Long

NANOBTC: Thoughts on retracement and targets to buy.

Updated

NANOBTC appears to be trading very free without external events influencing it and with a very strong initial impulse and increasing volume, so it should be a good target for Elliot Wave analysis, here combined with pitchfork and resistance/support levels (green lines) from the past months.

This is all dependent on BTC staying in its current range - if BTC drops down to 5600 - 5200 (as is possible in this timeframe) then we'll likely see EW failure on NANOBTC and retracement to much lower levels.

Constructive criticism welcomed.

Comment

I went long around 43k sats for the start of wave 5 but have closed the position at a breakeven now because BTC is dropping out of an ascending wedge, and we never saw confirmation that wave 5 had commenced, but have tested 43k resistance 3 times now whilst volume continues to drop.

I suspect that we have not yet finished the "C" of the ABC correction within wave 4, and will need to go down to the 0.5 or 0.618 fib levels. Which one depends on how much BTC drops out - or could mean failure of the EW sequence completely if BTC drops too far. The EMA 200 has risen up to the 0.5 fib level so that could provide extra support for a bounce.

I have shown 3 scenarios for the reversal below, it's still possible for us to break up from here but I'll wait for confirmation and for BTC to stabilise before going long again.

Comment

Here we go down, looking for a bounce around the 200 EMA and 0.5 fib level near 39.5k sats

Comment

Nice strong bounce off the 0.5 fib and 200 EMA, now we can form a descending wedge and move up from here, perhaps with one more test dipping slightly below the 0.5 fib level to confirm the wedge.. or equally valid we can push the wedge down to the 0.618 and move up from there..

Comment

The 200 EMA didn’t last long and it looks like we are heading down to the 0.618 at 35.5k. It is probably worth a buy there and anywhere beneath that down to the floor for this count at 31.7k. If we go below that the count is invalid and we need to start again.

Comment

This will be a high risk trade because of BTC, which I can see dropping out of an ascending wedge, and possibly also a larger bear flag, over the next 24 - 36 hrs. If this happens I think NANO will drop harder and invalidate the count. I am just working on an alternate count to be aware of.

I will probably trade it if we hit the 0.618 but with a relatively small pot. A useful stop loss has to be at the 29k sat level which would be a big risk (-17%) but for big potential gain (~100%). Once in the trade we'll need to tighten the stop regularly in case of BTC dropping.

BTC:

Comment

Alternate count on NANO, in the case that we break 31k, we then have to assume that the whole move up to 56k was a complete motive wave, in which case we can get up to a 0.786 retrace back to 22k sats. I think this is the scenario if BTC drops out in the next day or two.

Comment

We still didn't hit the 0.618, BTC dropped and then bounced some which has protected NANO

Comment

We still didn't hit the 0.618, BTC dropped and then bounced some which has protected NANO from going down any further and caused a fairly good bounce for NANO. However I still think the direction of BTC is down over the next 24 hrs and I'd like to see NANO hit or puncture the 0.618 before considering a long.

It now looks like a descending wedge to me, which is encouraging for a wave 4, suggesting a reversal. I'd like to see the top of the wedge confirmed again and the bottom confirmed once more just below the 0.618.

Volume has been declining but there is some serious action as I'm writing this, the top of the wedge has been reconfirmed since my last sentence and there's a suggestion that the volume decline is bottoming out. I'm not going to FOMO in to the current surge but wait until tomorrow, hopefully for the last small dip with volume building further, that would be the time to buy.

Comment

Possible bull pennant after the break from the descending wedge. I think the ABC correction and therefore the completion of wave 4 is now confirmed. This has been good TA but not the best trade entry decision making. Looking for an entry at 44.4k sats or upon break from the pennant.

Comment

Went long at 43.8k, volume doesn’t look very convincing, not sure I can sleep on this trade, it’s just driven by the BTC surge.

Comment

Evening folks, I am still long on this one - primarily because of the positive BTC action today. There were much better alts to be in today rather than nano, but I expect the boost will filter through to nano at some point in the next 24hrs. The bull pennant keeps getting pushed out further and further with no break, but there is now just a hint at a turnaround on the volume and I’ve got to trust the count here and expect we will go up.

Comment

The bull pennant went the wrong way, I exited a good portion of my position at a small loss to BTC but was still able to go back to tether at a USD profit. It’s possible that this is still a bull flag of sorts and we’ve found support on the EMA200 on the 1hr, so have to watch and wait now.

Comment

This could be a deep 0.786 retrace on subwaves 1-2. But there's still the possibility to drop to 30k if the original count is not valid. I might enter with a small position around 38k and see what happens.

Comment

We have a break from the descending wedge, volume isn't great yet. This could be the start of subwave 3 and we'd still be on the original plan (just a little behind schedule). If that's the case we'd expect subwave 3 to approach the 1.618 extension - approaching the previous high of 57k sats.

Comment

This TA has been killed by BTC diving back down, looks to be only a matter of time before we dip below 31.5k and the wave count is invalid. I will post some new TA once BTC has hit bottom.

Order cancelled

New analysis here;

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