Nasdaq 100 IndexShort
Nasdaq Tactical Short Trade Idea Update
A relief rally for US equity markets o/n as investors continued to juggle two key uncertainties. The first is the magnitude of the Feds anticipated rate cut at next week's meeting. The second is the uncertainty surrounding the US election, with recent polls showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris locked in a tight race.
In the next 40 hrs, we may gain insight into both uncertainties. The second US Presidential debate is set for tomorrow at midday Sydney time. A decisive debate win by one candidate might stabilise markets as voters and betting markets rally behind a frontrunner. The opposite is also true if there is no clear winner. Secondly, US CPI data is scheduled for release on Wednesday night at 10:30 pm, which can help shape expectations around the size of the Fed's first-rate next week.
Last Monday, we moved to tactical short bias in the Nasdaq 100 (published on TV on Sep 4). The short recommendation was based on the idea that the correction in the Nasdaq 100 from the 20,690 high to the August 17453 low was missing a leg lower towards the 18,000/17,700 support area (coming from the 200-day moving average and uptrend support from the December 10,671 low) against the seasonally weak backdrop of September. There is a possibility of downside overshoot towards support at 17,000, a wave equality target.
We have lowered our bearish reassessment level from 19,750 to 19,450 – just above last week’s high. You can watch this week's video update ⬇️
youtube.com/watch?v=5Pk-M4ANj-E
In the next 40 hrs, we may gain insight into both uncertainties. The second US Presidential debate is set for tomorrow at midday Sydney time. A decisive debate win by one candidate might stabilise markets as voters and betting markets rally behind a frontrunner. The opposite is also true if there is no clear winner. Secondly, US CPI data is scheduled for release on Wednesday night at 10:30 pm, which can help shape expectations around the size of the Fed's first-rate next week.
Last Monday, we moved to tactical short bias in the Nasdaq 100 (published on TV on Sep 4). The short recommendation was based on the idea that the correction in the Nasdaq 100 from the 20,690 high to the August 17453 low was missing a leg lower towards the 18,000/17,700 support area (coming from the 200-day moving average and uptrend support from the December 10,671 low) against the seasonally weak backdrop of September. There is a possibility of downside overshoot towards support at 17,000, a wave equality target.
We have lowered our bearish reassessment level from 19,750 to 19,450 – just above last week’s high. You can watch this week's video update ⬇️
youtube.com/watch?v=5Pk-M4ANj-E
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.