Critical Zones Ahead for NAS100!
Updated
Here is a detailed breakdown and trading plan for the NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) based on the provided chart analysis, using the same structured format for clarity.
NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Market Breakdown & Trading Plan
1. Market Context and Structure
Phase and Current Movement:
Left Chart (1H):
NAS100 is in Wave 4 of a larger Elliott Wave sequence, moving within a corrective phase.
Wave 5 is expected to bring a final push higher before transitioning into a larger correction.
Price is showing a potential weakened Wave A, followed by a shallow corrective structure, suggesting upward movement toward a key resistance area near 20,771.9–21,045.3.
Right Chart (4H):
The current market is within a distribution phase (Phase C) after breaking above a Volume-Divergence by Wave 5 zone (22,061.9) on a previous attempt.
A strong rejection in the resistance zone is anticipated, followed by a markdown phase targeting lower support levels.
2. Expected Price Movement
Bullish Push (Wave 5 Completion)
Target Levels:
First target: 20,771.9 (Wave A peak resistance).
Primary target: 21,045.3 (Fibonacci 0.786 retracement and divergence level).
Stretch target: 21,247.5 (weakened high resistance on the daily chart).
Invalidation: Reversal below 20,500.0 before reaching 20,771.9 invalidates Wave 5 completion.
Correction and Markdown Phase:
Key Reversal Zone:
A strong rejection at 21,045.3–21,247.5 is expected to trigger the markdown phase.
Projected Downside Targets:
Short-term target: 20,647.3 (short-term support at key Fibonacci level).
Medium-term target: 20,408.1 (Wave B triangle boundary and critical support).
Extended downside: 20,309.1 (invalidates bullish structure; Phase C SC line).
3. Key Price Levels to Monitor
Bullish Resistance Zones:
20,771.9: Wave A high; primary resistance where rejection could occur.
21,045.3: 0.786 Fibonacci retracement; key resistance and divergence zone.
21,247.5: Stretch target; weakened high likely to attract liquidity before reversal.
Support Zones:
20,647.3: Fibonacci 0.5 retracement; potential bounce zone during markdown.
20,408.1: Triangle boundary (Wave B support) and critical level for bullish continuation.
20,309.1: SC accumulation level; loss here confirms bearish continuation.
4. Trading Plan
Scenario 1: Bullish Completion of Wave 5
Setup: Look for bullish continuation toward resistance levels if price holds above 20,647.3.
Entry:
Enter long positions on dips to 20,647.3 or 20,500.0 with clear bullish momentum.
Targets:
First target: 20,771.9.
Primary target: 21,045.3.
Stretch target: 21,247.5.
Invalidation: A failure to hold above 20,500.0 signals early markdown, invalidating this scenario.
Scenario 2: Correction After Wave 5 Completion
Setup: Look for rejection at the 21,045.3–21,247.5 resistance zone to confirm markdown.
Short Entry Criteria:
Rejection from the resistance zone with lower highs on lower timeframes.
Confirmation via bearish momentum and failure to break above resistance.
Targets:
Short-term target: 20,647.3.
Medium-term target: 20,408.1.
Extended target: 20,309.1.
Stop-Loss: Above 21,247.5 (upper resistance zone) to limit risk.
Scenario 3: Failure of Wave 5 Completion
Setup: If price fails to break 20,771.9 or reverses early:
Watch for signs of markdown with a breakdown below 20,500.0.
Short Setup:
Enter on confirmation of bearish breakdown below 20,500.0.
Targets:
Short-term target: 20,408.1.
Medium-term target: 20,309.1.
Invalidation: Reclaiming 20,771.9 invalidates bearish markdown bias.
5. Commentary for Your Audience
What to Expect This Week:
NAS100 is likely to push higher to test resistance at 20,771.9–21,045.3, potentially hitting the stretch target at 21,247.5.
A strong reversal is expected from these levels, leading to a markdown phase targeting lower support levels like 20,647.3, 20,408.1, and 20,309.1.
How to Trade:
For Long Traders:
Enter longs on dips to 20,647.3 or 20,500.0, targeting 21,045.3.
Be cautious near resistance; take profits and prepare for a reversal.
For Short Traders:
Look for bearish rejection signals near 21,045.3–21,247.5 and enter shorts.
Target the markdown phase toward 20,408.1 or deeper.
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss:
For longs, place stops below 20,500.0.
For shorts, place stops above 21,247.5.
Position Sizing: Adjust leverage for high volatility near key levels.
Discipline: Avoid over-trading and wait for clear confirmation of setups.
Trade active
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Trade closed: target reached
🚨 Monday Trading Plan Update: "Patience is Key" 🚨
📅 Objective: Gain clarity by observing Monday's price action and the daily close.
🌟 Plan Breakdown
🛑 Sit-Out Mode (Main Strategy)
Mondays often bring choppy, unclear moves. By waiting for the daily close, we can spot:
Where key levels are forming.
How price reacts to these levels.
When to position for high-probability setups.
🎯 Scalp Option (For the Brave)
If you must trade, stick to small, low-risk scalps. Use high-confluence setups and tight risk management.
🔍 Why This Approach?
💡 "Not trading is also trading."
Avoid unnecessary losses from impatience.
Prepare for higher-quality setups later in the week.
Start the week with a clear and disciplined mindset.
📊 What to Observe Today:
Key levels and reactions.
Sentiment from market participants.
Volatility and range for the week.
💎 Key Takeaway
"Trading is a marathon, not a sprint." Starting your week with patience helps you trade smarter and align with your strategy.
Let's stay sharp, observe the market, and prepare for the opportunities ahead. 💪
Note
If you could master one trading skill this year, what would it be?Note
How do you stay focused and motivated during periods of drawdown?Note
📊 End of Day Thoughts
Today’s market showed a lot of indecision, with price consolidating around key levels. For me, it was a reminder that waiting for clarity is just as important as taking trades. Tomorrow, I’ll be watchingfor potential setups
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