#202514 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futures
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: W3 has likely concluded and I expect the same price action as for W2. Market is respecting technicals precisely. Look at the chart and the obvious numbers and lines. We can always do an over- or undershoot but for now I don’t think looking for shorts after two days of crashing make any sense.
current market cycle: strong bear trend
key levels: 16000 - 19600
bull case: Bulls still running for the exits but we have fallen too much too fast and we are getting into value territory for bigger players to buy the dip. Almost nothing is ever as bad as these extreme market reactions want to trap you into. Not to the downside and certainly not to the upside but to the upside everyone is busy pounding their chest because they are such a genius for making money in a bull market. Bulls want a squeeze up to 19000, that’s about it. Bear trend line around 18800-19000 will most likely get hit over the next 2 weeks.
Invalidation is below 17000.
bear case: Same reasoning as for dax. Bears want the big bull trend line around 16500 but they won’t get there in a straight line. W4 is likely around the corner. If we stay below 18800, that would once again leave another gap open and be another show of big strength by the bears.
Invalidation is above 19100.
short term: W3 has likely concluded, shorting below 18000 is really really not a good trade unless it’s a momentum scalp. Looking to scalp some longs on the squeeze up.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. Clear W1 of this bear trend. Market now has to close below 19000 to confirm W3. Depending on how deep W3 goes, W5 will either reach only around 17500 or the bull trend line around 16000.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Made the bear trend clear and my expectation for W4 and W5. As always, it’s a guess.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.