All Aligns for THE LAST DANCE !
Updated
Technical: Rising wedge, to Double TOP A&E, and tiny SH in LTF to confirm a very significant resistance at 13300. This justified quickly by a sharp correction back to the resting river of Bull. However, This is even getting more serious when a BEARISH FLAG is just emerged.
Whilst, A quick look at DXY also provides a enormous danger which is just arm-length away. There is very high chance that the next impulse will push through and even beyond the trend line. This means a trenmendous pressure on markets especially Tech is very likely to come. Eventhough just having a nice restfull month for Tech after a bloodbath Feb, A NEW ATL is definitely not a very surprise result to refresh a new wave of rotation play.
FED: the stance of FED is set out very clear that it could let the economy run hotter with inflation (as long as the long-term average is on the target). That means our market might be currently the hottest one, but we are no where close to where they would tap in. So the yield is there to pick up its recovery play and huge huge way to go.
Conclusion: All Patterns, double-checking charts point out to a BIG BIG SHORT of the year. The prevailing catalyst is also double down to ready for doom and gloom market coming. Thus, the verdict is not whether Short to the last ATL is the Play, but rather to where the NEW ATL would be drip on us to start over.
Well, no so fast Katie. Before to the moon, we have to be on the earth first.
Cheers.
Disclaimer: This idea is published as the sake of acknowledging one's opinion, not advising to take on any further position and risks. Traders should consider their own risk at any circumstances.
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As expected, the final move has formed to vaccum for bearish momemtum. Final call for trapping. Cheers
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The shoulder form is not in a perfectly equal shape, but still in for a valid shoulder form. This could be explained by the euphoria of bullish news by media and revised analyst.
Eventhough it might not be a great idea to fight against the markets, the set up for shorting market is still strong and valid so that short holding is recommended to stay on.
A lot of traders and top analyst uses this historic move as referece for a rebounce, but hold on...
Remind you that this is not market move itself. Its a purely outlier event, which is not sustainable for reference. That's being said, take a look at where we are now
Comparing to the time, we are having much much more reason to stay bullish in tandem with vix inching toward new record low, primarily saying we should have been at new ATH at the momment. However, we are way off the last ATH. Further, we are sitting on the gruadually decreasing volume, which are waiting for peaking and signaling a full reverse.
Considering the next wave of vix and the dismising of outlier event, the closer wave would bring in higher panic and so is the voltility. If we cut out the trump effect and had a solid correction of 5.5%, we are now very likely to heading bigger correction of up to double digits.
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Both Vix and DXY succesfully confirms the signal as we planned.
Last night, FED should have give a very positive signal to the market. if it were a strong bullish night that bull need to break the significant resistance at 13300, it should be last night. However, in the very munites of trading section, we now confirm to have a lower significant resistance at 13180 . The shoulder formed last time is beautifully maitained for a seriously big short.
Now, we have to 2 scenrio for this particular case. 2 are showned as above. The vollume is also lower over time and squeezing out for a final break out.
Dan Niles, RIch Bernstein, Tom Lee, Yun Li .etc... are moving their portfolio away for reopening. Tech had a great enviroment for bullish: Low rate, Stay-at-home. Unfortunately, Both of that is not there in the reopening where people flocking to street, less streaming, less online spending, and even corporate tax hike on the horizon. Tech is the way to play for long-term growth, but asking the market to keep them all for 5 years period is non-sense, which also means Tech is very unlikely to reach its last ATH again for years.
i hope this help you as investor and trader to have great speculation as well as vigilant outlook on market. cheers
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Enjoy the ride. cheers !!
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