NANO - Watch for Wave 3
Updated
So my last NANO trade was one of my more profitable trades (except for when I bought in December, of course), buying in at 76K and exiting around 135K.
NANO has outstanding tech and a LOT of good news coming - New wallets, Venezuela project, and roadmap. There are rumors that the roadmap will also contain major announcements as well, as the team has been constantly "reviewing it for legal reasons" according to their discord. The implication being, of course, something large enough to merit legal oversight is in the roadmap. I suppose we will see.
Now let's look at the technicals.
First, looking at a daily chart it is obvious NANO has broken its long-term downtrend and is now entering an area of consolidation before another run up. The only question is, of course, how low will it go during this consolidation - No one wants to buy too early, right?
So let's zoom in. Looking at the smaller timeframes we can see NANO boomed nicely into an obvious wave 1 followed by a period of consolidation. We have established several support and resistance areas, shown in the blue boxes, which align nicely with the standard fibonacci levels. This gives an idea of where we should be looking for entry. Furthermore we see some confirming indicators as well, although RSI has yet to significantly turn up it is leveling out, and the Wave Trend oscillator is vastly oversold. While certainly not enough to confirm bullishness, it's enough to add confidence to a long position given it is also occuring at a support level and after a long-term bear trend break.
As a more aggressive trader with higher risk tolerance, I re-entered NANO at the 118,750 satoshi level. There is a significant amount of buy support in this area and it has been rejected on multiple occasions. If 118 breaks down I will exit this trade and rebuy at the 105 support level areas. It's important to remember to look at this not as a failed trade but simply as an opportunity for a cheaper entry. I will be watching volume as we approach significant resistance levels and trading appropriately - without increasing volume I will be more likely to take profits at earlier levels.
NANO is an incredibly volatile asset intra-day, and it would also be possible to take profits at the major resistance levels, rebuying on the rejection each time. As always, watch volume when attempting these sorts of trades, as it is the most telling early indicator of a temporary (or permanent) resistance rejection. I do not typically do this as I have a day job and can't watch the charts constantly.
So, in short:
Entry 1: 118,750 satoshi
Stop loss 1: 116,000 satoshi
Entry 2: 105,750 satoshi
Stop loss 2: 97,000 satoshi (more rope here as one can expect large amounts of volatility from weak hands)
Targets:
Target 1: 140K satoshi (first resistance level)
Target 2: 160K satoshi (second resistance level)
Target 3: 200K satoshi ( wave three confirmed, play the bounce)
Target 4: 240K satoshi (full wave three execution, very ambitious target).
Estimated timeline: 3 days to 3 weeks (it's crypto, timelines are impossible).
Finally - always watch the king. BTC price rules all. If BTC starts looking bearish... you know what to do. And BTC is certainly at some critical levels right now. Inversely, if BTC pumps like crazy it could destroy alts as well. Basically we want slow, steady growth from BTC.
NANO has outstanding tech and a LOT of good news coming - New wallets, Venezuela project, and roadmap. There are rumors that the roadmap will also contain major announcements as well, as the team has been constantly "reviewing it for legal reasons" according to their discord. The implication being, of course, something large enough to merit legal oversight is in the roadmap. I suppose we will see.
Now let's look at the technicals.
First, looking at a daily chart it is obvious NANO has broken its long-term downtrend and is now entering an area of consolidation before another run up. The only question is, of course, how low will it go during this consolidation - No one wants to buy too early, right?
So let's zoom in. Looking at the smaller timeframes we can see NANO boomed nicely into an obvious wave 1 followed by a period of consolidation. We have established several support and resistance areas, shown in the blue boxes, which align nicely with the standard fibonacci levels. This gives an idea of where we should be looking for entry. Furthermore we see some confirming indicators as well, although RSI has yet to significantly turn up it is leveling out, and the Wave Trend oscillator is vastly oversold. While certainly not enough to confirm bullishness, it's enough to add confidence to a long position given it is also occuring at a support level and after a long-term bear trend break.
As a more aggressive trader with higher risk tolerance, I re-entered NANO at the 118,750 satoshi level. There is a significant amount of buy support in this area and it has been rejected on multiple occasions. If 118 breaks down I will exit this trade and rebuy at the 105 support level areas. It's important to remember to look at this not as a failed trade but simply as an opportunity for a cheaper entry. I will be watching volume as we approach significant resistance levels and trading appropriately - without increasing volume I will be more likely to take profits at earlier levels.
NANO is an incredibly volatile asset intra-day, and it would also be possible to take profits at the major resistance levels, rebuying on the rejection each time. As always, watch volume when attempting these sorts of trades, as it is the most telling early indicator of a temporary (or permanent) resistance rejection. I do not typically do this as I have a day job and can't watch the charts constantly.
So, in short:
Entry 1: 118,750 satoshi
Stop loss 1: 116,000 satoshi
Entry 2: 105,750 satoshi
Stop loss 2: 97,000 satoshi (more rope here as one can expect large amounts of volatility from weak hands)
Targets:
Target 1: 140K satoshi (first resistance level)
Target 2: 160K satoshi (second resistance level)
Target 3: 200K satoshi ( wave three confirmed, play the bounce)
Target 4: 240K satoshi (full wave three execution, very ambitious target).
Estimated timeline: 3 days to 3 weeks (it's crypto, timelines are impossible).
Finally - always watch the king. BTC price rules all. If BTC starts looking bearish... you know what to do. And BTC is certainly at some critical levels right now. Inversely, if BTC pumps like crazy it could destroy alts as well. Basically we want slow, steady growth from BTC.
Trade active
BINANCE HAS A HACK.All altcoins just plummeted and were used to buy VIA (Never researched it) at super-market premium prices. We're not sure why this happened but it seems as if certain users had their API keys exported at some point and these keys were used to sell their alts and market price and purchase VIA.
This would explain why so many alts took a dump at the same time. Congrats if you had a low buy order on basically any alt during this. For now I'm going to stay calm and be more lenient with my stop-loss order as this situation gets handled.
Trade active
Well bitcoin got completely wrecked by the binance hack. Honestly there's no TA or predictions that can handle something like that.That being said, NANO has held up surprisingly well in satoshi value. We'll see how this unfoldds. For now I am continuing to hold as selling here is just plain stupid. We can at least wait for a BTC dead-cat or something similar to back out into fiat.
My trading goals are typically to acquire as much BTC as possible, however, as I believe in it long-term. If yours are to acquire as much fiat as possible then you may need to adjust your risk to align better with BTC moves.
Trade closed: stop reached
Obviously my stop was hit at 116. However we are seeing insanely strong support at the 108 levels, so we will see if we get a rebound here.Note
We have fallen exponentially down to secondary support.Just like BTC hitting 6K, this can often lead to a major short-term reversal. I will be conservative with my entry and wait for a confirming candle on volume, however, as the entire market is extremely weak. That being said we are seeing some strong buy support in this area.
Note
If you entered at the secondary support level, congratulations on the scalp!Make sure you set some tight stops here, as we could easily reject this level (previously support, now resistance) and fall back into the major bear trend, breaking 100K as well.
ALWAYS protect your profits, even at these levels.
Trade closed: target reached
Target 1 reached, trade closed due to bomber FUD. This is likely going to continue down off this for a while. Sold @ 133.
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