Gas Trojan
Updated
I will be honest with you, I have high hopes that this one could be the project with the biggest success, not necessarily in predicting what the market might do, but how will it act and when and even where. In other words, as usual in most nen projects, most rectangles are simulated projected potential support and resistance zones in their specific time zone, with some exceptions that confirm the rule, or with a caveat. Here is the rundown:
- The biggest of them all lurking above is obvious, if the bulls manage to get the price to that level (most of us doubt it will ever reach that zone in time) they might get scared in that critical juncture of forces that might push it away back into a corner.
- The first one is a potential opportunity if the price reaches it coming from below and with the right candlestick setup it could provide an inflection point for a short. (remember this project takes into account multiple market evolution scenarios, so this doesn't need to happen, it is just a potential)
- The blue and the bigger green rectangles have some exceptions to them as they could act as zones of power influence but also power avoidance, meaning the price can go past their levels from above or from below, as long as the rectangles are not touched or pierced.
- the small rectangle with an icon has no support or resistance in that zone at that price level, this could just act as a milestone or we can use its time stamp to analyze what the market does in that time zone
- The Orange and the Red rectangles are more like stepping stones where corrections might occur from any side/direction where having a lookout for candlestick shadows for potential wave ends should be of greater importance
- speaking of candlestick shadows they should be an overall important class of setups to look out for in the entirety of the project, especially in the longer slim rectangles that are left
- on the bottom right, below the blue curve, I really couldn't come up with any projected simulated potential zones of influence, so I cooked up a grid, chess board style, meaning, we might attempt to figure out where the bishop moves or how the horse goes, if the market actually ends up sliding into that area behind the blue curve.
The project will be considered a success if important, relevant, very obvious, and quite intriguing price action, events, and other coincidences might occur in synchronicity or harmony with the elements in the project. (the more the better, we don't want to be fooled by randomness and the normal distribution of probabilities and potentials into a Picasso drawing). It will be considered a failure if none of the rectangles hold as pivot point zones or inflection areas and the price just keeps breaking them down like they don't even exist or matter, sliding the price into zones that are irrelevant for the project and its elements.
Unfortunately, the nature of the entirety of the project required a wider zoomed out perspective, but I promise I will update comments with specific interesting candlestick setups or patterns that I will consider to be relevant in trying to analyze and maybe anticipate what the market might do, or at least compute a better assessment of the probabilities of the scenarios that could happen and how...
Bon Voyage! This could get very interesting and a really Fun Ride. Also feel free to comment with your own perspective and judgement or bias, regarding what the market might do, especially if we enter into Chess Zone.
- The biggest of them all lurking above is obvious, if the bulls manage to get the price to that level (most of us doubt it will ever reach that zone in time) they might get scared in that critical juncture of forces that might push it away back into a corner.
- The first one is a potential opportunity if the price reaches it coming from below and with the right candlestick setup it could provide an inflection point for a short. (remember this project takes into account multiple market evolution scenarios, so this doesn't need to happen, it is just a potential)
- The blue and the bigger green rectangles have some exceptions to them as they could act as zones of power influence but also power avoidance, meaning the price can go past their levels from above or from below, as long as the rectangles are not touched or pierced.
- the small rectangle with an icon has no support or resistance in that zone at that price level, this could just act as a milestone or we can use its time stamp to analyze what the market does in that time zone
- The Orange and the Red rectangles are more like stepping stones where corrections might occur from any side/direction where having a lookout for candlestick shadows for potential wave ends should be of greater importance
- speaking of candlestick shadows they should be an overall important class of setups to look out for in the entirety of the project, especially in the longer slim rectangles that are left
- on the bottom right, below the blue curve, I really couldn't come up with any projected simulated potential zones of influence, so I cooked up a grid, chess board style, meaning, we might attempt to figure out where the bishop moves or how the horse goes, if the market actually ends up sliding into that area behind the blue curve.
The project will be considered a success if important, relevant, very obvious, and quite intriguing price action, events, and other coincidences might occur in synchronicity or harmony with the elements in the project. (the more the better, we don't want to be fooled by randomness and the normal distribution of probabilities and potentials into a Picasso drawing). It will be considered a failure if none of the rectangles hold as pivot point zones or inflection areas and the price just keeps breaking them down like they don't even exist or matter, sliding the price into zones that are irrelevant for the project and its elements.
Unfortunately, the nature of the entirety of the project required a wider zoomed out perspective, but I promise I will update comments with specific interesting candlestick setups or patterns that I will consider to be relevant in trying to analyze and maybe anticipate what the market might do, or at least compute a better assessment of the probabilities of the scenarios that could happen and how...
Bon Voyage! This could get very interesting and a really Fun Ride. Also feel free to comment with your own perspective and judgement or bias, regarding what the market might do, especially if we enter into Chess Zone.
