$NAS100 in retracement from previous swing low - what's next?
NAS100 dropped near 17.600 the previous Monday for Summer sell-off. Since that day it's been mostly bullish and recovering some of the early August losses. Currently the price is trading above 200 EMA in the 1h with the price approaching the 200 EMA at 4h. Could the recent upwards move see continuation with the index getting back into uptrend, or is this simply a correction period before further sell-off?I am reluctant to enter a long trade at this point (as it appears temporarily overbought), and envy those who bought the double bottom last Monday. Currently I see price is making higher highs but at the same time is loosing momentum (stochastic heatmap) and buying volume when comparing the two most recent major highs. The 50 SMA Bollinger bands also show that we are entering a consolidation phase after the recent surge. At this point, based on the 1h chart I will be looking for short opportunities if price rejects the 800 EMA (200 EMA at 4h) with some kind of bearish divergence.
I might be missing long opportunities at buying the dips near the 50-200 EMA (1h), not sure if this is the correct call but I sincerely would appreciate the feedback.
Good fortune with your trading!
PS: I'm not a financial advisor, just an average math guy trying to put his degree to some use and of course looking forwards to the community's thoughts.
Note
The above analysis is outdated - new evaluation of the conditions need to be performed. As it stands currently, the market at the daily timeframe was bullish, price retraced down to the 200 daily ema which held strong as a support and now price is moving upwards again. The positive results from recent US economical data fueled the upwards move. It's likely that we will see some retracement from this recent swing high because some investors might wish to book their profits, but overall the market appears bullish to me.
My bias remains that it is possible to see some short positions in the short term, however after a healthy retracement, I will be looking for long positions.
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