US 100 IndexLong
NDX long 10.000 before EOY 2020
Seeing everyone bearish for a month because they just discovered the (future) catastrophic impact of Covid-19, while the NDX is still going up.
First, yes I agree with most bearish FA here, but please note that even with my average-Joe knownledge, I was expecting the bad news already in March (especially for the US).
If I could predict it with my stupid mind, I think the markets might also have priced it before everybody getting more and more bearish in Apr. / May.
So let me share my analysis (which is more like a request for comments).
TA :
+ Looks like a nice V-shape recovery (history says bullish).
+ Weekly RSI healthy and can go higher.
+ Very green overall (and I like green).
+ NDX/M2 shows there is space for more uptrend.
- Nasdaq always looks like a bubble.
- V-shape recovery could be a dead cat bounce.
FA :
+ To me, there is no "bearish market" or "bullish market" anymore for the medium term. During the last decades, the world has been slowly moving towards reducing costs and using more tech, making the tech caps bigger and bigger. The covid-19 will create an impulsion and then an acceleration of this process. Small caps and "old world" companies are going to take a hit, as well as some sectors (airlines being the most obvious, but maybe not the only one ?). On the other hand, tech will grow even faster and big caps will conquier market shares.
+ As overvalued as they can be, big tech caps are the best mix of defensive values for the short term and growth values for the long term.
+ The logic would be that "traditionnal" companies go down a lot, while tech companies take would go down a bit. I think the FED actions (and speculation on the FED actions) are might make the "traditionnal" companies "float" on their trend line instead of sinking, which to me might propulse the tech companies even higher since they are doing well in comparison.
+ Printing so much funny money might be a problem for the long term, but as far as stock market goes, it means inflation (you can see it by comparing NDX with NDX/M2). Big tech caps are like gold (they are probably going to keep their value over time) except they still have growth potential.
+- Bonds are less profitable and in a bubble, but I am not educated enough to know what it means. But apparently there could be lots of money looking for more profitable assets (?).
- To me, a huge correction is due for all the US markets. I just don't think it is going to happen right now.
The point of this post is to share my thoughts and to find counter-arguments against what seems to be a bearish thinking.
Please note that I am totally bearish on the real economy and I think that the inequalites are going to increate and that notion of value and money will be heavily discussed during the next decade.
I am just drawing different conclusions regarding the stock market.
I'd like to know what you think and on what point(s) you disagree with me.
(and yes, title is a bit clickbait)
First, yes I agree with most bearish FA here, but please note that even with my average-Joe knownledge, I was expecting the bad news already in March (especially for the US).
If I could predict it with my stupid mind, I think the markets might also have priced it before everybody getting more and more bearish in Apr. / May.
So let me share my analysis (which is more like a request for comments).
TA :
+ Looks like a nice V-shape recovery (history says bullish).
+ Weekly RSI healthy and can go higher.
+ Very green overall (and I like green).
+ NDX/M2 shows there is space for more uptrend.
- Nasdaq always looks like a bubble.
- V-shape recovery could be a dead cat bounce.
FA :
+ To me, there is no "bearish market" or "bullish market" anymore for the medium term. During the last decades, the world has been slowly moving towards reducing costs and using more tech, making the tech caps bigger and bigger. The covid-19 will create an impulsion and then an acceleration of this process. Small caps and "old world" companies are going to take a hit, as well as some sectors (airlines being the most obvious, but maybe not the only one ?). On the other hand, tech will grow even faster and big caps will conquier market shares.
+ As overvalued as they can be, big tech caps are the best mix of defensive values for the short term and growth values for the long term.
+ The logic would be that "traditionnal" companies go down a lot, while tech companies take would go down a bit. I think the FED actions (and speculation on the FED actions) are might make the "traditionnal" companies "float" on their trend line instead of sinking, which to me might propulse the tech companies even higher since they are doing well in comparison.
+ Printing so much funny money might be a problem for the long term, but as far as stock market goes, it means inflation (you can see it by comparing NDX with NDX/M2). Big tech caps are like gold (they are probably going to keep their value over time) except they still have growth potential.
+- Bonds are less profitable and in a bubble, but I am not educated enough to know what it means. But apparently there could be lots of money looking for more profitable assets (?).
- To me, a huge correction is due for all the US markets. I just don't think it is going to happen right now.
The point of this post is to share my thoughts and to find counter-arguments against what seems to be a bearish thinking.
Please note that I am totally bearish on the real economy and I think that the inequalites are going to increate and that notion of value and money will be heavily discussed during the next decade.
I am just drawing different conclusions regarding the stock market.
I'd like to know what you think and on what point(s) you disagree with me.
(and yes, title is a bit clickbait)
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.