Note
There it is. A bearish engulfing with 2 bigger previous candlestick shadows above the marked price level which acted as resistance recently. Not an awesome setup but a decent signal for a potential short. The candlestick on the daily also looks decent. Any bearish move could be just temporary but we'll see if we ever reach any elements below if it keeps dropping...Note
Long candlestick shadow at the corner of the blue and a complete reversal in sentiment for nat gas. Looking forward to see if the price reaches the red rectangle. Also will be keeping an eye on the candlestick shadows near the rectangles as the initial idea was proposing. Hopefully there will be more coincidental price action in this drawing. Not sure if we will reach the Chess Zone, unless the price drops there from the big purple. Long way to go. A lot of time left to tick until the future. Note
Even though this price action with the candlestick long shadow at the bottom edge of the rectangle is intriguing, I am not sure this level will hold. Note
Drop outside the blue and a sharp one, but eventually I can see a retest of the 1.9 happening. Let's take it from there if it happens.Note
A very stubborn rectangle that almost acted as resistance all around at the bottom. Some weakness in nat gas for today and we should observe its tendencies regarding the lows if it keeps creating lower ones or tries to go for the 1.9. If it does, I can see it surpassing it and trying for 1.95-1.96.Note
Zooming out for the bigger picture. Target projection revised to 2.03, but first we need the turnaround. Don't know if it will come at the marked price level 1.66 or maybe near the time stamp of the milestone, but an ideal setup in case this bullish scenario is solid, would be with a longer candlestick shadows or more to signal the reversal.Note
Never got to touch 1.66 and back at 1.9. Not sure if it can go above 2.03~ before a correction for fine tuning, but my views are flexible, waiting to see how this unfolds. We might see the orange one being visited. Note
2.03 reached. Waiting for a potential correction near the red or orange as initially mentioned in the idea of the project.Note
Clear turnaround at the marked target, now back at 1.92. I have my eyes on the green rectangle now, which looks enticing, we could even see a trifecta hit on all the 3 rectangles left in this picture.Don't know where the reversal could be for this bearish wave.
Note
Very interesting developments at the Orange. Red zone next? And how can we reach the green if it is still in sight? More time needs to pass before I assess the probability of an incursion towards C3.Note
Red almost acted as resistance and the Orange is almost over. I would rather see this going eventually to 2.11 (green rectangle level) than see it drop to the marked 1.66.Note
While the price action at the orange was intriguing if not actually impressive, it seems the force is strong in the red as well. Nevertheless, my estimations stand regarding the bullish bias for the next trading weeks (green rectangle stands in the first half of may). We might not see a pump after the red ends, as nat gas has been sluggish throughout this whole project, but we might not see aggressive bearish runs (corrections) until we reach the 2.11 proposed target.Note
2.11 reached faster than expected. I like the C3 zone. Note
Very interesting situation on Nat Gas after the drop from the previous proposed target around 2.11. Maybe we will see the green touched eventually, and another interesting scenario would be a horse move from C3 to D1, and maybe a pawn to D0 if it gets out of control. Note
Hit on the green plank right at its beginning. Let's see if this acts as resistance. For the near short term I am leaning towards this zone under it and above the marked 1.90.Note
A stop and a break at the lower edge of the green which could lead to a higher high near 2.3. Waiting to see if any bearish tones appear after such a scenario. Don't know if the top big purple will be reached. Searching for some flexibility in the approach I might need to sideline the C3 scenario for now, until a more clear picture presents itself. Note
2.33 reached. I wouldn't put my money on this scenario as of now, without a sign of weakness or potential reversal pattern, but I can see it go back to 2.2 or 2.16 (as a first step in case something bigger starts). At the same time, the overall bullish tendencies of natural gas should make any bears more cautious in such an approach unless a significant change in tune reveals itself. I am also on the sideline for now regarding C3 scenario, considering the green has been broken on the up with a significant new higher high.Note
Some selling mood at the 2.33 but the bulls are not scared. This can start sliding down eventually but I would be cautious of any 4h candle closed above the level where candlestick shadows have remained.Note
Will the chess board be avoided? Maybe. It would mean the initial project idea was somewhat accurate, even though my predictions might have been off after the green plank. Next for the nearing end of this project, I want to present this scenario still regarding the big purple rectangle as potentially very relevant, in case it triggers some bearish sentiment. 3 green price levels added in case resistance is met on the up near the 2.66 or below the top edge of the big rectangle, triggering a descent, with a potential consolidation and break for lower lows at the middle green level.Note
Some resistance at the big rectangle but eventually penetrated. Correction and continuation. Drop and no coming back. Or Down wave, up wave lower high and start of more bearish tone. Out of 3 scenarios I don't know which one is more plausible in this position. Could just continue upwards without any retracement. Gas price increase is most likely fundamental. 
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