### **📊 Full Technical Analysis – Microsoft (MSFT) – 1D Chart**
🚀 **Current Price:** **$415.24** (**-6.12% drop** today)
📉 **Massive sell-off after rejection at key resistance**
---
### **🔍 Key Technical Observations**
#### **1️⃣ Price Structure & Market Trend**
- **Previous Highs & Lows:**
- **Major Resistance at ~$460 (HH Zone - Area of Interest)**
- **Local Support at $390 - $400** (historical demand zone)
- **Current Fib Retracement Holding at 0.786 (~$414)**
- **Change of Character (CHoCH) Signals**:
- **Multiple bearish CHoCH formations** = Weak market structure
- Last bullish break of structure (BoS) led to a lower high → Potential **trend reversal confirmed**
#### **2️⃣ Fibonacci Levels Indicating Reversal Zones**
- **0.236 Fib (~$440)** → **Rejected hard**
- **0.382 Fib (~$432)** → **Intermediate resistance**
- **0.5 Fib (~$422 - Now lost)** → Could act as new resistance
- **0.618 Fib (~$414 - 415)** → **Testing now – critical zone!**
- **0.786 Fib (~$404 - Last defense for bulls)**
🔍 **If $414-$415 holds, we may see a bounce; if it fails, expect a drop to $404 or even $390.**
---
### **3️⃣ Volume & Delta Volume Shift**
📊 **Bearish Delta Volume (-200M)** – Heavy sell-side pressure
🔻 **37.96M Shares Sold** – Institutional-level sell-off
🔍 **Price dropped into a demand zone with high volume. This means either a strong bounce or a deeper breakdown.**
---
### **4️⃣ Moving Averages & Momentum**
✅ **Price tested 200-day EMA (potential support)**
⚠ **If it loses 200-EMA, next target is $390**
📉 **Momentum is weakening** – RSI likely below 50
---
### **🚀 Plan of Action: How to Trade This Setup?**
🔹 **Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal (Bounce from $414-$415 Support Zone)**
📌 **Entry:** **Go Long** above **$416-$418** if price reclaims support
🎯 **Target 1:** $432 (0.382 Fib)
🎯 **Target 2:** $440 (0.236 Fib)
🎯 **Target 3:** $460 (Major Resistance)
🛑 **Stop Loss:** **Below $410** to protect against a fakeout
📢 **Best Play? Wait for bullish confirmation (green candle) before entering a long!**
---
🔻 **Scenario 2: Breakdown Below $414 – Short Setup**
📌 **Entry:** If price breaks & closes below **$414**, **go short**
🎯 **Target 1:** **$404 (0.786 Fib Level)**
🎯 **Target 2:** **$390 (Major Support Zone)**
🛑 **Stop Loss:** Above **$420** (If price reclaims Fib levels, shorts are invalidated)
📢 **High Probability Short if volume continues to favor sellers!**
---
### **🔥 Options Trade Setup – High Probability Play**
**🛑 Bearish Play (If MSFT Breaks $414)**
📉 **BUY 1x MSFT $410 Put & SELL 1x MSFT $400 Put (Put Debit Spread)**
⏳ Expiration: Feb 16, 2025
🎯 Profit if MSFT drops toward $400
💰 **Risk/Reward: 3:1 (Low cost, high reward play)**
---
### **🏆 Final Verdict: High-Probability Trading Plan**
📌 **Key Level to Watch:** **$414-$415 Fib support**
📌 **Bullish above $418** → Buy dips for $432+
📌 **Bearish below $414** → Short for $404-$390
🚀 **What’s your take? Bullish bounce or further breakdown? Let’s trade smart!** 🔥📉
🚀 **Current Price:** **$415.24** (**-6.12% drop** today)
📉 **Massive sell-off after rejection at key resistance**
---
### **🔍 Key Technical Observations**
#### **1️⃣ Price Structure & Market Trend**
- **Previous Highs & Lows:**
- **Major Resistance at ~$460 (HH Zone - Area of Interest)**
- **Local Support at $390 - $400** (historical demand zone)
- **Current Fib Retracement Holding at 0.786 (~$414)**
- **Change of Character (CHoCH) Signals**:
- **Multiple bearish CHoCH formations** = Weak market structure
- Last bullish break of structure (BoS) led to a lower high → Potential **trend reversal confirmed**
#### **2️⃣ Fibonacci Levels Indicating Reversal Zones**
- **0.236 Fib (~$440)** → **Rejected hard**
- **0.382 Fib (~$432)** → **Intermediate resistance**
- **0.5 Fib (~$422 - Now lost)** → Could act as new resistance
- **0.618 Fib (~$414 - 415)** → **Testing now – critical zone!**
- **0.786 Fib (~$404 - Last defense for bulls)**
🔍 **If $414-$415 holds, we may see a bounce; if it fails, expect a drop to $404 or even $390.**
---
### **3️⃣ Volume & Delta Volume Shift**
📊 **Bearish Delta Volume (-200M)** – Heavy sell-side pressure
🔻 **37.96M Shares Sold** – Institutional-level sell-off
🔍 **Price dropped into a demand zone with high volume. This means either a strong bounce or a deeper breakdown.**
