- If you want to know the moves of the market whales, you have to think as you are one of them! then you need to think big! and analyse on the large time frames!
- Open the weekly frame then you will notice the biggest rising channel in the history of Nasdaq which started to form on March 2020! then you will find that the index touched already twice its upper and lower line! which validated that channel! inside it you would find other smaller channels! but have a look on when the whales including the great Warren Buffett sold a big portion of his stocks! before it reaches the upper line! for a clear reason!
- I believe that chart is showing everything and the people in charge in this world is setting simply reasons to make it happen! any reasons you could imagine! just to make it work out! for example Trump winning or his created agenda of tariffs and the response back from the attacked countries to set other tariffs in return! a trade war! which no one knows when and how it would end! and how will exactly the consequences be in the medium and long term! but why we would not think that the stocks markets were not planned to crash from the early beginning?! nothing is not planned and they know exactly what they are doing! and what they will and how!
- You remember me creating an idea since two months and predicted that a huge bearish wave would hit this index and us 30 too and could be the biggest one in that index history! no one believed me! but now only all know that I was right! and Here I am, coming again with an idea for a medium and long term time frames predicting the next move and will tell you why!
- I said before that you would find series of red weekly candles and look now, we reached our 4th bearish weekly candles and moreover in a row! and this wave is the 7th fastest bearish waves in Nasdaq history! the 4th candle closed under the moving average 50! imagine that the last week candle closed under the average of the last 50 WEEKS candles! just imagine that!
- Just observe with me, that between September 2022 and January 2023, the price formed a double bottom pattern after a very strong bearish trend, was enough to turn the index completely bullish for a complete 2 years till February 2025! but now between December 2024 and February 2025, the index formed exactly the opposite! a double top pattern also on the weekly chart!
- In trading, there is a simple rule but not many traders know about it! that every long wick MUST and WILL be filled sooner or later! then have a look on the weekly candle lower long massive wick from the week of carry trade of 05.08.2024! remember that week as we will return back to its low! (the TP2) as the massive pull back happened after its settle on the MA50 exactly, then went up non-stop literally in a huge bullish rally leaving behind a wick could fill the space between the sky and the ground! This wick will be filled in this wave!
- Consider please the area I highlighted in yellow in a square! that is an area without any volume and each time recently the price go in that area, would try to return back so fast with a power! that would explain Friday 15.03.2025 massive push up for more than 2% to the upside! as if it would fell down, so no interest from traders in any price that! which means in case it would return back and fall in that area, the index would travel to its end non stop!
- The target of the massive double top pattern is 18330 but my TP1 is before that level! as the index did not reach back to test the high of the weekly candle of 20.05.2024 so there a retrace to the upside would happen! but temporarily! but on the weekly! so it could be looking like a big retrace on lower time frames!
- Let us say that market could open bullish on Monday then any good news would take place or whatever which would lead to a bullish wave! I would say no chance to go further up more than 20845! and the weekly candle would close under that price, as that the neck line of the massive double top pattern on the weekly chart!
- My TP 3 is so critical and the most important support and resistance level, when the index broke that resistance in the week of 15.01.2024 and never tested it back on the weekly chart! so I believe it is the time, that will happen!
- My TP4 is the deepest price we could reach to which is at the MA 200 and another top of the week 31.07.2024 which the index did not test too and it was also a strong resistance level! and by reaching there, would mean reaching to the lower line of the rising channel! or I expect it would reach there when the index reaches in same time the lower rising channel line! but I can guarantee the price but can not expect how long time it would take to reach there!
-
- Open the weekly frame then you will notice the biggest rising channel in the history of Nasdaq which started to form on March 2020! then you will find that the index touched already twice its upper and lower line! which validated that channel! inside it you would find other smaller channels! but have a look on when the whales including the great Warren Buffett sold a big portion of his stocks! before it reaches the upper line! for a clear reason!
- I believe that chart is showing everything and the people in charge in this world is setting simply reasons to make it happen! any reasons you could imagine! just to make it work out! for example Trump winning or his created agenda of tariffs and the response back from the attacked countries to set other tariffs in return! a trade war! which no one knows when and how it would end! and how will exactly the consequences be in the medium and long term! but why we would not think that the stocks markets were not planned to crash from the early beginning?! nothing is not planned and they know exactly what they are doing! and what they will and how!
- You remember me creating an idea since two months and predicted that a huge bearish wave would hit this index and us 30 too and could be the biggest one in that index history! no one believed me! but now only all know that I was right! and Here I am, coming again with an idea for a medium and long term time frames predicting the next move and will tell you why!
- I said before that you would find series of red weekly candles and look now, we reached our 4th bearish weekly candles and moreover in a row! and this wave is the 7th fastest bearish waves in Nasdaq history! the 4th candle closed under the moving average 50! imagine that the last week candle closed under the average of the last 50 WEEKS candles! just imagine that!
- Just observe with me, that between September 2022 and January 2023, the price formed a double bottom pattern after a very strong bearish trend, was enough to turn the index completely bullish for a complete 2 years till February 2025! but now between December 2024 and February 2025, the index formed exactly the opposite! a double top pattern also on the weekly chart!
- In trading, there is a simple rule but not many traders know about it! that every long wick MUST and WILL be filled sooner or later! then have a look on the weekly candle lower long massive wick from the week of carry trade of 05.08.2024! remember that week as we will return back to its low! (the TP2) as the massive pull back happened after its settle on the MA50 exactly, then went up non-stop literally in a huge bullish rally leaving behind a wick could fill the space between the sky and the ground! This wick will be filled in this wave!
- Consider please the area I highlighted in yellow in a square! that is an area without any volume and each time recently the price go in that area, would try to return back so fast with a power! that would explain Friday 15.03.2025 massive push up for more than 2% to the upside! as if it would fell down, so no interest from traders in any price that! which means in case it would return back and fall in that area, the index would travel to its end non stop!
- The target of the massive double top pattern is 18330 but my TP1 is before that level! as the index did not reach back to test the high of the weekly candle of 20.05.2024 so there a retrace to the upside would happen! but temporarily! but on the weekly! so it could be looking like a big retrace on lower time frames!
- Let us say that market could open bullish on Monday then any good news would take place or whatever which would lead to a bullish wave! I would say no chance to go further up more than 20845! and the weekly candle would close under that price, as that the neck line of the massive double top pattern on the weekly chart!
- My TP 3 is so critical and the most important support and resistance level, when the index broke that resistance in the week of 15.01.2024 and never tested it back on the weekly chart! so I believe it is the time, that will happen!
- My TP4 is the deepest price we could reach to which is at the MA 200 and another top of the week 31.07.2024 which the index did not test too and it was also a strong resistance level! and by reaching there, would mean reaching to the lower line of the rising channel! or I expect it would reach there when the index reaches in same time the lower rising channel line! but I can guarantee the price but can not expect how long time it would take to reach there!
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Trade active
The idea is always active till all TPs are hit! 
Moustafa Marei
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Moustafa Marei
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.