Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls buy every dip and so should you, until it stops working. Clear target above and also clear invalidation level below us. Trade the wedge.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20700 - 22000
bull case: Bulls will likely get a third leg up tomorrow and if they want it bad, we could accelerate upwards for 22000. Right now the wedge is clear but if we get so close to 22000, I doubt market will hesitate to print it. Bulls have to stay above 21500 or risk a deeper pullback to 21300 and I don’t know if they could do 22000 afterwards. If we print below 21500, I think I’d expect a lower high below 21800 but for now they are in full control and are favored for 22000.
Invalidation is below 21500.
bear case: Literally the exact same play every day. Globex and EU sell it, US session pumps. Don’t fight it. Will end soon but just don’t be early. Below 21500 would be a start but only a daily close below 21000 will make me turn bear.
Invalidation is above 22100.
short term: Neutral because longs above 21650 are bad. Wait for a pullback to 21600 or 21550. Can you make them work? Sure but you would have to have a stop at least 21400 and scale in. Bears have nothing for now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-05-24: Will update this section more after the coming week but in general the thesis is as for dax. Down over the summer and sideways to up into year end. I don’t think the lows for this year are in.
trade of the day: Longing the double bottom on the 15m tf on US open at 24500.
comment: Bulls buy every dip and so should you, until it stops working. Clear target above and also clear invalidation level below us. Trade the wedge.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20700 - 22000
bull case: Bulls will likely get a third leg up tomorrow and if they want it bad, we could accelerate upwards for 22000. Right now the wedge is clear but if we get so close to 22000, I doubt market will hesitate to print it. Bulls have to stay above 21500 or risk a deeper pullback to 21300 and I don’t know if they could do 22000 afterwards. If we print below 21500, I think I’d expect a lower high below 21800 but for now they are in full control and are favored for 22000.
Invalidation is below 21500.
bear case: Literally the exact same play every day. Globex and EU sell it, US session pumps. Don’t fight it. Will end soon but just don’t be early. Below 21500 would be a start but only a daily close below 21000 will make me turn bear.
Invalidation is above 22100.
short term: Neutral because longs above 21650 are bad. Wait for a pullback to 21600 or 21550. Can you make them work? Sure but you would have to have a stop at least 21400 and scale in. Bears have nothing for now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-05-24: Will update this section more after the coming week but in general the thesis is as for dax. Down over the summer and sideways to up into year end. I don’t think the lows for this year are in.
trade of the day: Longing the double bottom on the 15m tf on US open at 24500.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.