Good Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Not much changed last week so I do not change much of what I wrote then. Bulls want at least 20536 now and run all the stops from before the big sell-off. Bears are not doing anything at all, so bulls will likely get it. This could be a breakout-retest and I marked the area for that with the red rectangle. Small chance bears come around next week but for now it’s still too early to short. The bull wedge is about to break out over the next 1-2 days and if bulls stay above 19600, we should expect higher prices.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels for next week: 19000 - 21000
bull case: 20536 and then 21000. Those are the next targets and bulls are in full control of the market. The measured move from the buy spike at the lows is around 22350 and it’s possible that we get there. I think we need to see a pullback and how deep that will be. If we get only another sell spike and immediate buying for higher highs, we can also assume much higher prices. Above 21100 there is no reason not to go for 23000. Nothing of this changed to last week. Bulls preventing the bears from getting any decent pullback, which is uber bullish.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Problem for the bulls is, that we have not closed above the weekly 20ema for two weeks now and bears defending the prior lower high 20536. That was and will be my line in the sand next week. Gap close to it, we have no reason not to print a new ath but below19600 I think more bulls will give up, depending on the strength of the selling. As of now, nothing about the chart is bearish but one decent down day > -2% could change that.
Invalidation is above 20620ish.
short term: Neutral. Market went nowhere and trading on hope and fairy dust is not my thing. I wait.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-05-11: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish. Now I assume we will be in a trading range 16000 - 23000 for much longer. Same update as for dax, I guess we could go down and sideways over the next weeks/months and then have another squeeze into year end. Stairs up, elevator down.
comment: Not much changed last week so I do not change much of what I wrote then. Bulls want at least 20536 now and run all the stops from before the big sell-off. Bears are not doing anything at all, so bulls will likely get it. This could be a breakout-retest and I marked the area for that with the red rectangle. Small chance bears come around next week but for now it’s still too early to short. The bull wedge is about to break out over the next 1-2 days and if bulls stay above 19600, we should expect higher prices.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels for next week: 19000 - 21000
bull case: 20536 and then 21000. Those are the next targets and bulls are in full control of the market. The measured move from the buy spike at the lows is around 22350 and it’s possible that we get there. I think we need to see a pullback and how deep that will be. If we get only another sell spike and immediate buying for higher highs, we can also assume much higher prices. Above 21100 there is no reason not to go for 23000. Nothing of this changed to last week. Bulls preventing the bears from getting any decent pullback, which is uber bullish.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Problem for the bulls is, that we have not closed above the weekly 20ema for two weeks now and bears defending the prior lower high 20536. That was and will be my line in the sand next week. Gap close to it, we have no reason not to print a new ath but below19600 I think more bulls will give up, depending on the strength of the selling. As of now, nothing about the chart is bearish but one decent down day > -2% could change that.
Invalidation is above 20620ish.
short term: Neutral. Market went nowhere and trading on hope and fairy dust is not my thing. I wait.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-05-11: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish. Now I assume we will be in a trading range 16000 - 23000 for much longer. Same update as for dax, I guess we could go down and sideways over the next weeks/months and then have another squeeze into year end. Stairs up, elevator down.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.