---
### **4️⃣ Moving Averages & Momentum**
✅ **Price tested 200-day EMA (potential support)**
⚠ **If it loses 200-EMA, next target is $390**
📉 **Momentum is weakening** – RSI likely below 50
---
### **🚀 Plan of Action: How to Trade This Setup?**
🔹 **Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal (Bounce from $414-$415 Support Zone)**
📌 **Entry:** **Go Long** above **$416-$418** if price reclaims support
🎯 **Target 1:** $432 (0.382 Fib)
🎯 **Target 2:** $440 (0.236 Fib)
🎯 **Target 3:** $460 (Major Resistance)
🛑 **Stop Loss:** **Below $410** to protect against a fakeout
📢 **Best Play? Wait for bullish confirmation (green candle) before entering a long!**
---
🔻 **Scenario 2: Breakdown Below $414 – Short Setup**
📌 **Entry:** If price breaks & closes below **$414**, **go short**
🎯 **Target 1:** **$404 (0.786 Fib Level)**
🎯 **Target 2:** **$390 (Major Support Zone)**
🛑 **Stop Loss:** Above **$420** (If price reclaims Fib levels, shorts are invalidated)
📢 **High Probability Short if volume continues to favor sellers!**
---
### **🔥 Options Trade Setup – High Probability Play**
**🛑 Bearish Play (If MSFT Breaks $414)**
📉 **BUY 1x MSFT $410 Put & SELL 1x MSFT $400 Put (Put Debit Spread)**
⏳ Expiration: Feb 16, 2025
🎯 Profit if MSFT drops toward $400
💰 **Risk/Reward: 3:1 (Low cost, high reward play)**
---
### **🏆 Final Verdict: High-Probability Trading Plan**
📌 **Key Level to Watch:** **$414-$415 Fib support**
📌 **Bullish above $418** → Buy dips for $432+
📌 **Bearish below $414** → Short for $404-$390
🚀 **What’s your take? Bullish bounce or further breakdown? Let’s trade smart!** 🔥📉
Note
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is a global technology leader known for its software, hardware, and cloud services. Here's a comprehensive financial analysis based on recent data:# MSFT is currently $415.57
**Recent Financial Performance:**
- **Revenue Growth:** In the quarter ending December 31, 2024, Microsoft reported revenues of $69.6 billion, marking a 12% increase year-over-year. ([apnews.com](apnews.com/article/1ce95c424d708b51f21873a5029c236e?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
- **Net Income:** The net income for the same period was $24.1 billion, reflecting a 10% growth compared to the previous year. ([apnews.com](apnews.com/article/1ce95c424d708b51f21873a5029c236e?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
**Segment Analysis:**
- **Cloud and AI:** Azure and other cloud services experienced a 31% growth, slightly below the previous quarter's 33%. The AI sector achieved an annual revenue run rate of $13 billion, a 175% year-over-year increase. ([theverge.com](theverge.com/news/602614/microsoft-earnings-q2-2025-ai-business-xbox?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
- **Gaming:** The gaming division saw a 7% decline in revenue, with Xbox hardware revenue decreasing by 29%. However, Xbox content and services revenue increased by 2%, driven by Xbox Game Pass's success. ([theverge.com](theverge.com/news/602614/microsoft-earnings-q2-2025-ai-business-xbox?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
**Investment in AI and Infrastructure:**
Microsoft plans to invest approximately $80 billion in AI and infrastructure during the current fiscal year, focusing on expanding data centers and integrating specialized chips. ([apnews.com](apnews.com/article/1ce95c424d708b51f21873a5029c236e?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
**Market Position and Outlook:**
Despite robust financials, Microsoft's shares dipped by 4.5% in after-hours trading due to concerns over cloud computing growth and increased competition from emerging AI models. ([reuters.com](reuters.com/technology/microsoft-beats-quarterly-revenue-estimates-2025-01-29/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
**Conclusion:**
Microsoft continues to demonstrate strong financial performance, particularly in its cloud and AI segments. While challenges exist in the gaming sector and competitive landscape, the company's substantial investments in AI and infrastructure position it well for future growth.
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TheRealMongoose
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.