Market sentiment has been pessimistic over the past few days, with some expecting further declines while others anticipate a rebound. However, after scanning through online discussions, I was surprised that almost no one is talking about the most critical piece of information for April！
— Starting in April, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will reduce the monthly redemption cap on U.S. Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion to slow down the decline in its securities holdings.!
If we look back at May 2024, the Fed made the same move, which led to a significant rally from May to July.
For those who remain bearish, it's crucial to have proper stop-loss strategies in place. After April 2, as long as technical indicators align, we should expect a strong rebound.
— Starting in April, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will reduce the monthly redemption cap on U.S. Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion to slow down the decline in its securities holdings.!
If we look back at May 2024, the Fed made the same move, which led to a significant rally from May to July.
For those who remain bearish, it's crucial to have proper stop-loss strategies in place. After April 2, as long as technical indicators align, we should expect a strong rebound.
Trade active
With QT almost finished, and there are still 2-3 rate cuts expected this year. Trump's tariff policies have caused significant market panic, but the actual impact may not be fully reflected until next year. In the short term, the effects will likely be much lower than the market currently anticipates. Based on fundamentals, it is difficult to find more reasons for a significant market drop.
Although I remain bearish on U.S. stocks in the long term (over the next 5-10 years), but there is a high probability of a short-term rebound.
A new all-time high this year cannot be ruled out.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.