bars closing at the highs. Can’t get any stronger for the bulls. Right now we went from overbought to oversold to overbought. Some pullback is expected and it will likely be a great buying opportunity.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 2500 - 2900
bull case: Can you buy the highs at 2700 and hope for a 6th consecutive bullish day? I would not. Only interested in buying this on pullbacks but I due think it’s bullish and nothing else. Will likely close 2024 above 2800 if not 2900. Next target for the bulls is 2750, followed by 2800. Dip can go as low as 2650 but below I would get more cautious.
Invalidation is below 2650.
bear case: Bears gave up on Monday. No argument for them at all here and I won’t make much up. Can only see more selling pressure coming back around 2800. I expect any pullback to be bought.
Invalidation is above 2750.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded 2570 and now we are at 2712. Perfect. Hope you made some or at least did not short the lows.
short term: Max bullish if we stay above 2650. 2800 is my expectation and 2900 possible.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added two legged correction (ABC)
tl;dr
gold futures: I was bullish last Sunday and boi did that pay but now is not the time to buy into this climax. Market is way overdue for a pullback but I would not try to pick the top here. Only longs for me on this but only after we have seen some sideways to down movement. Buying is strong enough to expect a second leg up, which could bring us to 2900. I do think it is highly likely that we close this year above 2800.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market took 48 days to gain the 10% we now lost in 14. This selling is climactic and thus unsustainable. We will soon see a bigger bounce, if not a complete reversal to 2800 again. On the daily chart it looks nasty but on the weekly chart tis but a scratch. Bears closed all but one open bull gap and technically just retested the breakout price for the previous bull leg. This selling is strong enough to seriously doubt much higher prices than 2800. What I do expect is some bounce and more sideways movement between 2600-2800 before we could test lower prices (2300-2400) next year. For now it’s too early to go long, since market has not found a credible bottom yet but since market has not traded much below the weekly 20ema for a year. Swing longs with stop 2480ish are very reasonable.
comment: Market overdid it a bit with the selling and since Monday there are no bears to be found. Measured move up gives us 2866 and if we reach that, 2900 is probably given. You can’t think bearish at all until we reach 2800 again. 5 very strong bull bars closing at the highs. Can’t get any stronger for the bulls. Right now we went from overbought to oversold to overbought. Some pullback is expected and it will likely be a great buying opportunity.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 2500 - 2900
bull case: Can you buy the highs at 2700 and hope for a 6th consecutive bullish day? I would not. Only interested in buying this on pullbacks but I due think it’s bullish and nothing else. Will likely close 2024 above 2800 if not 2900. Next target for the bulls is 2750, followed by 2800. Dip can go as low as 2650 but below I would get more cautious.
Invalidation is below 2650.
bear case: Bears gave up on Monday. No argument for them at all here and I won’t make much up. Can only see more selling pressure coming back around 2800. I expect any pullback to be bought.
Invalidation is above 2750.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral until bulls claim 2630 again. 2540 just has to hold or if we spike down to 2500 we would have to see huge buying or this will flush down more. Bears are in full control until market trades above the 4h ema again.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2570 and now we are at 2712. Perfect. Hope you made some or at least did not short the lows.
short term: Max bullish if we stay above 2650. 2800 is my expectation and 2900 possible.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added two legged correction (ABC)
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