Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral. Today was really bad for the bulls. The rejection from 20000 should not have go so deep. I now think we will likely chop between 19000 - 20000 until Opex. Bulls had the momentum on their side and the breakout above 20100 was strong enough to go higher but here we are. Lows 19346 have to hold or we flush to 19k. Around 19700 I’d rather do jack shit. 50% of this range is Monday’s low at 19755m which was also late resistance today.
current market cycle: strong bear trend but pullback expected
key levels: 19000 - 21000
bull case: Bulls did good and then fumbled it hard. They now need to keep this a higher low above 19346 or we could flush down to 19000. Technically this is a trading range 19300 - 20200 and we could make lower lows and higher highs in this range, give or take. My assumption was stronger buying into opex but for that we needed to stay above 19700ish. Now what could convince me that this could become a strong short squeeze into Friday? Immediate reversal during Globex and a grind up to 20000 before EU opens. Very very unlikely. One last tiny argument bulls could have is the retest one but for that today’s low has to hold and we just have to grind up.
Invalidation is below 19604.
bear case: Bears outdoing themselves currently. Strong surprise today and now I think any upside is likely limited to around 21200. If bears are really strong, we make lower lows tomorrow and then chop into Opex on Friday. I see this as low probability and I would prefer sideways inside the current range.
short term: Neutral around 19700. Bearish around 20000 if bears come around again and bullish if we reverse strongly from either 19600 or 19400.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks.
trade of the day: Long during EU session was decent but more so for dax. This short on US open obviously but I don’t think it was easy, given the bullishness before.
comment: Neutral. Today was really bad for the bulls. The rejection from 20000 should not have go so deep. I now think we will likely chop between 19000 - 20000 until Opex. Bulls had the momentum on their side and the breakout above 20100 was strong enough to go higher but here we are. Lows 19346 have to hold or we flush to 19k. Around 19700 I’d rather do jack shit. 50% of this range is Monday’s low at 19755m which was also late resistance today.
current market cycle: strong bear trend but pullback expected
key levels: 19000 - 21000
bull case: Bulls did good and then fumbled it hard. They now need to keep this a higher low above 19346 or we could flush down to 19000. Technically this is a trading range 19300 - 20200 and we could make lower lows and higher highs in this range, give or take. My assumption was stronger buying into opex but for that we needed to stay above 19700ish. Now what could convince me that this could become a strong short squeeze into Friday? Immediate reversal during Globex and a grind up to 20000 before EU opens. Very very unlikely. One last tiny argument bulls could have is the retest one but for that today’s low has to hold and we just have to grind up.
Invalidation is below 19604.
bear case: Bears outdoing themselves currently. Strong surprise today and now I think any upside is likely limited to around 21200. If bears are really strong, we make lower lows tomorrow and then chop into Opex on Friday. I see this as low probability and I would prefer sideways inside the current range.
short term: Neutral around 19700. Bearish around 20000 if bears come around again and bullish if we reverse strongly from either 19600 or 19400.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks.
trade of the day: Long during EU session was decent but more so for dax. This short on US open obviously but I don’t think it was easy, given the bullishness before.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.