Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 19 Dec 2024
I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None - FOMC on Wednesday night
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Note: Did not trade FOMC on Wednesday, because generally I don’t like to trade news. For me, it’s more of a gamble than a situation where I can stack the probabilities in my favour.
Morning analysis:
FOMC reaction was huge, with price plummeting through the floor.
4H and Daily fib levels were all smashed. The last remaining fib level in the morning was the W 0.618 fib level.
A huge DT had formed on the D TF (marked in green lines). D neckline was broken down and price had travelled to the profit target zone (as marked by the green vertical line).
Price had touched the W 0.618 fib level and moved back up, showing a strong reaction to this last line of defence for the bulls.
In this case, because price had reached profit target, I was looking for a buy.
If price had not yet reached profit target, I would have been cautious with a buy because I have noted how respectful Nasdaq can be of profit targets.
It is normally the case that price would re-test the neckline of the market pattern just broken, once price has reached profit target, so I felt confident with a buy.
As the morning progressed a falling wedge pattern started forming (marked with blue lines). These usually break upwards, but can break either direction.
Price broke the pattern upwards and I entered at the lower hand icon.
Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - Two market patterns where at play here. A falling wedge broken upwards + DB on the 1H TF with the neckline (drawn in orange) broken upwards.
2. S&R - Market patterns where forming at a weekly S&R area.
3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall market trend. DB was forming right at the uptrend line area on the bigger timeframes (marked with the diagonal red line). Temporary downtrend line of falling wedge broken upwards
4. Fib - Long wick candle spike down to W 0.618 fib level
5. Candlesticks - Long wick candle showing a strong reaction to the W 0.618 fib level.
Mental stop was placed at the thick pink line, i.e. half of the height of the DB.
Price moved up well.
Now for setting TP's.
Setting take profit in these situations is difficult. Usually, I would use the fib level that I entered on, to provide guidance as to TP1 and TP2 (fib extensions).
But in this case, we are not in a trending market and aiming for the Weekly TP (because that is the fib level at play here) is too ambitious.
The highlighted green areas are very strong sell areas of confluence. I set these two areas as potential take profit zones.
Depending how strong bulls are, they may push all the way to the D neckline and push through, or they may just touch an EMA or sell fib level and price reverses downwards.
I have left a lot of money on the table in these scenarios before, by just assuming bulls will break the D neckline back upwards. So was determined today to learn from my past mistakes.
I ended up taking partial profit at +- 1000 pips, because I didnt like the strong reaction to the 30min EMA. With Nas, if price is VERY bullish or bearish, then price will react to the 30 EMA. So the fact that bears were so prominent at the 30 EMA, made me want to lock in some profits.
Price continued to move up and had a strong reaction to the D EMA (where it was at that time in history). Price had not even reached the area of sell confluence marked in green, and we were seeing a strong bearish push. Decided to take profit again at the top hand icon (+- 1'700 pips) and leave a runner open.
Runner got taken out at entry when price came tumbling down.
I am happy with my take profit decisions. This was the first time that I capitalised correctly on the move I was looking for.
I feel this proves the value of screen time and really trying to make sense of how price is reacting in various situations.
You may feel no progress at first, but in the long run, you will slowly start handling situations better and better.
Looks now like the market has turned bearish.
Weekly EMA and fist W fib level are very far down. Uptrend line on high TF's is also broken.
The buy wont just happen in a heart beat (in my opinion). Price will first start consolidating as bulls build strength and momentum and make a reversal pattern on the higher TF's before truly making a big move up.
Hope you had a good day! If you were in with a sell on FOMC, its caviar and champagne for the holiday season! ;)
Stats:
The total bullish move for the day was 2'572 pips:
I captured 66% (1'700pips) of the total move - Happy with that!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None - FOMC on Wednesday night
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Note: Did not trade FOMC on Wednesday, because generally I don’t like to trade news. For me, it’s more of a gamble than a situation where I can stack the probabilities in my favour.
Morning analysis:
FOMC reaction was huge, with price plummeting through the floor.
4H and Daily fib levels were all smashed. The last remaining fib level in the morning was the W 0.618 fib level.
A huge DT had formed on the D TF (marked in green lines). D neckline was broken down and price had travelled to the profit target zone (as marked by the green vertical line).
Price had touched the W 0.618 fib level and moved back up, showing a strong reaction to this last line of defence for the bulls.
In this case, because price had reached profit target, I was looking for a buy.
If price had not yet reached profit target, I would have been cautious with a buy because I have noted how respectful Nasdaq can be of profit targets.
It is normally the case that price would re-test the neckline of the market pattern just broken, once price has reached profit target, so I felt confident with a buy.
As the morning progressed a falling wedge pattern started forming (marked with blue lines). These usually break upwards, but can break either direction.
Price broke the pattern upwards and I entered at the lower hand icon.
Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - Two market patterns where at play here. A falling wedge broken upwards + DB on the 1H TF with the neckline (drawn in orange) broken upwards.
2. S&R - Market patterns where forming at a weekly S&R area.
3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall market trend. DB was forming right at the uptrend line area on the bigger timeframes (marked with the diagonal red line). Temporary downtrend line of falling wedge broken upwards
4. Fib - Long wick candle spike down to W 0.618 fib level
5. Candlesticks - Long wick candle showing a strong reaction to the W 0.618 fib level.
Mental stop was placed at the thick pink line, i.e. half of the height of the DB.
Price moved up well.
Now for setting TP's.
Setting take profit in these situations is difficult. Usually, I would use the fib level that I entered on, to provide guidance as to TP1 and TP2 (fib extensions).
But in this case, we are not in a trending market and aiming for the Weekly TP (because that is the fib level at play here) is too ambitious.
The highlighted green areas are very strong sell areas of confluence. I set these two areas as potential take profit zones.
Depending how strong bulls are, they may push all the way to the D neckline and push through, or they may just touch an EMA or sell fib level and price reverses downwards.
I have left a lot of money on the table in these scenarios before, by just assuming bulls will break the D neckline back upwards. So was determined today to learn from my past mistakes.
I ended up taking partial profit at +- 1000 pips, because I didnt like the strong reaction to the 30min EMA. With Nas, if price is VERY bullish or bearish, then price will react to the 30 EMA. So the fact that bears were so prominent at the 30 EMA, made me want to lock in some profits.
Price continued to move up and had a strong reaction to the D EMA (where it was at that time in history). Price had not even reached the area of sell confluence marked in green, and we were seeing a strong bearish push. Decided to take profit again at the top hand icon (+- 1'700 pips) and leave a runner open.
Runner got taken out at entry when price came tumbling down.
I am happy with my take profit decisions. This was the first time that I capitalised correctly on the move I was looking for.
I feel this proves the value of screen time and really trying to make sense of how price is reacting in various situations.
You may feel no progress at first, but in the long run, you will slowly start handling situations better and better.
Looks now like the market has turned bearish.
Weekly EMA and fist W fib level are very far down. Uptrend line on high TF's is also broken.
The buy wont just happen in a heart beat (in my opinion). Price will first start consolidating as bulls build strength and momentum and make a reversal pattern on the higher TF's before truly making a big move up.
Hope you had a good day! If you were in with a sell on FOMC, its caviar and champagne for the holiday season! ;)
Stats:
The total bullish move for the day was 2'572 pips:
I captured 66% (1'700pips) of the total move - Happy with that!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
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