SHORT - Nasdaq 100
Updated
This one is fairly simple, on a 2 week chart the NDX has had 8 consecutive up candles where each has had its close greater than its open. This has only happened a handle full of times and holding this short for 3 candles has yielded these results in the NDX going back to 1985. The other times where there has been this sort of move has been highlighted with a white rectangle so feel free to scroll back on the chart to see :)
1999-02-01: Profit = +5.54 % | Run-up = +12.33 % | Drawdown = -1.11 %
2012-04-09: Profit = +8.94 % | Run-up = +9.22 % | Drawdown = -1.13 %
2019-04-15: Profit = +4.05 % | Run-up = +4.84 % | Drawdown = -2.90 %
2020-01-21: Profit = +6.29 % | Run-up = +11.06 % | Drawdown = -6.46 %
Keeping in mind that holding for 3 two week candles is 6 weeks so about a month and a half. Given how volatile the markets have been the drawdown for this position may likely exceed the maximum historical drawdown of -6.46% so be careful when sizing a position especially when using any type of leverage.
The estimated profit is just a straight average of the historical trades above so approximately 9-9.50% which would put NDX around 9500-9600. Still this is a time based exit so 3 candles but it is always useful knowing where the trade could end up just in-case you want to set a profit target.
This trade was actually set to open at today's open however fortunately it was an up day. Official short entry would be 10,487.10. So anything above or around it is swell.
1999-02-01: Profit = +5.54 % | Run-up = +12.33 % | Drawdown = -1.11 %
2012-04-09: Profit = +8.94 % | Run-up = +9.22 % | Drawdown = -1.13 %
2019-04-15: Profit = +4.05 % | Run-up = +4.84 % | Drawdown = -2.90 %
2020-01-21: Profit = +6.29 % | Run-up = +11.06 % | Drawdown = -6.46 %
Keeping in mind that holding for 3 two week candles is 6 weeks so about a month and a half. Given how volatile the markets have been the drawdown for this position may likely exceed the maximum historical drawdown of -6.46% so be careful when sizing a position especially when using any type of leverage.
The estimated profit is just a straight average of the historical trades above so approximately 9-9.50% which would put NDX around 9500-9600. Still this is a time based exit so 3 candles but it is always useful knowing where the trade could end up just in-case you want to set a profit target.
This trade was actually set to open at today's open however fortunately it was an up day. Official short entry would be 10,487.10. So anything above or around it is swell.
Note
Currently on bar 11 in a row up MonkaS... still short, looking to add to SQQQ. Not a huge position as is since I was gone for a week on vacation but I've got a tan now and I'm ready to size up.
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