The Dow - Despite All Your Rage, You Still Just a Bear in a Cage
Updated
The prevailing narrative in these markets is still that you're in a bear market. Some stocks are in a bear market, specifically the tech junk that retail likes to lose money on, but the indexes are not in a bear market and have not been in a bear market.
But it's not that the fundamentals behind the world economy are not bearish. Trouble is brewing, and the trouble is big.
Yet, something should trigger your nose when fundamental danger like we have at present has emerged and yet the markets a) don't dump and b) stay high for a long time.
Contrary to how things usually are, the Dow is by far the most bullish of the three indexes. I'm calling for a new all time high on the Dow on the next bull impulse. And while you may, perhaps justifiably, guffaw at these moonboy-sounding words, just take a look for yourself:
Monthly
From a monthly view, based on the February high, the Dow is less than 7 percent away from its bull market highs and a run to 1/2 standard deviation higher is just 12 percent away. And February wasn't the highest month Dow posted since it bounced 23% in a straight line, crushing every other index by a mile during our "bear market."
December was higher.
Geopolitical Risks
As I warn in every post, the situation in China is really a lot more dire than you're being told. The Chinese Communist Party would have the world believe that Wuhan Pneumonia all but totally went away after Xi Jinping finally dropped his "Zero COVID" LARP and stopped welding people in their apartment buildings and making people take daily nucleic acid swabs in the park if they want to have access to public transit go to work the next day under the Party's social credit system.
But nothing could be further from the truth. Just go use a data aggregator like Our World in Data and compare cumulative case counts and death counts reported by China and any other major country in the world and ask yourself how the epicenter of the pandemic, the place where Patient Zero emerged, and the world's (formerly) largest country, could have an exponent less worth of COVID problems than even the countries who emulated the Communist Party's Zero COVID social credit system like Australia and New Zealand.
My point with the above is to say that the CCP is weak and is about to fall. But at the same time there is a faction of globalists in this world who want to install a one world government.
Think about it carefully, everyone: Can you have a "one world government" without the world's largest and most ancient country - China? Thus, if the one world government was to be installed while the CCP was still around, would it work? It would only work if they made the CCP the center of the New World Order. But why would they do that? Don't the globalists want to be the center of the NWO, the Kings of the World, the "New Gods"?
Thus, it's a quandary. And so as the CCP falls, it's very likely that the globalist factions will move to install the NWO and every single thing in our life will change.
What I want to point out to you all is this:
What is the actual problem with Communism? Is it a bunch of glasses wearing atheists with beards running around doing the Marxist cuckold fist and carrying the Flag of Blood while screaming "Viva la Revolution"?
The fundamental nature of communism and the ultimate goal of communism is to create a two class system.
One class will be the Party, specifically its elites, who rule. They eat the beef and drive the V8 S550s and live in the mansions and have air conditioning and go to the lake and the mountains.
The second class will be everyone else, which includes you, who will live in the pod, eat the bugs, live in the open air prison "15-minute cities," take the bus, ride the bike, rent the Nissan Leaf, and experience "beauty" and "nature" only on Zuckerberg's Metaverse.
It's as simple as that. You decide what kind of future you want. If you want to live like a human being, then show you're still "humane" and get rid of the Party and all its Marxist Leninist garbage, cultivate virtue, and take care of your family and your country.
The Call
The weekly bars show you a lot:
Namely, we've had three weeks of pinbars. Volatility has contracted and this pattern pretty much always predicates a big move. So, what direction is the big move coming?
If the ATH is only 7% away, then it seems to me that's a pretty likely target. But after three weeks of ranging in a 1,000 point range and this being the 15th week of sideways since the huge move, how many institutions and funds have gone long with stops below the most recent pivot?
A lot. If you were the market maker, wouldn't it make sense to liquidate them before running 12% higher and setting a new all time high? It would. It certainly would.
And the price action is set up just like this. The December low is the most recent weekly pivot and is a meager 1,200 points (4%~) under where we are, during a short week, that ends the month of February.
Moreover, there's a big liquidity gap between 30,000 and 32,000 that has never been touched since the post-October monster bounce.
The bearish impulse is over, but you're about to get a bear trap. The people who keep listening to Discord signal groups and charlatan furus, the mainstream media, Zerohedge, FinTwitt, all think it's time for us to trade to zero because FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKES and, like... more or less just because the Federal Reserve isn't done hiking the rates yet.
So, look to get long in the 30,000 range on the Dow, with a target over the ATH. 20% on the DIA ETF, which does not have Zero Day to Expiry options and whose options have lower implied volatility than SPY and QQQ, will serve you very well over the next two or three months.
Most importantly, don't take my word for anything. Not the call, not China, not anything. What you need to do is just think about it. Calm down. Be cold. Be sober. And really, really think about what's going on in this world, and decide for yourself what to do.
Until next time, stay safe. Earth and humans were not created to live as slaves to the Red Cult. They were created by the Divine, and it's as simple as that.
