The technical setup is very clear and strong. The resistance level is well-defined. The fundamental news, while positive, is not reporting the kind of extreme, immediate buying pressure we saw with ENA. The news about developer activity is a long-term positive, but it doesn't invalidate a potential short-term pullback from a major resistance level.
Therefore, the technical setup is compelling enough to take the trade, but we must be strict with our risk management because the underlying fundamentals are healthy.
let's break it down!
Technical Analysis
Let's start with the chart. The daily chart for NEARUSDT shows a clear recovery rally from the lows of early July. The price has now pushed up to the $3.00 - $3.10 resistance zone. This level is significant because it served as a reliable support floor during April and May 2025 before the price broke down in June. The chart shows the price is currently stalling right at this level, with today's candle showing a slight rejection. This is a classic "old support turning into new resistance" setup, making it a technically sound area for a potential short entry.
Sentiment and Fundamental Analysis
Now, let's analyze the provided news to see if the market sentiment aligns with our bearish technical view. (news taken from CoinMarketCap)
The sentiment for NEAR is mixed, but leaning slightly bullish on fundamentals. The strongest and most recent piece of relevant news is about high developer activity, which is a positive sign. However, unlike the ENA news which showed massive, active buying pressure and whale involvement right now, the news for NEAR is more about long-term health rather than immediate, explosive buying pressure. There is no overwhelming bullish momentum that screams "don't short this."
The Trade Plan: NEARUSDT (Short)
The plan is set. We're entering a short position with a market entry now, around $2.96.
Entering a short position as the price tests a key horizontal resistance zone ($3.00-$3.10) that was previously strong support. The daily candle shows initial signs of rejection.
Stop Loss (SL): $3.35
A decisive close above the resistance zone would invalidate our trade idea. Placing the SL at $3.35 puts it clearly above the entire resistance area and above the minor swing high from late May, giving the trade room to breathe without taking on excessive risk.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): $2.55 (Moonbag Target)
This is the first significant support level on the way down, corresponding to the consolidation area in mid-July. It's a logical first target for sellers.
At TP1, take initial profits and move the trailing stop to our entry price (~$2.96) to make the rest of the trade risk-free.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): $2.20
This level corresponds to the next support area from the price action in early July. It represents a significant portion of the recent rally being retraced.
When TP2 is hit, move the trailing stop down to the TP1 level ($2.55) to lock in more profit.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): $1.85
This targets the major swing low from early July. A move to this level would mean a full retracement of the recent rally.
When TP3 is hit, move the trailing stop down to the TP2 level ($2.20).
Take Profit 4 (TP4): $1.55 (Final Target)
This is our final target, aiming for the lows of the year from March. In a bearish scenario where the resistance holds firmly, a retest of major lows is possible.
Close all remaining positions.
Conclusion:
The NEARUSDT short trade presents a good technical opportunity. While the fundamentals are not bearish, they lack the overwhelming bullish force seen in other coins, making this trade a calculated risk worth taking. The plan is now in place.
Therefore, the technical setup is compelling enough to take the trade, but we must be strict with our risk management because the underlying fundamentals are healthy.
let's break it down!
Technical Analysis
Let's start with the chart. The daily chart for NEARUSDT shows a clear recovery rally from the lows of early July. The price has now pushed up to the $3.00 - $3.10 resistance zone. This level is significant because it served as a reliable support floor during April and May 2025 before the price broke down in June. The chart shows the price is currently stalling right at this level, with today's candle showing a slight rejection. This is a classic "old support turning into new resistance" setup, making it a technically sound area for a potential short entry.
Sentiment and Fundamental Analysis
Now, let's analyze the provided news to see if the market sentiment aligns with our bearish technical view. (news taken from CoinMarketCap)
- "GitHub Kings: LINK, ATOM, STORJ, and NEAR Dominate Crypto Development in 5-Month Activity..." (2 days ago): This is fundamentally bullish. High developer activity is a key indicator of a healthy and growing ecosystem. It suggests long-term value and innovation, which is a positive sign.
- "NEAR Protocol Rebounds 9% as Investors Capitalize on Market Dislocation" (2 days ago): This headline is fairly neutral. It simply describes recent price action (a rebound) and attributes it to investors buying a dip. It doesn't provide a strong directional bias for the future.
- "Luno launches first-ever crypto staking in Nigeria: What it means and how you can benefit" (3 days ago): While this article mentions crypto staking in general, it does not appear to be directly related to NEAR Protocol itself. Therefore, its impact on NEAR's sentiment is negligible. We can consider this neutral.
- "NEAR Protocol Integrates EdDSA Signatures to Enhance Cross-Chain Compatibility" (2 months ago): While positive fundamental news, this is old information. Its impact has likely already been priced into the market and it has little bearing on the immediate price action. We can consider this neutral for our immediate trade decision.
The sentiment for NEAR is mixed, but leaning slightly bullish on fundamentals. The strongest and most recent piece of relevant news is about high developer activity, which is a positive sign. However, unlike the ENA news which showed massive, active buying pressure and whale involvement right now, the news for NEAR is more about long-term health rather than immediate, explosive buying pressure. There is no overwhelming bullish momentum that screams "don't short this."
The Trade Plan: NEARUSDT (Short)
The plan is set. We're entering a short position with a market entry now, around $2.96.
Entering a short position as the price tests a key horizontal resistance zone ($3.00-$3.10) that was previously strong support. The daily candle shows initial signs of rejection.
Stop Loss (SL): $3.35
A decisive close above the resistance zone would invalidate our trade idea. Placing the SL at $3.35 puts it clearly above the entire resistance area and above the minor swing high from late May, giving the trade room to breathe without taking on excessive risk.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): $2.55 (Moonbag Target)
This is the first significant support level on the way down, corresponding to the consolidation area in mid-July. It's a logical first target for sellers.
At TP1, take initial profits and move the trailing stop to our entry price (~$2.96) to make the rest of the trade risk-free.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): $2.20
This level corresponds to the next support area from the price action in early July. It represents a significant portion of the recent rally being retraced.
When TP2 is hit, move the trailing stop down to the TP1 level ($2.55) to lock in more profit.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): $1.85
This targets the major swing low from early July. A move to this level would mean a full retracement of the recent rally.
When TP3 is hit, move the trailing stop down to the TP2 level ($2.20).
Take Profit 4 (TP4): $1.55 (Final Target)
This is our final target, aiming for the lows of the year from March. In a bearish scenario where the resistance holds firmly, a retest of major lows is possible.
Close all remaining positions.
Conclusion:
The NEARUSDT short trade presents a good technical opportunity. While the fundamentals are not bearish, they lack the overwhelming bullish force seen in other coins, making this trade a calculated risk worth taking. The plan is now in place.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.