NatGas: Autumn is Coming
A record warm summer is over. Aircons all over have ran at full speed. Even up in Viking-land.
How has that demand affected prices of Natgas? Well, so-so. We have dropped and there has been build in inventories most of the weeks. There is still some overproduction relative to season. And as we know, there is a season for everything.
I thought for a while that the recent low could have been the bottom and I went long when the time cycle was showing time to enter. Now time cycle is nearly at an end and NatGas has been upward, but choppy. I decided to close out my long and go sidelined to figure out what can cause this. And I think I have found the answer: NatGas is not done yet. Far from it. It is time to get ugly. Real ugly.
Techincally speaking, RSI is far from oversold. In fact, we are approaching neutral territory. At the 2018 highs we were at an RSI of 90. There hasnt been real panic selling yet. At the 2018 top, people were afraid to sell. A real bottom should make people afraid to buy.
I re-did larger scale EW which support going lower. An 1.618 extension of first five down targets the indicated price.
When? Around Sept 22-Sept 25 I Think the final bottom will be seen.
The truly longer cycles in NatGas points upward and the bottom was seen in 2016. We are in a 2nd wave, so after this bottom, the 3rd wave start and that has a quite high target. But hey, we dont trade for years, but it is nice to know where we are going.
How has that demand affected prices of Natgas? Well, so-so. We have dropped and there has been build in inventories most of the weeks. There is still some overproduction relative to season. And as we know, there is a season for everything.
I thought for a while that the recent low could have been the bottom and I went long when the time cycle was showing time to enter. Now time cycle is nearly at an end and NatGas has been upward, but choppy. I decided to close out my long and go sidelined to figure out what can cause this. And I think I have found the answer: NatGas is not done yet. Far from it. It is time to get ugly. Real ugly.
Techincally speaking, RSI is far from oversold. In fact, we are approaching neutral territory. At the 2018 highs we were at an RSI of 90. There hasnt been real panic selling yet. At the 2018 top, people were afraid to sell. A real bottom should make people afraid to buy.
I re-did larger scale EW which support going lower. An 1.618 extension of first five down targets the indicated price.
When? Around Sept 22-Sept 25 I Think the final bottom will be seen.
The truly longer cycles in NatGas points upward and the bottom was seen in 2016. We are in a 2nd wave, so after this bottom, the 3rd wave start and that has a quite high target. But hey, we dont trade for years, but it is nice to know where we are going.
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