Daily chart of the US100 (Nasdaq 100) index showing recent price action and technical indicators.
Technical Overview and Key Levels
The US100 index (Nasdaq 100) is attempting to rebound after a recent correction. On the daily timeframe, price has climbed back above short-term moving averages (e.g. the 50-day MA around ~19,500) but remains below the longer-term 200-day MA near the 20,300–20,400 zone . This suggests interim bullish momentum with a key overhead resistance still intact. The 20,000 level in particular is a major psychological barrier and support area – it has acted as an important floor multiple times and coincides with the 50-week EMA
Momentum indicators are reflecting the recent sell-off and bounce:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) plunged into oversold territory during last week’s decline (daily RSI dropped below 30). It has since turned upward toward the 60s (current RSI ~62) as price rebounded . This rising RSI indicates momentum is improving off oversold levels without yet reaching overbought extremes.
The Stochastic oscillator on shorter timeframes has swung up quickly and is now overbought (e.g. %K in the high 90s) after the sharp bounce. This suggests the rally may pause or consolidate in the very near term. A mild pullback from overbought short-term conditions could actually provide a better entry point for buyers.
The MACD is showing early signs of a bullish crossover. The daily MACD line has started curving up and the histogram turned positive, reflecting that downward momentum is waning and bullish momentum is building (MACD on daily was in “Buy” territory by Friday). If this crossover sustains, it strengthens the case for a trend reversal upward.
Support and resistance levels to watch:
19,150 – 19,400: Strong support zone. This area marked recent lows and roughly the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Aug–Feb rally. Buyers have been stepping in here, and as long as it holds, the index may form a swing bottom.
19,765: Initial resistance (last Friday’s low turned into new resistance after Monday’s drop) . The index reclaimed this level, so it now needs to stay above ~19,765 to confirm the dip-buying strength.
20,000: Major psychological round number and pivot. Beyond its psychological significance, this level was noted as a long-term pivot and is near the 50-week EMA . A sustained move above 20k would be a bullish signal, but failure here could invite sellers.
20,300 – 20,400: Next critical resistance area. This is roughly where the 200-day moving average lies (around 20,385) (Nasdaq 100: Clearing This Key Barrier Would Signal Dip-Buying Has Legs | Investing.com). It also coincides with prior highs before the recent sell-off. A breakout above 20,300 would signify the index regaining its longer-term uptrend, potentially targeting the mid-21,000s next. However, this zone may cap the upside in the coming week unless there is a strong positive catalyst.
18,800: If weakness resumes and the recent support fails, 18,800 is a downside level to watch (near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement) . A drop toward this level would indicate a deeper pullback, though such a move appears less likely given the current bullish rebound bias.
Market Sentiment and News Drivers
Market sentiment has been improving after a volatile period, but it remains mixed. Last week, the Nasdaq 100 officially fell into a correction, dropping over 10% from its December peak amid growth fears and trade conflicts. By Friday, however, stocks staged a relief rally as bargain hunters stepped in, ending a bumpy week on a positive note. This dip-buying rebound, despite lingering risks, suggests traders are willing to re-enter at lower levels.
Several fundamental factors could impact the US100 in the coming week:
Federal Reserve Meeting (Mar 18–19): The Fed’s policy decision is a central focus. The consensus is that the Fed will hold rates steady at the current 4.25–4.50% range on Wednesday (FOMC Meeting 2025 Date & Time: What To Expect From Federal Reserve Interest Rates?), given recent signs of cooling inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will be scrutinized for clues on future rate moves. Any surprise hawkish tone could spook equities, while hints at eventual rate cuts later in the year (if economic risks rise) would cheer the market. With policy uncertainty high, expect some volatility around Wednesday’s announcement.
Inflation and Economic Data: The latest inflation report provided some relief – February CPI came in cooler than expected at 2.8% year-over-year (vs ~2.9% forecast) . This easing inflation has bolstered hopes that the Fed can stay on hold or even consider cuts if growth slows. Following CPI, the producer price index (PPI) and jobless claims data (released late last week) also gave insight into price pressures and the labor market . Looking ahead, there aren’t many major U.S. data releases this week, but traders will watch flash PMI surveys and any consumer confidence readings for signs of economic trend changes. Importantly, last week’s uptick in consumer sentiment will be monitored to see if ongoing uncertainties start eroding confidence again
Trade War and Geopolitics: Trade tensions remain a wildcard for the Nasdaq’s largely global tech constituents. President Trump’s recent flurry of tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada has injected uncertainty into markets Investors have been reacting swiftly to trade news – stocks plunged on tariff threats and bounced on hints of compromise. For example, late last week Trump backed away from an additional 25% tariff on Canadian exports, which “reignited optimism” and helped stocks rebound alongside the benign CPI report . Now, Europe is in focus: the EU threatened counter-measures to U.S. tariffs, and the U.S. warned of reciprocal duties Any escalation or resolution in these trade disputes could swing market sentiment sharply. In the coming week, keep an eye on any U.S.–China trade negotiations or announcements on tariffs – positive developments could fuel a risk-on rally in tech shares, while negative headlines could quickly revive risk-off selling.
Market Internals: The Nasdaq’s heavyweights will be influential. They led the bounce late last week , and continued strength in these leaders (on improving sentiment) would support the index. Additionally, safe-haven flows bear watching – gold prices hit record highs amid the recent stock turmoil If we see gold and bonds pulling back, it might confirm a return of risk appetite benefiting equities. Conversely, renewed flight-to-safety (rising gold, yen, Treasury prices) would signal caution that could cap Nasdaq’s upside.
