NEAR - trading near the fibs
Updated
NEAR has one of the cleanest trading setups currently using fib retracement. It is considered quite resilient during the entire macro panic dump - didn't test the 0.5 at all, on the 4hr candle it was a wick which closed above the 0.618 levels, which was a good bounce level for another 2 times during the retracement and held to $10 quite closely. I am using the futures chart from the app of bybit.com as my other charts are clogged with many old drawings.
Trading plan - 3 scenarios
Very bullish - 30%
Currently it has just broken through the old ATH, hit an old resistance level and rejected into a supply zone (thanks to BTC’s volatility). Currently trading at 12.6 levels. While waiting for the NFP news on friday to kick in, You can buy some here now if you believe the old resistance will turn into support, wait for a upwards trend towards the old resistance at 13.85 and 15.96. The overhead targets are ATH (~$20) and then the 2.618 fib (23.6) then 3.615 (30.35). Ideally, you would be adding on 5-10% pullbacks from fib or resistance rejections during the uptrend once the pattern plays out e.g. if rejected off 1.618 fib off (~$17), you can set bids at ~$16 levels but beware of being front-runned as whole numbers are key psychological level other traders would bid on. TLDR add on 5-10% pullbacks
Conservative bullish - 50%
Best move to increase your risk:reward and expect a crab market for another 2 weeks as things might be too heated with BTC's 5k candles printing daily - you want to be buying when there isn't hype and where Fear and Greed Index prints lower numbers (thanks BTC). Buying near the 0.786 fib = DCA buying at ~$11.4. Expecting sideways bounce between the fib levels 0.786 and 1 or the supply zone, with a hopeful wick towards 0.618/$10.2 (set a bid there) to shakeout and trigger stop losses before heading higher. Targets overhead are within the month of Feb and possibly March: 13.8, 15.9, 17 (1.618 fib) and then ATH of $20.2. TLDR load up on retracements towards the 0.5-0.786 fibs
Bearish - 20%
Somehow you are convinced BTC has not bottomed and will head towards 24k (20k is for bitboy believers kekk). This would mean current levels are a fake out and would reverse down. At this point you might believe BTC 38.5k to be the higher low to be formed. I took the liberty of drawing a line down from near ATH to current weekly high of 13.8 to see the immediate resistance trendline we need to overcome. A dump would probably set us back to lower fib levels at prices of $11.4 and $10.2, which is near a nice round number $10 where more bids would be filled. Would expect the resistance trendline to hold and then send it lower to 0.382 levels (8.7) and finally 6.36 (old support level). Strategy would be simply short on touches with trendline or higher fib levels (sell high, buy low)
As you can see the trading plan is very fib and TA driven + we have such a clean chart despite all the noise recently. You can learn more via learn.bybit.com/trading/how-to-use-fibonacci-retracement-tool/ to know what the levels mean as each number has certain significance in both bearish and bullish cases.
Trading plan - 3 scenarios
Very bullish - 30%
Currently it has just broken through the old ATH, hit an old resistance level and rejected into a supply zone (thanks to BTC’s volatility). Currently trading at 12.6 levels. While waiting for the NFP news on friday to kick in, You can buy some here now if you believe the old resistance will turn into support, wait for a upwards trend towards the old resistance at 13.85 and 15.96. The overhead targets are ATH (~$20) and then the 2.618 fib (23.6) then 3.615 (30.35). Ideally, you would be adding on 5-10% pullbacks from fib or resistance rejections during the uptrend once the pattern plays out e.g. if rejected off 1.618 fib off (~$17), you can set bids at ~$16 levels but beware of being front-runned as whole numbers are key psychological level other traders would bid on. TLDR add on 5-10% pullbacks
Conservative bullish - 50%
Best move to increase your risk:reward and expect a crab market for another 2 weeks as things might be too heated with BTC's 5k candles printing daily - you want to be buying when there isn't hype and where Fear and Greed Index prints lower numbers (thanks BTC). Buying near the 0.786 fib = DCA buying at ~$11.4. Expecting sideways bounce between the fib levels 0.786 and 1 or the supply zone, with a hopeful wick towards 0.618/$10.2 (set a bid there) to shakeout and trigger stop losses before heading higher. Targets overhead are within the month of Feb and possibly March: 13.8, 15.9, 17 (1.618 fib) and then ATH of $20.2. TLDR load up on retracements towards the 0.5-0.786 fibs
Bearish - 20%
Somehow you are convinced BTC has not bottomed and will head towards 24k (20k is for bitboy believers kekk). This would mean current levels are a fake out and would reverse down. At this point you might believe BTC 38.5k to be the higher low to be formed. I took the liberty of drawing a line down from near ATH to current weekly high of 13.8 to see the immediate resistance trendline we need to overcome. A dump would probably set us back to lower fib levels at prices of $11.4 and $10.2, which is near a nice round number $10 where more bids would be filled. Would expect the resistance trendline to hold and then send it lower to 0.382 levels (8.7) and finally 6.36 (old support level). Strategy would be simply short on touches with trendline or higher fib levels (sell high, buy low)
As you can see the trading plan is very fib and TA driven + we have such a clean chart despite all the noise recently. You can learn more via learn.bybit.com/trading/how-to-use-fibonacci-retracement-tool/ to know what the levels mean as each number has certain significance in both bearish and bullish cases.
Comment
Bearish target achieved and then new news came out. Can play towards conservative bull soon
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