NDX 100 Fibonacci Retracement Scenarios

Updated

This Weekly Chart - Looking at the most Basic scenarios, the NDX 100 has been on a Tear since the beginning of January 2023 after a basic Tech Sector Crash through 2022. It's now clearly in a Double Top Sell Scenario however the upper trend is still showing some Robust Bullishness so I've presented 3 possible retracement scenario's. #1 is a Hiccup, #2 is a bit of a stronger correction, and #3 though stronger yet I don't see it anywhere close to following suit as 2022. My prediction is for a potential 50% retracement of 3 select movements that I expect could take only as long as 3-4 months to complete before investor exhuberance takes hold once again to push the markets considerably higher breaking out from the double top resitance line and closing 2024 in Strong Fashion. We shall see which set-up prevails.

Note

My opinion of the NDX chart hasn't changed even though the price went higher from where I was first at. This first update is showing the Daily chart where the ADX is having a Hard time keeping up and advancing with the previous new high. My expectation is for the Market to retrace back to the 200 day EMA as previously seen at the end of October although it'll be closer to the $15200 mark. The Second Chart is again a weekly and although at a glance it does have Bullish overtones I maintain my opinion that a significant pullback is due.

Note

I'm still maintaining my original idea that there is a correction due and today's candle appears to likely close solidly below the 7 day EMA for the first time in 17 trading days and to me that will be the first of a series of signals to be triggered. The MFI is also showing a negative divergence contrary to the upward price movement indicating that it may be time for the reversal to kick in.

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Let's get things back to normal. I have not believed in this rally for a while now.
It appears that I'm the lone standout in this regards but a pull back is long overdue imho.

Note

As much as the market keeps Rallying on ai and Big Tech and the Magnificent Seven I am relentless in believing that a correction is due and has been due for a couple of months. I am of the belief that this year, not only has the FED delayed dropping interest rates but there may likely be another 2 rate increases up to 50 basis points later this year to curb this Over enthusiatc and unwarranted market run... Even a Broken clock is correct twice a day and so shall I be, eventually. : )

grahammk

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