Overall, the backdrop for the week is one of cautious optimism. The market has shown resilience to bad news recently (buying the dip), and there is hope that the Fed’s steady stance and cooling inflation will allow tech stocks to recover. However, unresolved trade conflicts and any hawkish surprises mean volatility can quickly return. Traders should stay alert to news headlines, as the index may react swiftly to any shifts in macroeconomic or geopolitical tone.
Trade Recommendations and Opportunities (1-Week Horizon)
Given the technical setup and current drivers, there are a couple of potential short-term trade opportunities in the US100. It’s important to choose entries near support or on confirmed breakouts, and always define your risk (stop-loss) and reward targets. Here are two strategies with favorable risk-reward for the coming week:
📈 Buy the Dip (Long near Support): The recent support zone around 19,200–19,400 presents an attractive entry for a rebound trad (Nasdaq 100: Clearing This Key Barrier Would Signal Dip-Buying Has Legs | Investing.com)】. Consider going long if the index pulls back into this area (for instance, if early-week consolidation or a Fed jitters dip brings prices back down near 19,300). This zone has Fibonacci support and buyers have defended it recently. A reasonable stop-loss could be placed just below 19,150 (below the recent swing low), to limit downside if support fails. For the upside, look for a climb back toward 20,000 or slightly below as a profit target. This yields a solid risk-reward – for example, risking roughly 200–300 points to potentially gain 600–800+ points. If bullish momentum is especially strong, you could even aim for the 20,300 area (next resistance), but given a one-week horizon, securing profits near the big 20k level is prudent. Rationale: RSI recovery and bullish momentum suggest the correction may have bottomed; buying near support allows you to ride a possible continuation of the relief rall . Just be mindful of any abrupt negative news (e.g. surprising Fed tone or tariff escalation) that could break support – hence the need for a stop.
📈 Breakout Play (Momentum Long on Break of 20k): If the index doesn’t dip much and instead pushes above key resistance, a momentum trade is possible. A clear break above ~19,765 (last week’s pivot) already signaled buyers return. The next trigger would be a strong move and 1H/4H close above 20,000. If you see the Nasdaq 100 future/index trade firmly through 20k on good volume (perhaps catalyzed by a dovish Fed remark or easing trade fears), that could signal upside follow-through. One could enter a long position on the breakout around 20,050, with a tight stop ~100 points below (back under 19,950, in case it’s a false breakout). The first target would be the 200-day MA zone near 20,300-20,400, which is likely to be tested if 20k is clear. This trade risks ~100 points to make ~250-350, a favorable ~2.5-3.5:1 ratio. Rationale: A break of 20k would indicate the index is overcoming a major hurdle and shorts may rush to cover. With improving sentiment, a quick 1-2% pop could occur. But because 20k is such a strong level, ensure confirmation (don’t jump in on a brief spike). If the breakout falters, be ready to cut losses fast.
🔻 (Alternate) Sell into Strength (Short at Resistance): While the bias leans bullish this week, an aggressive counter-trend trade could be to sell/short if the index spikes into the 20,300–20,400 resistance and shows signs of stalling. For instance, if after the Fed meeting the Nasdaq surges toward the 200-day MA but then prints a reversal pattern (e.g. a bearish candle or RSI divergence) around 20,300+, it may signal a near-term top. A short entry in the 20,300s with a tight stop above 20,500 (just beyond the 200-day and round-number buffer) could be considered. The pullback target could be back to ~19,800 or 19,500. This contrarian idea would be capitalizing on an overbought rally hitting a known supply zone. Rationale: The 200-day MA and prior highs will be tough to crack on the first, especially if there isn’t a new positive catalyst beyond what’s expected. Any disappointment (say the Fed is less dovish than hoped, or no progress on trade issues) around that time could trigger profit-taking. This trade carries more risk (fading the bullish trend), so it’s only for those watching closely and it should be exited quickly if the index powers straight through 20,500.
Risk-Reward and Risk Management: Both long setups above have at least a 2:1 or 3:1 reward-to-risk profile, which is desirable. Always adjust position size so that if the trade goes wrong (stop is hit), the loss is manageable for your account. Given the event risk this week (Fed meeting), consider using stop-loss orders to protect against sudden moves. It’s also wise to take partial profits if the index approaches an interim barrier (for example, lighten the long position near 20k and trail your stop up, in case it reverses from there). The short setup, if taken, should be managed even more tightly due to the overall uptrend resumption — treat it as a quick tactical trade.
Conclusion
In summary, the US100 index is at an inflection point. Technically, it shows signs of a budding short-term recovery: oversold conditions have eased, and the index is climbing from key support toward major resista. The coming week’s news – especially the Fed’s stance and any trade developments – will determine if this rebound has legs. A break above 20,000 would mark a bullish shift in trend, whereas failure to penetrate that ceiling (or a shock that sends the index back below ~19,300) would keep the market in a choppy trading range. By combining technical cues (like moving average levels, RSI/Stochastic signals) with awareness of the news flow, traders can identify high-probability entry points. The best opportunities appear to be buying on weakness as long as support holds, or buying the breakout if bullish momentum accelerates – both with defined risk. With prudent risk management, the US100’s current setup offers an attractive chance to capture a continuation of the tech rally that could play out over the next week.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.