Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 22 July 2024
I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None today but tomorrow is Alphabet and Tesla Earnings
Directional bias -
Today I am not sure what my directional bias is, because, for me, market is at a turning point.
Today I have decided to go with what the candles are telling me.
My view is that price has broken a significant Weekly support zone (marked in the thick lime green line).
I feel price will try to reach back up to re-test this area (i.e. to determine if support has turned to resistance).
If bears hold strong then price will fall significantly and if bulls can push through this zone back upwards, then we may see bulls retracing and testing the larger TF D sell fib levels.
I am surprised by the power and suddenness that bears stepped into the market. They didn't even allow bulls to retest the neckline of the D market pattern (DT), so I am really "feeling" the bearish pressure.
My plan for a buy is to enter on a DB, after a re-test of the neckline (roughly marked by the blue "W")
My plan for a sell is to enter on the break of a neckline downwards of a DT (roughly marked by the purple "M").
I am going for a month vacation starting Thursday. So I only have three days of trading left and I really want to bang out a nice profit before the holiday.
During analysis noted the following:
M TF - Candle has turned red at time of writing this morning (but still forming) - wick is 10'200 pips long. Shows unbelievable bearish sentiment currently in the market.
W TF - Significant resistance level was broken down last week (marked by lime green line). This level held down 2 x week candles marked with Z. and Y.( with long wick sticking out the top). Now bears have sliced through this zone, like a hot knife through butter. The fact that this zone did not turn into support, calling more bulls to step in, indicates that bears are completely over powering the bulls. I would expect bulls to push up back to this zone to re-test (this is the break and re-test principle that Nasdaq respects most of the time). If bulls fail to push up past this lime green zone, then I foresee that market will drop significantly. The only obstacles in bears way will be the M-0.382 buy fib level and the earnings news tomorrow.
D TF - D support + D 50 EMA did hold strong. Price seems to be consolidating at this zone.
4H & 1H - Formation of a falling wedge market pattern - these tend to break upwards but can break in either direction. But in whichever way price breaks, the market pattern is about 2'600 pips in height and so we can set a profit target of the same i.e. once broken we can expect price to move 2'600 pips
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Conformations:
1. Fib - a buy fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B. (the highest swing high at that point in the morning), indicated that price had reached down to the 0.618 fib level marked at C. This is a strong retracement level.
2. Trend - buy is in the same direction as the overall trend of Nasdaq i.e. the week and month TF. Also a temporary uptrend line marked in pink had formed.
3. Candles - we see long wick candle reaching down to the 0.618 buy fib level, and long wick candles reaching down to the pivot point. This indicates that bulls are strong stepping in at these zones to push price high.
4. Market pattern - we have a break of the neckline upwards at the hand icon and a break of the orange down trend line which has proved to be very strong and holding price down FIVE occasions (at D. E. F. G. and B.)
Also we have a break of the falling wedge pattern upwards
5. S&R - Day pivot point was acting as support.
I entered my buys gradually as I felt (on the smaller TF's) that the retest of the temporary downtrend orange line was held successfully by bulls.
Mental stop was placed at the pivot point. If candles started closing below this point then my buy would be invalidated.
Priced moved up well and I decided to close half when there was a strong push down by bears from the 4H EMA. This could really have been a turning point and it was also TP1 on the 1H buy fib.
For the remaining half, I secured at entry and I was really hoping that price would stay above my entry and that possibly market would shoot up on earnings news tomorrow and I would cash in!
But unfortunately, Nasdaq spiked me out and I was out at entry. If I had been at my computer, I would have re-entered because there was a nice little DB right on the pink trend line on the 5min TF.
Nonetheless, I still bagged about 1'000 pips.
A bit sad about my other half position :(
Hope you had a great day!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None today but tomorrow is Alphabet and Tesla Earnings
Directional bias -
Today I am not sure what my directional bias is, because, for me, market is at a turning point.
Today I have decided to go with what the candles are telling me.
My view is that price has broken a significant Weekly support zone (marked in the thick lime green line).
I feel price will try to reach back up to re-test this area (i.e. to determine if support has turned to resistance).
If bears hold strong then price will fall significantly and if bulls can push through this zone back upwards, then we may see bulls retracing and testing the larger TF D sell fib levels.
I am surprised by the power and suddenness that bears stepped into the market. They didn't even allow bulls to retest the neckline of the D market pattern (DT), so I am really "feeling" the bearish pressure.
My plan for a buy is to enter on a DB, after a re-test of the neckline (roughly marked by the blue "W")
My plan for a sell is to enter on the break of a neckline downwards of a DT (roughly marked by the purple "M").
I am going for a month vacation starting Thursday. So I only have three days of trading left and I really want to bang out a nice profit before the holiday.
During analysis noted the following:
M TF - Candle has turned red at time of writing this morning (but still forming) - wick is 10'200 pips long. Shows unbelievable bearish sentiment currently in the market.
W TF - Significant resistance level was broken down last week (marked by lime green line). This level held down 2 x week candles marked with Z. and Y.( with long wick sticking out the top). Now bears have sliced through this zone, like a hot knife through butter. The fact that this zone did not turn into support, calling more bulls to step in, indicates that bears are completely over powering the bulls. I would expect bulls to push up back to this zone to re-test (this is the break and re-test principle that Nasdaq respects most of the time). If bulls fail to push up past this lime green zone, then I foresee that market will drop significantly. The only obstacles in bears way will be the M-0.382 buy fib level and the earnings news tomorrow.
D TF - D support + D 50 EMA did hold strong. Price seems to be consolidating at this zone.
4H & 1H - Formation of a falling wedge market pattern - these tend to break upwards but can break in either direction. But in whichever way price breaks, the market pattern is about 2'600 pips in height and so we can set a profit target of the same i.e. once broken we can expect price to move 2'600 pips
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Conformations:
1. Fib - a buy fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B. (the highest swing high at that point in the morning), indicated that price had reached down to the 0.618 fib level marked at C. This is a strong retracement level.
2. Trend - buy is in the same direction as the overall trend of Nasdaq i.e. the week and month TF. Also a temporary uptrend line marked in pink had formed.
3. Candles - we see long wick candle reaching down to the 0.618 buy fib level, and long wick candles reaching down to the pivot point. This indicates that bulls are strong stepping in at these zones to push price high.
4. Market pattern - we have a break of the neckline upwards at the hand icon and a break of the orange down trend line which has proved to be very strong and holding price down FIVE occasions (at D. E. F. G. and B.)
Also we have a break of the falling wedge pattern upwards
5. S&R - Day pivot point was acting as support.
I entered my buys gradually as I felt (on the smaller TF's) that the retest of the temporary downtrend orange line was held successfully by bulls.
Mental stop was placed at the pivot point. If candles started closing below this point then my buy would be invalidated.
Priced moved up well and I decided to close half when there was a strong push down by bears from the 4H EMA. This could really have been a turning point and it was also TP1 on the 1H buy fib.
For the remaining half, I secured at entry and I was really hoping that price would stay above my entry and that possibly market would shoot up on earnings news tomorrow and I would cash in!
But unfortunately, Nasdaq spiked me out and I was out at entry. If I had been at my computer, I would have re-entered because there was a nice little DB right on the pink trend line on the 5min TF.
Nonetheless, I still bagged about 1'000 pips.
A bit sad about my other half position :(
Hope you had a great day!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
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