Long

NANO recovery - next wave

Updated

I think NANO has completed it's first major wave of a recovery in line with BTC turning more bullish. I think we will see a pullback/ ABC correction in line with BTC pulling back to 4450 - 4650 region. We can then go long on the next wave for 50%+ gains against BTC, expected to be in line with BTC pushing for 6k, so potential for 100% gains against the doller. In USD terms I'll be looking for a DCA entry from $1.35 down to $1.20, and DCA exit from $2 up to $2.50. Great to have USDT market on Binance now, which I think will help push this one and we will see much increased trading volume over the next weeks.

Note

Going to plan with a pretty clear ABC correction underway. We now need a lower low to complete the C. I'm looking at the 4hr as we already dropped below the 1H EMA200, the 4H EMA200 could be a useful support. There are two ways this could go - to bounce off the 4H EMA200 and recover out of a descending wedge, or to have a bigger drop as originally expected closer to the 27k sat level. We need to read this in the context of BTC, and I think BTC still needs a further drop to the 4500 - 4800 level, so I think a drop for nano below the 4H EMA200 is in order.

Therefore the planned long entry still looks good. We would like to see NANO recover back above the 4H EMA200 as soon as possible if it drops below, as it would be beneficial for the medium term to establish this as a key rising support.

Note

I think I have shown the dip to low on the above chart. Due to the historic support level at 26k I think it's unlikely we go much below that. We are looking for bullish divergence on the 4H when that new lower low is put in to confirm the entry.

Note

Redrawn the ABC correction based on latest information. We are just approaching the golden pocket on the retrace. No bullish divergence on the 4H yet but the possibility that we form a descending wedge and develop the divergence now, which would be ideal to signal the reversal for the next wave.

Ladder in to the long between the 0.618 and 0.786 retrace. USD targets for entry still roughly between $1.35 and $1.20, but I'd like to see BTC come back below 5k in the next week or two to facilitate a sensible entry.

Note

This one is looking very tasty now. On the last dip in the descending wedge the 1H RSI dropped low, around 14, giving us very high chances of bullish divergence if we get a final dip within the wedge. On the 4H the RSI dropped below 30, so very good chances there as well. So I'm looking for one more drop to 26k to 25.5k sats, if we stay in a wedge, having bullish divergence on both timeframes, then it is worth going long. The only disappointment is that the 4H EMA200 did not provide any support. For medium term bullish outlook we need to only stay a short time below this level, and we need to get back above the 1D EMA200 now around 30k and stay there. This is a trade where it may be worth adding on the way up if we find some headroom above those indicators.

Note

Setup is still very nice, we put in another low to better define the lower trendline of the wedge, no bullish divergence yet so we need some more sideways and one last drop to a lower low again. Aiming for entry around 24.5k now.

Unexpected bullish move for BTC overnight probably supports an entry on this one.

Trade active

ETH has taken a big bounce, we don't have any volume on the NANO breakout yet which is concerning, but it's time to go long with a modest size pot.

Note

Having gone through the 1H EMA200 this is a critical backtest of this level. I think we need to find support here to stay in the trade.

Note

Trying to get some clues about what may happen at this support from the 5m chart.
We have this descending resistance line coming down to a confluence of 1H EM200, 5m EMA200 and a horizontal support from the previous impulse. I think this could give us enough, but we need to see that descending resistance break in the next 30 minutes. From there we can move upwards to the next resistance and the 4H EMA200. If we can get on the right side of the 4H EMA200 then we can think about holding this trade towards the target.

Note

Worth referencing the NANOUSD chart too. We are up above the EMA200 on all timescales from 1D thru to 5min. If we continue up from here past the $2 level we will be established on the right side of the 1D EMA200 for the first time since Binance, the EMA200 would turn upwards from its current flat bottom and provide rising support - so that would create a bullish medium-long term scenario. What NANO does here in the next hours is going to be critical for the outlook for rest of 2019.

Trade closed manually

The binance hack shut this one down

spruce_g00se

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