#202512 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futures
Good Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls were not strong enough to trap late bears and every bear selling below 19700 had multiple chances of exiting break-even or even with a profit. I still think we need to see a bigger bounce but for now market is in balance at 19800, which is bad for the bulls. We need to form a proper channel down and going sideways to do so would be amazing for the bears and a show of big strength by them. 23 days earlier we were trading couple points below ath. Volume last week was low but I can’t see this breaking down again this early after that much selling. I still expect 20400/20700 to be hit next week. Anything above would be bad for bears.
current market cycle: strong bear trend but pullback expected
key levels: 19300 - 20700
bull case: Bulls stopped the selling and printed a green week, which was only due to a 100 point rally in the final 10min of Friday. They are expect to bounce this higher but for now it’s not happening. Their first target is a daily close above 20k and next would be the daily 20ema around 20300. Market has now touched the bull trend line from 2023-01, 3 times and it also touched the monthly 20ema 3 times with it. I can not see this just breaking down below it, without a bigger bounce.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Bears showing incredible strength by keeping the market mostly below 20k. They even printed a couple ticks below the previous low on Friday, which means lower lows and higher highs and that’s always something that happens in trading ranges, not in trends. Bears are fine with going sideways because they can hold on to longer term positions comfortably. As long as any bounce stays below the 50% retracement to 20700, bears are good and expect more selling after we have formed a proper channel. You can never expect a -14% move to just get more follow-through selling after a couple of days. If any market does it, it’s a parabolic climax which can go on for long but are unsustainable. My best guess on how the next weeks could play out is in my chart since last week and is valid until market does something very different.
Invalidation is above 21100.
short term: Still… Heavy bullish bias for 20000 and likely 20400. Above 20500 air would get real thin again, if this was the start of a bear market. For now I think the pattern from 2024-07 is more likely to repeat than the bear trend as drawn on the chart. No updates since we moved sideways. Important to note, again, is that the longer the market stays at these lows, the more accepted the prices are and the higher the odds of another strong leg down.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Updated the possible bear trend and added a bullish alternative to show what we did in 2024. For now the bullish path is more likely.
comment: Bulls were not strong enough to trap late bears and every bear selling below 19700 had multiple chances of exiting break-even or even with a profit. I still think we need to see a bigger bounce but for now market is in balance at 19800, which is bad for the bulls. We need to form a proper channel down and going sideways to do so would be amazing for the bears and a show of big strength by them. 23 days earlier we were trading couple points below ath. Volume last week was low but I can’t see this breaking down again this early after that much selling. I still expect 20400/20700 to be hit next week. Anything above would be bad for bears.
current market cycle: strong bear trend but pullback expected
key levels: 19300 - 20700
bull case: Bulls stopped the selling and printed a green week, which was only due to a 100 point rally in the final 10min of Friday. They are expect to bounce this higher but for now it’s not happening. Their first target is a daily close above 20k and next would be the daily 20ema around 20300. Market has now touched the bull trend line from 2023-01, 3 times and it also touched the monthly 20ema 3 times with it. I can not see this just breaking down below it, without a bigger bounce.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Bears showing incredible strength by keeping the market mostly below 20k. They even printed a couple ticks below the previous low on Friday, which means lower lows and higher highs and that’s always something that happens in trading ranges, not in trends. Bears are fine with going sideways because they can hold on to longer term positions comfortably. As long as any bounce stays below the 50% retracement to 20700, bears are good and expect more selling after we have formed a proper channel. You can never expect a -14% move to just get more follow-through selling after a couple of days. If any market does it, it’s a parabolic climax which can go on for long but are unsustainable. My best guess on how the next weeks could play out is in my chart since last week and is valid until market does something very different.
Invalidation is above 21100.
short term: Still… Heavy bullish bias for 20000 and likely 20400. Above 20500 air would get real thin again, if this was the start of a bear market. For now I think the pattern from 2024-07 is more likely to repeat than the bear trend as drawn on the chart. No updates since we moved sideways. Important to note, again, is that the longer the market stays at these lows, the more accepted the prices are and the higher the odds of another strong leg down.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Updated the possible bear trend and added a bullish alternative to show what we did in 2024. For now the bullish path is more likely.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.