MT - Is this the TOP or are we going to 32.5? - ARCELORMITTAL SA
Updated
ArcelorMittal SA is the biggest steel manufacturer in the world.
We had a stellar run from the march low and we made good money with this stock. A lot of people believe it has steam left.
The big question, is this the top or are we going to go higher?
Some institutions have upgraded MT to anywhere between a 25-32.5 EUR target. We got the high steel prices, above average profitability, ECB support on their debt, excellent pickup in demand.
What do the charts say? The monthly shows lot's of promise, no signals we are at a top, if you believe in long term trend anylisis.
The weekly stochastics look a little overbought, but then again, stochastics arn't the best indicator during very strong upwards or downwards rally's.
I believe MT will see some selling off the top, and then try another stab at the 200MA which it broke above last week but fell back under on firday (200MA is white line on the chart below).
We had a stellar run from the march low and we made good money with this stock. A lot of people believe it has steam left.
The big question, is this the top or are we going to go higher?
Some institutions have upgraded MT to anywhere between a 25-32.5 EUR target. We got the high steel prices, above average profitability, ECB support on their debt, excellent pickup in demand.
What do the charts say? The monthly shows lot's of promise, no signals we are at a top, if you believe in long term trend anylisis.
The weekly stochastics look a little overbought, but then again, stochastics arn't the best indicator during very strong upwards or downwards rally's.
I believe MT will see some selling off the top, and then try another stab at the 200MA which it broke above last week but fell back under on firday (200MA is white line on the chart below).
Trade active
We are LONG ArcelorMittal as of yesterday monday, when we had a nice discount on the stock after it climbed back up. Sell-off days like last monday are great for gauging a stock's strength, does it sell off strongly with the market or not? MT sold off nicely in morning but quickly came back up even ending the day neutral. Today MT is in the green again, it looks like MT will re-test the top in the coming days.Trade active
Here you can see the ascending stairs pattern, it's quite predictable and monday's low brought us briefly to the bottom of the long term trend channel of the past month and we are now back up to the middle of the channel.I cannot predict a top on a stock like MT, as long as I see it going up I will be trading it up, it's given great returns past several months and so far no reason to believe this is about to change. We manage our risk by having SL's at smart levels, not by staying out of a stock because it looks "toppisch" or shorting it because we believe it "must come down sometime". I have heard it all before, it's not how the game works, stay objective, trade the chart in front of you.
Good luck out there!
Trade closed manually
sold before closing, we made a nice run from monday low till today's peak, support of 19.68 did not hold and we closed lower significantly, I therefore expect us to re-test support, it could mean we break down further, but too early to tell. Let's see how this develops, market in general is showing weakness.
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