NAV - Technical analysis & a first try at Elliott wave analysis

I bought NAV by a mistake at 29xxx level. I hadn't even analyzed the wave structure. So this is my short and long term analysis of it.

I must admit that it is a challenging wave structure and I couldn't find good fib levels for it (maybe because I am just a noob :) ). I also tried to look at the Elliot Wave pattern for it.
It might just be that we are already moving towards a major 3rd-wave structure. That means 100%+ profit. I can at least pull out of NAV without any loss.

The other scenario is that we are moving toward a head-shoulder pattern. That means it will go even further down and test it's base support level. If that holds, then it's a definite buy and hold. Hopefully a 3rd wave will be coming.

I am just a noob at this, so this is all just speculation from my side. Please do share your ideas with me. Happy trading.

snapshot
Elliott WaveSupport and ResistanceTrend Lines

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