NANO, and How I Used it To Time a Bottom
Updated
Whether or not we have truly seen bottom in the crypto market remains to be seen, but as I mentioned in my BTCUSD analysis(tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/WPjPxaEf-Bitcoin-And-The-Road-Ahead/), NANOUSD is the coin that helped me to see the bigger picture. Why? Because I decided to compare it with an old BTCUSD bubble cycle from 2011, when it similarly rose from cents to around $30, only to crash back to $2. I used some simple math to predict the absolute bottom range for NANO before it happened:
In 2011, (looking at the LOG GRAPH ONLY), the jumping off point of BTCUSD (low before the rise) was around $0.68. It then skyrocketed to around $29.60. It then declined to a low of $2.05, which is a factor of around 3 from $0.68.
If you apply this math to NANOUSD at the end of 2017, you see that it began its parabolic rise around $0.20-30. It's important to note that while the coin was trading at a low of $0.10 before the rise, that is not when it really jumped If you multiply this range by a factor of 3, you arrive at $0.60-0.90. The average of this range is $0.70. I thought originally that BTCUSD would have to crash to 4K for this to happen, but NANO did this independently on August 13th, 2018, so I bought some more around $0.85 after I saw it reversing quickly, because I thought why not? Wish I had bought more though, but I didn't want to risk much at that point. Picked up a couple of other coins on that drop, because it seemed like a true capitulation event to me. The alt buying at that moment is what saved Bitcoin from dropping below 5.8K, in my opinion.
In any case, currently after its huge reversal, it has cooled off considerably. This was to be expected. We are now in the process of forming an Adam & Eve bottom, with a base around 26k satoshis. If we drop below there, we should find support before 20k, but I think this will be the base. We also keep getting rejected off 29-30k (as we just saw today as well). Just as BTCUSD stayed in the $5 range for six months before finally starting another bull run, NANO will likely do the same in this $1.80-2.00 range. It's interesting to note that this is an increase of 2.67 from its bottom at around $0.75, whereas BTC stagnated at a factor of 2.5 from its bottom in 2011.
I expect NANO's adoption cycle to play out similarly, and we may see an enormous pop in the near future. 6 months from August 13th is around Valentine's day, 2019. Let's see what happens. It could pop sooner, as the market cycles seem to have sped up a little. This is another coin I expect to use once adoption increases.
BUY:
2600-3000
STOP LOSS: 2600 (although stop losses in crypto are dangerous. Someone can market sell into supply at any time and flush you out before a parabolic rise. Happened with LTC last December)
SELL:
6000 Short term previous strong support turned strong resistance
8000
10000
14000
??????
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and I am not a qualified financial advisor. This is one of my own investments, and a vision for how this could play out in the future. Of course, NANO could fail as a currency, but currently a lot of work is being done on improving it and it is being accepted by more merchants every day. This is an example of how belief works in emerging forms of money. NANO has a strong group of believers behind it, so I'm banking on it succeeding.
-Victor Cobra
In 2011, (looking at the LOG GRAPH ONLY), the jumping off point of BTCUSD (low before the rise) was around $0.68. It then skyrocketed to around $29.60. It then declined to a low of $2.05, which is a factor of around 3 from $0.68.
If you apply this math to NANOUSD at the end of 2017, you see that it began its parabolic rise around $0.20-30. It's important to note that while the coin was trading at a low of $0.10 before the rise, that is not when it really jumped If you multiply this range by a factor of 3, you arrive at $0.60-0.90. The average of this range is $0.70. I thought originally that BTCUSD would have to crash to 4K for this to happen, but NANO did this independently on August 13th, 2018, so I bought some more around $0.85 after I saw it reversing quickly, because I thought why not? Wish I had bought more though, but I didn't want to risk much at that point. Picked up a couple of other coins on that drop, because it seemed like a true capitulation event to me. The alt buying at that moment is what saved Bitcoin from dropping below 5.8K, in my opinion.
In any case, currently after its huge reversal, it has cooled off considerably. This was to be expected. We are now in the process of forming an Adam & Eve bottom, with a base around 26k satoshis. If we drop below there, we should find support before 20k, but I think this will be the base. We also keep getting rejected off 29-30k (as we just saw today as well). Just as BTCUSD stayed in the $5 range for six months before finally starting another bull run, NANO will likely do the same in this $1.80-2.00 range. It's interesting to note that this is an increase of 2.67 from its bottom at around $0.75, whereas BTC stagnated at a factor of 2.5 from its bottom in 2011.
I expect NANO's adoption cycle to play out similarly, and we may see an enormous pop in the near future. 6 months from August 13th is around Valentine's day, 2019. Let's see what happens. It could pop sooner, as the market cycles seem to have sped up a little. This is another coin I expect to use once adoption increases.
BUY:
2600-3000
STOP LOSS: 2600 (although stop losses in crypto are dangerous. Someone can market sell into supply at any time and flush you out before a parabolic rise. Happened with LTC last December)
SELL:
6000 Short term previous strong support turned strong resistance
8000
10000
14000
??????
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and I am not a qualified financial advisor. This is one of my own investments, and a vision for how this could play out in the future. Of course, NANO could fail as a currency, but currently a lot of work is being done on improving it and it is being accepted by more merchants every day. This is an example of how belief works in emerging forms of money. NANO has a strong group of believers behind it, so I'm banking on it succeeding.
-Victor Cobra
Note
The average of 0.60-0.90 is 0.75, not 0.70. Silly me. Just wanted to correct this out of OCD. Turns out 0.75 was the EXACT bottom anyway.Note
We're really pinching on the NANOBTC chart. Could be time for a squeeze up, or down into the 2600 support. Approaching lower trend line on the USD pair:
Note
Posted this in the comment section by accident hahaha. Hate how you can't delete stuff on here. Anyway:We are right at the blue support on the USD chart. Decent place for a long. On the other hand, the BTC chart has shown that we might need to dip one more time back down to 2600, as we seem to have broken down. Could be a bear trap there. Be careful.
Note
Nice rejection candle. Might move up a bit from here to test the $2.20 resistance. Trade active
Just went in with a small trading position.Trade closed manually
Exited my small position at 2882 because BTC looks weak and we didn't bounce much at support. Will probably have to test the 2600 zone.Note
Looks like we're getting close to the target zone, if we haven't reached it already.Note
We are right at the pink support on the USD chart. If it breaks, we can expect to go down to $1.60.Note
haven't updated this in a while, but we're back down to the $1 support area from August. We may have to test the $0.75-0.85 zone as well. The market is looking very different from what I was expecting, which shows that I was wrong about the market's direction. The only hope for NANO is that the $0.75 area holds again and we see a nice double bottom. If BTC heads down to 3K and makes that area its bottom, this would likely happen.Note
Update: 
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