Good Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Not much difference to the dax or sp500, so you can skip the text and just watch the chart. Should look similar to you and you should trade it the same. If you have not read my dax update, please go read it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels for next week: 20700 - 22000
bull case: Bulls are trapping bears into decent looking shorts just to reverse them strongly. Bulls are still hopeful af and until we have a daily close below 20700, the bull wedge is alive and can lead to higher prices. Bulls are heavily favored to continue until then. Target is obviously 22000.
Invalidation is below 20600.
bear case: Bears need a daily close below 22700 and close the giant gap down to 20200. Until then they have been making money shorting new highs but only for scalps. If we get another good move down next week, you should take big profits before they vanish again. Daily 20ema held for 6 weeks now, expect the next touch to get bought as well.
Invalidation is above 22100.
short term: Bullish that we stay above 20700 and hit 22000 next week. The buying on Friday was so strong, that we can expect higher prices. I will need strong signals though since we had bad news after hours Friday and Friday was also end of month, which can always distort the market bias somewhat.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-01: Market is refusing to go down but I can not see this going much more up. Maybe we hit 22000 maybe we don’t. My assumption is still that latest around end of June we begin to decline over the summer. If EU tariffs go through next week or there is no really good news before end of day Friday, expect a blood bath if they come into effect. It’s a trade embargo. No one will ship anything with 50% on top of it and markets are trading like everything is literally perfect.
comment: Not much difference to the dax or sp500, so you can skip the text and just watch the chart. Should look similar to you and you should trade it the same. If you have not read my dax update, please go read it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels for next week: 20700 - 22000
bull case: Bulls are trapping bears into decent looking shorts just to reverse them strongly. Bulls are still hopeful af and until we have a daily close below 20700, the bull wedge is alive and can lead to higher prices. Bulls are heavily favored to continue until then. Target is obviously 22000.
Invalidation is below 20600.
bear case: Bears need a daily close below 22700 and close the giant gap down to 20200. Until then they have been making money shorting new highs but only for scalps. If we get another good move down next week, you should take big profits before they vanish again. Daily 20ema held for 6 weeks now, expect the next touch to get bought as well.
Invalidation is above 22100.
short term: Bullish that we stay above 20700 and hit 22000 next week. The buying on Friday was so strong, that we can expect higher prices. I will need strong signals though since we had bad news after hours Friday and Friday was also end of month, which can always distort the market bias somewhat.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-01: Market is refusing to go down but I can not see this going much more up. Maybe we hit 22000 maybe we don’t. My assumption is still that latest around end of June we begin to decline over the summer. If EU tariffs go through next week or there is no really good news before end of day Friday, expect a blood bath if they come into effect. It’s a trade embargo. No one will ship anything with 50% on top of it and markets are trading like everything is literally perfect.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.