Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market made a lower high. Most important fact today. Higher low also but for bears it was more important than for the bulls. Range is contracting between 20300 and 20730, so play it. News bombs will likely determine what we will do tomorrow. Embrace the volatility. Trade small and take profits along the way.
current market cycle: trading range - only daily closes below 20000 mark the end of this bull trend
key levels: 20300 - 20730 (above 20730 we will likely go for 21k / below 20300 is 20000)
bull case: Bulls are in reach to break the bear channel and melt higher again. They need to break above tomorrow or bears might do the unthinkable and go below 20000 into the weekend. We have corrected 10% from the ath and a bounce would be a bit more fitting than continuation. My W2 target is around 21200. Very important for bulls is to print higher lows tomorrow, means staying above 20215.
Invalidation is below 20215.
bear case: Bears continue to have deep intraday bear legs so bulls are not too happy in buying high, which is probably why we are contracting again. Bears want to continue this sharp sell off into the weekend, likely below the big round number 20000. They are still in control until the bear channel is broken.
Invalidation is above 21740.
short term: Neutral but I kinda slightly favor the bulls since we are at the 2024-11, 2025-02 and 2025-01 support. If the bear channel continues, so be it. Happily shorting this for 20k then but I’d be more surprised if we do not make new highs above 20740 tomorrow and test 21k again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000.
trade of the day: Range was clear and given, have to play it. Both sides made good money today.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.