But it's not that the fundamentals behind the world economy are not bearish. Trouble is brewing, and the trouble is big.
Yet, something should trigger your nose when fundamental danger like we have at present has emerged and yet the markets a) don't dump and b) stay high for a long time.
Contrary to how things usually are, the Dow is by far the most bullish of the three indexes. I'm calling for a new all time high on the Dow on the next bull impulse. And while you may, perhaps justifiably, guffaw at these moonboy-sounding words, just take a look for yourself:
Monthly
From a monthly view, based on the February high, the Dow is less than 7 percent away from its bull market highs and a run to 1/2 standard deviation higher is just 12 percent away. And February wasn't the highest month Dow posted since it bounced 23% in a straight line, crushing every other index by a mile during our "bear market."
December was higher.
Geopolitical Risks
As I warn in every post, the situation in China is really a lot more dire than you're being told. The Chinese Communist Party would have the world believe that Wuhan Pneumonia all but totally went away after Xi Jinping finally dropped his "Zero COVID" LARP and stopped welding people in their apartment buildings and making people take daily nucleic acid swabs in the park if they want to have access to public transit go to work the next day under the Party's social credit system.
But nothing could be further from the truth. Just go use a data aggregator like Our World in Data and compare cumulative case counts and death counts reported by China and any other major country in the world and ask yourself how the epicenter of the pandemic, the place where Patient Zero emerged, and the world's (formerly) largest country, could have an exponent less worth of COVID problems than even the countries who emulated the Communist Party's Zero COVID social credit system like Australia and New Zealand.
My point with the above is to say that the CCP is weak and is about to fall. But at the same time there is a faction of globalists in this world who want to install a one world government.
Think about it carefully, everyone: Can you have a "one world government" without the world's largest and most ancient country - China? Thus, if the one world government was to be installed while the CCP was still around, would it work? It would only work if they made the CCP the center of the New World Order. But why would they do that? Don't the globalists want to be the center of the NWO, the Kings of the World, the "New Gods"?
Thus, it's a quandary. And so as the CCP falls, it's very likely that the globalist factions will move to install the NWO and every single thing in our life will change.
What I want to point out to you all is this:
What is the actual problem with Communism? Is it a bunch of glasses wearing atheists with beards running around doing the Marxist cuckold fist and carrying the Flag of Blood while screaming "Viva la Revolution"?
The fundamental nature of communism and the ultimate goal of communism is to create a two class system.
One class will be the Party, specifically its elites, who rule. They eat the beef and drive the V8 S550s and live in the mansions and have air conditioning and go to the lake and the mountains.
The second class will be everyone else, which includes you, who will live in the pod, eat the bugs, live in the open air prison "15-minute cities," take the bus, ride the bike, rent the Nissan Leaf, and experience "beauty" and "nature" only on Zuckerberg's Metaverse.
It's as simple as that. You decide what kind of future you want. If you want to live like a human being, then show you're still "humane" and get rid of the Party and all its Marxist Leninist garbage, cultivate virtue, and take care of your family and your country.
The Call
The weekly bars show you a lot:
Namely, we've had three weeks of pinbars. Volatility has contracted and this pattern pretty much always predicates a big move. So, what direction is the big move coming?
If the ATH is only 7% away, then it seems to me that's a pretty likely target. But after three weeks of ranging in a 1,000 point range and this being the 15th week of sideways since the huge move, how many institutions and funds have gone long with stops below the most recent pivot?
A lot. If you were the market maker, wouldn't it make sense to liquidate them before running 12% higher and setting a new all time high? It would. It certainly would.
And the price action is set up just like this. The December low is the most recent weekly pivot and is a meager 1,200 points (4%~) under where we are, during a short week, that ends the month of February.
Moreover, there's a big liquidity gap between 30,000 and 32,000 that has never been touched since the post-October monster bounce.
The bearish impulse is over, but you're about to get a bear trap. The people who keep listening to Discord signal groups and charlatan furus, the mainstream media, Zerohedge, FinTwitt, all think it's time for us to trade to zero because FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKES and, like... more or less just because the Federal Reserve isn't done hiking the rates yet.
So, look to get long in the 30,000 range on the Dow, with a target over the ATH. 20% on the DIA ETF, which does not have Zero Day to Expiry options and whose options have lower implied volatility than SPY and QQQ, will serve you very well over the next two or three months.
Most importantly, don't take my word for anything. Not the call, not China, not anything. What you need to do is just think about it. Calm down. Be cold. Be sober. And really, really think about what's going on in this world, and decide for yourself what to do.
Until next time, stay safe. Earth and humans were not created to live as slaves to the Red Cult. They were created by the Divine, and it's as simple as that.
Note
700 points in a day on no news ain't half shabby imo.Note
The DIA ETF to the $312 gap is what I really want to see coming.A raid to there into the first week of March and a bounce away would be the time to get long, although I do think the SPX goes first.
Note
Notable on the weekly is the Dow sweeped the December pivot by a few points.If you get a bounce on Monday-Tuesday into month end it may be an excellent put opportunity
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