Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Strongest bear bar after a 11 bar bear micro channel on the daily chart, that broke below the big bull trend line. I will never see this as even more bearish. Much more likely is that we are very close to an intermediate bottom and squeeze shorts big time. Only looking to long this. After a decent bounce we can talk lower targets again.
current market cycle: trading range - only daily closes below 20000 mark the end of this bull trend
key levels: 19000 - 21000
bull case: Bulls have to trap bears here or we will go for 19000 or even 18867 (2024-09 low) tomorrow. Bulls do not have many arguments until they produce better buying pressure. Every small rip is sold and market stayed below the 15m 20ema the whole day after it broke below it early in EU session. Bulls must claim 19600 for further upside and next would be weekly open at 19668. If bulls get above 19700, I think most bears will give up and wait for 20000 and either of the bear trend lines to be hit before shorting again.
Invalidation is below 19250.
bear case: Below 19250 we most likely go for 19000 or even 19668. Bears are still in full control but the selling is so overdone and climactic and any bigger bounce will likely do for this to completely melt much higher before bears join again. What are the odds of bears just falling through the multi-year bull trend line and keep going? Very. Very. Low. Not impossible but certainly nothing I would bet money on. For now it’s likely best to wait an see if bulls get make higher highs. If I had to guess I’d say we could have seen the lows today but it’s pure guesswork. Shorts make no sense down here and I will only look for longs for at least 19800.
Invalidation is above 20200.
short term: Can only be neutral for now. Having a bullish bias but bulls are not doing enough for now. I wait. 20k is my first target.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000.
trade of the day: Shorts once market broke below 20000 and failed to get above it again.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.