$NATGAS possibly in consolidation
Updated
NATGAS price after a 2 month period of gains followed by 2 months of losses appears to have found support near the 2.0$ area. It appears the uptrend in April-May is captured by the 3rd Elliott wave which indicates the highest possible advancement upwards while the loses during June-July can be captured by the retracement wave following Elliott's theory. This is in confluence with price crossing upwards the 50-200 EMA during April-May, while in June-July price dropped bellow the 50 EMA and has been in retracement since without clear signs of uptrend continuation in higher timeframes (i.e. 4h, 1d etc).
Furthermore, from Elliot and Weis wave oscillators it appears that the biggest waves upwards and downwards for the above period have occurred, therefore the subsequent period will probably be followed by a series of consolidation price action until we have a new breakout.
PS: The sellers orderblock was twice as large compared to the buyers orderblock at the 1d chart, indicating strong bearish potential should price reach near the 3.0$ again.
PPS: I'm not a financial advisor, these are just my thoughts (open to criticism) as I am trying to understand and prepare as best I can for future events regarding the stock.
Note
A breakdown with momentum below the 200 MA (daily chart) may find support at 1.6-1.7 USD while a breakout with momentum above the 50 MA (daily charet) may find resistance again at 3.0 USD. If the move is not accompanied by strong divergence with volume/momentum/buyer-seller%, fakeouts and back into range are quite possible.Note
It appears that the prediction made by the current analysis is consistent with the market at the current state. We observed the 5 main waves and the 3 corrective waves predicted by the Elliott model at the daily timeframe and typically after this a consolidation period follows until market starts trending again. The previous 2 weeks the market has been fluctuating with broad swings in both directions, without validating as of yet an uptrend or a downtrend continuation (i.e. breaking consistently previous market structure).
From a technical perspective we are entering a squeeze - care needs to be taken for fake breakouts which are very common. A possible long entry could be after a retracement near previous buyers orderblock if volume and momentum show regular bullish divergence. Otherwise, for a conservative approach, if price crosses the 200 ema (daily) and remains consistently above it making higher highs and higher lows, then buying the dip after the uptrend is established could be a possibility.
I maintain a bullish bias for the coming future since we are near an area where sellers appear overextended from 3 months of selling activity and where buying positions have started to accumulate. If in the near future production cuts are met with increased demand, then from a fundamental perspective we are looking at an incoming bullish market.
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