The Great NANO Breakout - Part 3
Updated
I'm back with a NANO update. I first called this breakout in August, 2020, but NANO stagnated for a while, really testing the patience of holders. I know many exited during this period, giving up entirely. Here's the original analysis: 
Nevertheless, NANO has made its way up to some of my bullish targets. I spent a while accumulating this one, so it felt particularly good once it finally started to move. I timed my second NANO Breakout call a little better in January 2021, right before price quickly tripled:
As I mentioned in my first live stream, NANO price was likely not affected at all by the spam attack. It was timed well for broader market consolidation. In fact, it has followed XLM price action almost perfectly. This is quite astounding. Take a look at these charts, side by side:
Both have found support near the 100 day MA (yellow). On the NANO weekly chart, it has held the 9 EMA, which usually holds price during bull markets. What I gather from this is that NANO price is influenced by whales and algorithms that have always seemed to dominate much of the crypto market. Coins tend to pump in groups, as liquidity needs time to move around the market. Profit is taken from one group, and then it moves on to another, and of course profit flows in (and out) of Bitcoin.
The NANO correlation with XLM can also be explained by their inherent similarities. XLM does have a minimum balance requirement to mitigate spam, and it has microscopic fees. But they are both incredibly fast and cheap. NANO has a lower supply, so it perhaps holds that advantage. However, XLM has a DEX and can function as a platform, so it appears to have more utility. If NANO can continue to survive and make its way well back into the top 100, that would be a good sign. For now, it's sleeping, though hardly underperforming in the market. I think it just needs a bit of a morale boost. Hopefully it's a case of "what doesn't kill NANO just makes it stronger."
In order to continue its uptrend, NANO will need to clear the 50 day MA (red) and the important $6-8 resistance zone.
This zone was major support during the initial Bitgrail crash in 2018. If it breaks out from there, it can head straight up towards $10 and above. Anywhere from $12-17 is in the cards. If we enter a final blowoff phase for this bullish cycle soon, I can also see NANO making a new all-time high, but of course this is entirely speculative. Can we see triple digits at the end of this cycle? Let's see. The final phase is usually the most insane.
A new all-time high for NANO is actually not unrealistic. My smallest cap project (SLT) went from 98%+ down to a new ATH within just a couple of months. It has begun a new cycle against its base asset (XLM). If we look at the NANO/BTC chart, it hasn't even broken out yet. The lowest caps are easiest to pump, so it makes sense why SLT has already made new highs. If NANO did the same as SLT, it could go to $50+ within the next two months. And if Bitcoin doubles merely once more from here to 120k while NANO goes 10x on the ratio, that puts it over $100. Here's the NANO/BTC chart:
Zoomed in, you can see that it's close to breaking above the 100 day MA again (yellow). The last time this happened, it nearly tripled on the ratio.
On the bearish side, I don't want to see NANO break below the 100 day MA (currently $4.14). If this happens, it can head back to the previous triangle support, between $1.80 and $2.50, depending on where it lands.
This is not financial advice! My posts are meant for my personal record, speculation, and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
Nevertheless, NANO has made its way up to some of my bullish targets. I spent a while accumulating this one, so it felt particularly good once it finally started to move. I timed my second NANO Breakout call a little better in January 2021, right before price quickly tripled:
As I mentioned in my first live stream, NANO price was likely not affected at all by the spam attack. It was timed well for broader market consolidation. In fact, it has followed XLM price action almost perfectly. This is quite astounding. Take a look at these charts, side by side:
Both have found support near the 100 day MA (yellow). On the NANO weekly chart, it has held the 9 EMA, which usually holds price during bull markets. What I gather from this is that NANO price is influenced by whales and algorithms that have always seemed to dominate much of the crypto market. Coins tend to pump in groups, as liquidity needs time to move around the market. Profit is taken from one group, and then it moves on to another, and of course profit flows in (and out) of Bitcoin.
The NANO correlation with XLM can also be explained by their inherent similarities. XLM does have a minimum balance requirement to mitigate spam, and it has microscopic fees. But they are both incredibly fast and cheap. NANO has a lower supply, so it perhaps holds that advantage. However, XLM has a DEX and can function as a platform, so it appears to have more utility. If NANO can continue to survive and make its way well back into the top 100, that would be a good sign. For now, it's sleeping, though hardly underperforming in the market. I think it just needs a bit of a morale boost. Hopefully it's a case of "what doesn't kill NANO just makes it stronger."
In order to continue its uptrend, NANO will need to clear the 50 day MA (red) and the important $6-8 resistance zone.
This zone was major support during the initial Bitgrail crash in 2018. If it breaks out from there, it can head straight up towards $10 and above. Anywhere from $12-17 is in the cards. If we enter a final blowoff phase for this bullish cycle soon, I can also see NANO making a new all-time high, but of course this is entirely speculative. Can we see triple digits at the end of this cycle? Let's see. The final phase is usually the most insane.
A new all-time high for NANO is actually not unrealistic. My smallest cap project (SLT) went from 98%+ down to a new ATH within just a couple of months. It has begun a new cycle against its base asset (XLM). If we look at the NANO/BTC chart, it hasn't even broken out yet. The lowest caps are easiest to pump, so it makes sense why SLT has already made new highs. If NANO did the same as SLT, it could go to $50+ within the next two months. And if Bitcoin doubles merely once more from here to 120k while NANO goes 10x on the ratio, that puts it over $100. Here's the NANO/BTC chart:
Zoomed in, you can see that it's close to breaking above the 100 day MA again (yellow). The last time this happened, it nearly tripled on the ratio.
On the bearish side, I don't want to see NANO break below the 100 day MA (currently $4.14). If this happens, it can head back to the previous triangle support, between $1.80 and $2.50, depending on where it lands.
This is not financial advice! My posts are meant for my personal record, speculation, and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
Note
Look at that. Straight to $14, which is right in line with what I was thinking. Looks like it's outperforming XLM as well - the scarcity holds some advantage here. There's also less liquidity at the moment, with Binance suspending deposits/withdrawals. Could mean that there will be a sizable correction once deposits are re-enabled and more people can sell. Those who have kept their NANO on exchanges can take advantage here.Note
Still working its way within this HEAVY resistance zone. You can see just how heavy it is, based off the rejection from the $14-15 level. This isn't bearish yet - it just needs to find support at a higher level than before, which is what it's currently doing. As long as it doesn't close a week below the 9w EMA (orange), around $6.77, it should be good for consolidation and eventually a retest of the $10-17 range. Note
Still finding support at the 50 MA on the daily, which is a decent sign. This gives room for wicks below $6 though, if the market decides to retest some lower levels again. Note
NANO/BTC also had a fairly strong rejection, but is finding support at a previous resistance level. Looks good for continuation if the altcoin market continues to look strong. 
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