Week of June 30 NQ/10Y/CL/GC
Updated
Week of June 24 NQ/10Y/CL/GC
I'm back! After a much needed vacation and a break from the charts at ATH - I am BACK on TradingView with a fresh weekly forecast.
This week will mark the start of Q3 - which is really important as we need to check back to reference the quarterly charts to see if there is any unfinished business we left behind. I am expecting Q3 to mark the final high in a parabolic fashion - that we wont see again in our lifetimes.
I will be discussing the Nasdaq NQ1! and the Dow YM1! as these 2 components when averaged together - constitute the SPX.
Nasdaq has a Quarterly IRL that we need to visit and rebalance. We saw a decent sell-off at the start of Jan and April for the start of Q1 and Q2 - I am expecting somewhat similar into July for Q3. SPX and the NDX are the only things that actually have a quarterly IRL to go revisit from here - so a slight pullback in tech and then the market is ready to run.
Weekly I wanna see this weeks high or possibly ATH swept to start a sell program to fill this qIRL. Downside targets could be anywhere between 18-18.6k.
We will know more once we see where it bottoms.
10yr backed up a little this week - but we are continuing our march lower. Bonds are SLOW moving - but they are clean.
Rates are headed lower because the global economy is weakening - and the bond market knows that. Stocks don't tend to ask WHY rates are dropping - at least not at first.
OIl has gone nowhere - we are the same price as April and October 23. I have no weekly context on oil so there is no trade for me in there - for now.
Gold was flat on the week - but it looks like the final move higher is coming soon.
From HERE - I want to see us flush back to the 2250 area - there is a confluence down there on the quarterly and weekly charts of a volume imbalance - and it also happens to be the quarterly CE.
Timing of this would make sense too - as precious metals and energy are typically the LAST sectors to rally in the final stage of a bull-market.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
Until next week - We'll be watching.
I'm back! After a much needed vacation and a break from the charts at ATH - I am BACK on TradingView with a fresh weekly forecast.
This week will mark the start of Q3 - which is really important as we need to check back to reference the quarterly charts to see if there is any unfinished business we left behind. I am expecting Q3 to mark the final high in a parabolic fashion - that we wont see again in our lifetimes.
I will be discussing the Nasdaq NQ1! and the Dow YM1! as these 2 components when averaged together - constitute the SPX.
Nasdaq has a Quarterly IRL that we need to visit and rebalance. We saw a decent sell-off at the start of Jan and April for the start of Q1 and Q2 - I am expecting somewhat similar into July for Q3. SPX and the NDX are the only things that actually have a quarterly IRL to go revisit from here - so a slight pullback in tech and then the market is ready to run.
Weekly I wanna see this weeks high or possibly ATH swept to start a sell program to fill this qIRL. Downside targets could be anywhere between 18-18.6k.
We will know more once we see where it bottoms.
10yr backed up a little this week - but we are continuing our march lower. Bonds are SLOW moving - but they are clean.
Rates are headed lower because the global economy is weakening - and the bond market knows that. Stocks don't tend to ask WHY rates are dropping - at least not at first.
OIl has gone nowhere - we are the same price as April and October 23. I have no weekly context on oil so there is no trade for me in there - for now.
Gold was flat on the week - but it looks like the final move higher is coming soon.
From HERE - I want to see us flush back to the 2250 area - there is a confluence down there on the quarterly and weekly charts of a volume imbalance - and it also happens to be the quarterly CE.
Timing of this would make sense too - as precious metals and energy are typically the LAST sectors to rally in the final stage of a bull-market.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
- I am looking for indexes to start a pullback this week led by NQ. Any pullback I expect to be fast and sharp - so that nobody can capitalize on it. Set your alerts - I am looking for ~ 18.5k on NQ1!
- I want to see Gold sweep the 2304 level, the continue to nATH.
Until next week - We'll be watching.
Trade closed: target reached
NQ hit nATH! From HERE - I want to see them drop it to 18-19k.
Go back and look at the first 2 weeks of Jan (Q1) and April (Q2) - they ALWAYS come for these quarterly IRLs in a hurry. From HERE - the largest Draw on Liquidity - is 19k.
IF we get a nice 5-8% pullback - everyone will panic and freak out and it will just rebuild the wall of worry for the market to climb. I fully expect Q3 to be the final parabolic leg higher in indexes.
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