Small fall for growth

Updated

The stock's growth has been impressive in recent times; however, the prediction indicates that if the next breakout does not occur by May 19th, the upper band of the 20-day Bollinger Band will decrease, which may hinder sustained attainment of levels above 320. (Red circle)
To facilitate further growth, it would be beneficial to reinforce the resistance level at 290 - 295 at the intersection of the 50-day moving average. (Green circle)
Additionally, the RSI's 70 level limits further growth potential. To push this level upward, a drop above the sudden, one-time average movement would be favorable.

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The BB bubble closure will take place next week.

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The exchange rate may break through the 323 level or even higher and then start consolidating there, or the situation may worsen as the upper band of the Bollinger Bands descends (the bubble closes). The RSI currently acts as a barrier to a stronger rally, but a strongly positive market sentiment could support another upward jump. However, if there is no positive news about raising the debt ceiling, in the uncertain environment, the rise will be hindered, and a decline is expected in the stock, which could push the exchange rate down to 300 or even lower, around 295-290.

Either way it happens, we are in for some exciting days. :O

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So... will Microsoft follow Amazon and start decreasing its stock price as predicted by the indicator?

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The upper band of the 20-day Bollinger Bands decreased today, and this pressure, along with the previous RSI value of 70 and market sentiment, caused a breakout in the stock's upward movement. Based on the indicator's forecast, the price could weaken to at least $300, but it could easily reach the $290 level as well.

And the target...

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Although it may seem joyful that the AI rally continues at Microsoft, the situation is perilous in terms of further growth. If the stock fails to stay above 320-323 in the next few days, it means that it has been rejected twice in a row from the higher price range, reinforcing the need for a correction or consolidation at previous levels. I believe the current surge is risky and clearly reflects market uncertainty. The RSI is still close to the 70 level, and the upper band of the 20-day Bollinger Bands can also deter buyers from the stock.

At the very least, the stock should weaken to around 312 and spend a few days in that range before the next jump. HOWEVER, for further growth, the best scenario would be a pullback to $300-303.

The market uncertainty is also evident in the fact that the candle is currently red, and buyers haven't really pushed the opening price further. For sustained growth, the stock price should experience a slight decline.

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With an astonishing turn of events, we closed yesterday with a green candle, brushing against the 70 level of the 14-day RSI (purple line, inverted RSI). If today we manage to close with a red candle, but still above 320, for example, opening at 324 and closing at 320.5, and if we can sustain this level in the following days without any irrational breakout, allowing the stock to settle, then it is possible that the agreement on raising the debt ceiling can push the price up to 330 next week and potentially even up to 343 from there.

Both today's trading and Tuesday's and Wednesday's will be very exciting, and practically anything is possible. Today, a negative news event or even excessive profit realization before the long weekend could bring the stock back to the slight downward trend it started. So be careful, good luck! :)

legend: 20-days BB orange line, 50-days SMA gray line, 200-days SMA turquoise line, 14-days reverse RSI purple line

BostonTrendLab

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