FA Analysis:
1- Not much to update in comparison to last week analysis.
- Trump deals have had the upper hand; Market took them as a relief and stocks and equities are crumbs away from the pre-tariffs values.
- FED has tied hands:
a) On one hand, FED knows very well the negative impacts of tariffs that both prices and employment are not hit yet by them.
b) On the other hand, economic data are still good which are sufficiently reasonable and rationale to cut rate.
c) Latest data on Consumer Sentiment came undershoot and Inflation Expectations came overshoot which really reflect the tariff impacts.
Hence, it will be very difficult for the FED to cut rates on June meeting.
2- Moody's Rating: Last Friday Moody cut United States ratings to AA1 from AAA
Market will open with a Gap down.
3- Next week is relatively calm in terms of macro-economic data. We might see other Trump's deals.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF:
NQ Weekly candle provided a strong bullish candle.
Price closed and broke out the monthly Candle (green dashed line).
1- If the opening (gap down) is below the green dashed line, the weekly close should be revised down to the opening.
2- If the opening is above the green line, the weekly close is bullish.
Price should retest both the previous weekly high and low (blue lines) as a sign of Consolidation.
Daily TF:
The last three days show a clear exhaustion.
According to the ST/MT/LT Outlook (i.e., SELL), FED no rate cut in June and Moody's rating, market might start a sell-off.
That's all for this week. Wish you a green and wealthy week!
(Note: This analysis reflects my view and my bias that ST/MT/LT Outlook is Sell. Someone else may argue a complete opposite narrative and it could be a correct analysis. So do your own assessment and make your own decisions!)
1- Not much to update in comparison to last week analysis.
- Trump deals have had the upper hand; Market took them as a relief and stocks and equities are crumbs away from the pre-tariffs values.
- FED has tied hands:
a) On one hand, FED knows very well the negative impacts of tariffs that both prices and employment are not hit yet by them.
b) On the other hand, economic data are still good which are sufficiently reasonable and rationale to cut rate.
c) Latest data on Consumer Sentiment came undershoot and Inflation Expectations came overshoot which really reflect the tariff impacts.
Hence, it will be very difficult for the FED to cut rates on June meeting.
2- Moody's Rating: Last Friday Moody cut United States ratings to AA1 from AAA
Market will open with a Gap down.
3- Next week is relatively calm in terms of macro-economic data. We might see other Trump's deals.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF:
NQ Weekly candle provided a strong bullish candle.
Price closed and broke out the monthly Candle (green dashed line).
1- If the opening (gap down) is below the green dashed line, the weekly close should be revised down to the opening.
2- If the opening is above the green line, the weekly close is bullish.
Price should retest both the previous weekly high and low (blue lines) as a sign of Consolidation.
Daily TF:
The last three days show a clear exhaustion.
According to the ST/MT/LT Outlook (i.e., SELL), FED no rate cut in June and Moody's rating, market might start a sell-off.
That's all for this week. Wish you a green and wealthy week!
(Note: This analysis reflects my view and my bias that ST/MT/LT Outlook is Sell. Someone else may argue a complete opposite narrative and it could be a correct analysis. So do your own assessment and make your own decisions!)
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.