Starting with the pair which makes no sense at current levels, considering the most meager of rate differentials at +2.5%, were it not for the SNB's deranged policy of "supporting the Swiss Franc as an inflation fighting measure" (while Swiss inflation is barely holding at 2%!) and with the Swiss Franc already at nose-bleed levels.
CHFJYP; a 50 year SHORT in the making;
The main chart is the MXNJPY - SHORT, also the premier carry-trade - while equities are trying to cling to the remnants of an already burst bubble.
While the Bank of Mexico has increased the rate differential (versus the static Yen) two-fold, in short order, that rate differential remained the same since 03/2023 while this pair continued on it's upward trajectory an additional 16%, incidentally inline with the SP500's identical increase during the same period;
Both of these pairs are at multi-year technical confluences, both pressing against significant resistance and showing distinct patterns of reversal. SHORT & SHORT
CHFJYP; a 50 year SHORT in the making;
The main chart is the MXNJPY - SHORT, also the premier carry-trade - while equities are trying to cling to the remnants of an already burst bubble.
While the Bank of Mexico has increased the rate differential (versus the static Yen) two-fold, in short order, that rate differential remained the same since 03/2023 while this pair continued on it's upward trajectory an additional 16%, incidentally inline with the SP500's identical increase during the same period;
Both of these pairs are at multi-year technical confluences, both pressing against significant resistance and showing distinct patterns of reversal. SHORT & SHORT
Note
As for a comparison of the CHFJPY to the EUR and EURJPY prospects;Note:
Here is a somewhat dated yet, generally still potentially informative backdrop to the SNB's policy over time:
emeritus.er.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/chair-of-entrepreneurial-risks-dam/documents/News feed/Swiss_Sovereign_Fund_Sornette_4Sept2015.pdf
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Mexico's yearly inflation rate dropped for the sixth month to 4.78%, the lowest since March 2021 and the core rate also fell to the lowest since February 2022. The Bank of Mexico has no plans to alter it's elevated 11.25% lending rate in the near term.MXNJPY;
There is an excellent SHORT Entry here!
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MXNJPYSHORT
Note
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If this H & S completes here, it is also likely to have long term implications!tradingview.com/x/rhiTtIBp/'
Short Entry - upon a break down!
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SHORT
These both - CHFJPY & MXNJPY - are rolling over, here.
Note
Watch out for this, though.
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MXNJPY - SHORTAn excellent second chance to go Short (or to double up) here, if not short, yet!
Here is the Big Picture view - Weekly;
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MXNJPYSHORT There is a significant Monthly reversal unfolding in this pair's PRZ!
Considering the near term prospects for a Peso rise (see related post), in conjunction with the technicalo picture here, it says a lot about the Yen's near term prospects, as well.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.