Dow 'Big Yikes' moment as it gravely lags behind BigTech rally
A stock-market rally concentrated on an ever-narrowing cohort of tech stocks is leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average behind as the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), Nasdaq-100 hit records, making investors nervous.
The scope of the divergence on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq-100 finishing posting a 1.33% gain versus a 0.09% fall for the Dow DJIA was particularly troubling.
This is quite rare moment as the Dow posted a daily close more than 1.0 percentage points below Nasdaq-100 Index and more than 0.9% below S&P500 Index.
That is a 'Big Yikes' moment.
It's largely a statement on very bad breadth of the market, as we're incredibly reliant on just a very small number of names.
The rally more recently, he noted, has been driven largely by longtime AI favorite Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), and Apple Inc. (AAPL), which has surged nearly 9% this week as it outlined its own plans to add AI to its products.
The Super concentration is manifested in any number of breadth statistics, which track how many stocks in an index are participating in a move, including the percentage of stocks at 52-week highs versus 52-week lows and the percentage above their 200-day moving average.
For example, just one component of SP500 Index - that is Nvidia.. had accounted for 35% of the increase in the S&P 500's market cap in 2024.
Such a high concentration implies that if NVIDIA continues to rise, then things are fine and dandy.
But if it starts to decline, then the market will be hit hard.
Overall, presidential-election years tend to be strong ones for the market, particularly in the fourth quarter. And years that begin strong also tend to hold up.
But everything could end, earlier or later.
The main chart is the ratio between Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and Dow Jones (DJI) Indices. That indicates that June quarter posting an extremely new historical high between these two Major indices, first time over the past 25 years.
A very historical times we live.
The scope of the divergence on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq-100 finishing posting a 1.33% gain versus a 0.09% fall for the Dow DJIA was particularly troubling.
This is quite rare moment as the Dow posted a daily close more than 1.0 percentage points below Nasdaq-100 Index and more than 0.9% below S&P500 Index.
That is a 'Big Yikes' moment.
It's largely a statement on very bad breadth of the market, as we're incredibly reliant on just a very small number of names.
The rally more recently, he noted, has been driven largely by longtime AI favorite Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), and Apple Inc. (AAPL), which has surged nearly 9% this week as it outlined its own plans to add AI to its products.
The Super concentration is manifested in any number of breadth statistics, which track how many stocks in an index are participating in a move, including the percentage of stocks at 52-week highs versus 52-week lows and the percentage above their 200-day moving average.
For example, just one component of SP500 Index - that is Nvidia.. had accounted for 35% of the increase in the S&P 500's market cap in 2024.
Such a high concentration implies that if NVIDIA continues to rise, then things are fine and dandy.
But if it starts to decline, then the market will be hit hard.
Overall, presidential-election years tend to be strong ones for the market, particularly in the fourth quarter. And years that begin strong also tend to hold up.
But everything could end, earlier or later.
The main chart is the ratio between Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and Dow Jones (DJI) Indices. That indicates that June quarter posting an extremely new historical high between these two Major indices, first time over the past 25 years.
A very historical times we live.
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