Good Risk Reward + Fundamentals on NAIL
In october 2017, NAIL broke $50 for the first time and doubled in the next four months (around a 33% gain for the normal home-builder ETF). Since then, we've taken back the entirety of those gains as we worry about interest rate hikes and the overvaluing of the space. Point is, I think the selling's about over.
We have stabilized with a seeming double bottom in the low 50's.
While price has been falling, the macD and RSI have been rising (on average), creating bullish divergences. Furthermore, the MACD is close to flipping positive, and the RSI just crossed over its 5 day SMA.
While we are currently battling with ichimoku resistance, but I expect us to make it through the top within the next month.
I already own a bit of NAIL, averaging in $54-$56, and am looking to add on any pull back.
To add to the technicals, fundamentally construction earnings are still positive (see lenar earnings last week), and new home-building economic signals are surprisingly good. While no one wants to own the homebuilders as the cycle turns over, its my personal opinion that we won't get there in 2018, as long as we all continue to worry about it :).
49.50 is my stop loss, and if I hit my sell point I will most likely only sell half and hold the rest until the fundamentals tell me its time to sell.
This is for my educational purposes and is not meant as investment advice.
We have stabilized with a seeming double bottom in the low 50's.
While price has been falling, the macD and RSI have been rising (on average), creating bullish divergences. Furthermore, the MACD is close to flipping positive, and the RSI just crossed over its 5 day SMA.
While we are currently battling with ichimoku resistance, but I expect us to make it through the top within the next month.
I already own a bit of NAIL, averaging in $54-$56, and am looking to add on any pull back.
To add to the technicals, fundamentally construction earnings are still positive (see lenar earnings last week), and new home-building economic signals are surprisingly good. While no one wants to own the homebuilders as the cycle turns over, its my personal opinion that we won't get there in 2018, as long as we all continue to worry about it :).
49.50 is my stop loss, and if I hit my sell point I will most likely only sell half and hold the rest until the fundamentals tell me its time to sell.
This is for my educational purposes and is not meant as investment advice.
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