Weekly Analyses and Recap
Sep 16 - 20 2024
Hi Traders and Welcome to Another Weekly Analyses and Recap Idea Post.
Last week the bulls held their strength and price was on a strong uptrend with only a 1H Low as the biggest TF to make a HL. This 1H Low occurred on Wednesday Sep 11 after CPI and acted as a retest before continuing the bullish trend. Although this was not the low I anticipated, it acted as a key entry point to continue the uptrend which continued up to a high of 19,565.9.
On my chart I have highlighted bearish levels of resistance as red zones where price previously respected or retraced to signal some form of a HL. Following the 1H Low, the next retracement level was at 19,235.1 for price to retrace. This retracement only signalled a 45min HL and once again was not the kind of low I anticipated. This further highlights how strong the bulls were last week.
Historically, once price has completed it's retracement, it will recover the sells and less than half the time the sells took the play out. So for example, the 23H HL took 2 weeks to complete to make its lowest point at 18,305.1. Within one week the 23H LH now sits at a high of 19,565.9. This is an indication that the retracement period may be over and we are resuming an uptrend.
Trading Plan for This Week:
Since price is at a high, we cannot buy at a high but rather wait for HLs to signal on the larger TFs for an entry point. On my chart I have indicated a consolidation zone in orange where price previously retraced.
At the time of this post, price is currently at 19,500.9 and is currently retracing from the high of last Friday. However, since the 7H TF is the biggest TF at a LH which needs to signal a High I anticipate that price will eventually continue bullish during London or NY session up to 19,647.7 to signal a 7H High. With the 7H TF being at a high, all the timeframes from the 23H down will be at their highest point making the retracement valid down to 19,134.8 to signal possibly a 4H HL.
19,134.8 is chosen as a TP of interest because
- it currently sits at the 38.2% fib level of extreme volatility.
- it is within an area for which previously acted as a resistance but since price broke out this resistance level can turn into a support.
Once price reaches 19,134.8 only then will I look for buys.
Daily HL signal - indication of a new low
23H LH - bullish correction
4H HL to 23H HL - confirmation of bullish reversal to ATH
From a fundamental standpoint, we do have the Fed's interest rate decision and FOMC which can cause added volatility since the markets anticipate the Feds to announce rate cuts. So then it possible that the price will not signal a HL on the bigger TF and will make a series of HHs and HLs on the 1H TF to break above the orange consolidation zone to new ATHs.
Hi Traders and Welcome to Another Weekly Analyses and Recap Idea Post.
Last week the bulls held their strength and price was on a strong uptrend with only a 1H Low as the biggest TF to make a HL. This 1H Low occurred on Wednesday Sep 11 after CPI and acted as a retest before continuing the bullish trend. Although this was not the low I anticipated, it acted as a key entry point to continue the uptrend which continued up to a high of 19,565.9.
On my chart I have highlighted bearish levels of resistance as red zones where price previously respected or retraced to signal some form of a HL. Following the 1H Low, the next retracement level was at 19,235.1 for price to retrace. This retracement only signalled a 45min HL and once again was not the kind of low I anticipated. This further highlights how strong the bulls were last week.
Historically, once price has completed it's retracement, it will recover the sells and less than half the time the sells took the play out. So for example, the 23H HL took 2 weeks to complete to make its lowest point at 18,305.1. Within one week the 23H LH now sits at a high of 19,565.9. This is an indication that the retracement period may be over and we are resuming an uptrend.
Trading Plan for This Week:
Since price is at a high, we cannot buy at a high but rather wait for HLs to signal on the larger TFs for an entry point. On my chart I have indicated a consolidation zone in orange where price previously retraced.
At the time of this post, price is currently at 19,500.9 and is currently retracing from the high of last Friday. However, since the 7H TF is the biggest TF at a LH which needs to signal a High I anticipate that price will eventually continue bullish during London or NY session up to 19,647.7 to signal a 7H High. With the 7H TF being at a high, all the timeframes from the 23H down will be at their highest point making the retracement valid down to 19,134.8 to signal possibly a 4H HL.
19,134.8 is chosen as a TP of interest because
- it currently sits at the 38.2% fib level of extreme volatility.
- it is within an area for which previously acted as a resistance but since price broke out this resistance level can turn into a support.
Once price reaches 19,134.8 only then will I look for buys.
Daily HL signal - indication of a new low
23H LH - bullish correction
4H HL to 23H HL - confirmation of bullish reversal to ATH
From a fundamental standpoint, we do have the Fed's interest rate decision and FOMC which can cause added volatility since the markets anticipate the Feds to announce rate cuts. So then it possible that the price will not signal a HL on the bigger TF and will make a series of HHs and HLs on the 1H TF to break above the orange consolidation zone to new ATHs.
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