Short

MicroStrategy earnings

MSTR earnings are today, Wednesday 10/30 at 4pm. I'm posting this as a short because there's no logical reason for MicroStrategy to have such a drastic divergence from Bitcoin since September. With BTC +68% YTD at all time high levels and MSTR +280% YTD there's just no point being long MSTR all the way up here around 260 / share. The market can stay irrational longer than I think. However, MSTR is way past the point of a good risk : reward long in my opinion. If you're not a trader and are a perma Bitcoin bull, better off selling MSTR and putting the proceeds into BTC before this thing drops. This is my bias speculation. I'm curious to see how far the market will push MSTR beyond all common sense.

MSTR financials
Q1-24 EPS $-0.31
Q2-24 EPS $-0.57
Q3-24 EPS estimate $-0.11

MSTR options data
11/1/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 23,648
Call Volume Total 33,277
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.71
Put Open Interest Total 158,229
Call Open Interest Total 157,110
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.01

11/8/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 3,352
Call Volume Total 6,089
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.55
Put Open Interest Total 22,599
Call Open Interest Total 26,203
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.86

11/15/24 expiry
Put Volume Total2,413
Call Volume Total4,087
Put/Call Volume Ratio0.59
Put Open Interest Total160,616
Call Open Interest Total142,239
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.13

Note

Microstrategy lost -$1.56 EPS. MicroStrategy announces $42 billion capital plan including $21 billion ATM equity offering and a target of raising $21 billion in fixed-income securities. Over the next three years to buy more Bitcoin.

Note

MicroStrategy posted third-quarter net loss of $340 million, revenue fell to $116 million.

Note

Note

Here's another reason why to short MicroStrategy. If you divide Bitcoin / MicroStrategy (BTCUSD/MSTR) you can see that Bitcoin is at it's 7 year low compared to MSTR. This just doesn't add up or make common sense people. Especially since MSTR "core" business is a failure.

Note

Total Debt 3.91B.
Total Debt/Equity 137.75%.
Current Ratio 0.47.
Book Value Per Share 14.87
Market cap 45.21B
MicroStrategy owns 252,220 bitcoins as of Sept. 20, 2024. MicroStrategy states the average purchase price as $39,292 USD per bitcoin with a total cost of $9.9 billion USD. Bitcoin holdings at 69k = $17.4 B

Note

Why should MSTR be up 45% for the month of October while Bitcoin is only up 9% for the month?

Note

MSTR heading back down to it's SMA20:

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