Long

Newegg bottoming might be in progress? First target 2.30 USD

Updated

I have following newegg for quiet a few years now. Tehcnicly it is possible we have either bottomed, OR will bottom in the very near future.

From an elliott wave perspective I have 2 scenarios, where scenario one assumes we have already bottomed in the consolidation zone down around 1 USD. (Even if we have not bottomed, we gonna get a bigger ABC-or WXY correction possibly reaching at least the 1:1 target).

It is possible (but not guaranteed) we have put in the first subwave 1 as a leading diagonal (expanding rising wedge), where we have moved in 3 counts in each wave as an abc (watch for extended trading hours!!!).
We could argue where is the white wave 1 top - either we had an overshooting b wave and the yellow c wave already bottomed as well (possible), OR the b wave currently forming and will followed by the yellow c wave down, but keeping the higher low overall.

I am scaling in slowly on the pullbacks for now with the stoploss just under 1.00 USD. Since it is a leading diagonal at best, we cannot really trust it until it proves itself. I am waiting to see a more defined abc pullback structure for now, support areas are added.

Overall we have just danced around the 200day MA, 180day MA provided support, all the other moving averages (9/21/50) are below us, in case pullback coming possibly giving as more support. Daily RSI and MACD turning upside, selloff slowing down, and about to diverge (already in convergence). Weekly datas getting stronger (RSI/MACD), and currently we are above the defined baseline, which will also possibly provide support on pullbacks. Whoever like formations, seemingly we are forming a bigger falling wedge (bullish), even is the lows not in YET (then it is quiet near probably). Also, it is not uncommon that if wave 2 have finished and starting/started the white wave 3, will form some kind of inverse head and shoulders, watch for that as a little confirmation (still not guarantee).

Overall I think it has a good chance now to bottom and start an upside cycle.

Trade active

Small position (10%) added @ 1.17

Trade active

Small position (10%) added @ 1.27

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No major event so far. Buyers/sellers trying to decide the scenario. My primary is still the one, that lows might be in, we had a wave 1 (or wave A) to the upside as a diagonal, with an overshooting b wave in the correction, and now about to finish soon the c wave down as the wave 2 (or wave B) pullback. Question is, if we gonna get a double zigzag-like price action or not, so how deep will we pull back. Currently sitting on a well defined support line.

Trade active

Small position (10%) added @ 1.21

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We have broken down under the 50day MA which is a problem, if we do not jump back above it in the upcoming 2-3 days, then I would say more downside is coming possibly with new lows.

The big support fib orange box coming into effect again. Possibly we are having now the c wave down within the white wave 2, and the price actions now suggests we did not have an overshooting b wave, so I adjusted the wavecounts. Normally we should not drop below comfortably under 1.12 USD, otherwise chances high, this moveup from way was not a wave 1 as a diagonal but just a correction to the upside.

Trade active

Mid size position added @ 1.07

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Moment of truth coming soon. We are neering to max out the retracement IF we have bottomed. Invalidation at the dotted line, however under 1.05-1.06 comfortably is already a big warning sign.

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So price has reacted on the 0.887 fib level, also we broke out from the wedge.
Now, it is very important not to drop below 1.07 USD, otherwise I would say probably the bottoming process has been delayed, and we are going down lower, possibly under 0.9-0.8 USD.

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So far it is exactly holding the 1.07 USD line, but we are dropping too fast.
Also, best it is a 3 count move up... Very unreliable as of the moment. Now if we make a new low, problem is, it is not an abc to the downside anymore, but a 5 wave move, suggesting it is going way way lower then.

1.06 is a critical level, 1.07 should NOT be broken. If we loose 1.06 that is a first warning sign, bottoming is postponed, and if we lose 1.02 level, it is confirmed.

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Wavecount likely not going to work out, dropping too deep.

95% chance we are going lower below 1.01 usd

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So far the primary wavecount is not yet invalidated, but again, we are dropped too deep. I have kept the counts so far, below 1.02 it is invalidating, and cannot be a wave 1 and 2 anymore, not even in an abc format.

Also, seemingly the falling wedge is invalidated; except if we now impulsively going up. Only working out the wavecounts, if now we switch to a really strong updtrend, and
- first we take out 1.14 comfortably
- second we take out 1.23 comfortably
- third we take out 1.43 comfortably
-all theese with preferably shallow pullbacks
-moving in 5 counts structure to the upside

The reason for this:
even if this is not a 1-2 setup currently, but an a-b from an a-b-c bigger "correction", according to this count we have to start then either the 3rd wave, or the C wave, both being strong. If no strong move to the upside happening, that suggests, we are possibly just in the 1st wave of the last 5th wave to the downside, and thats the reason. Meaning= bottoming is postponing like I mentioned previously.

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Very indecisive, one the most miserable stock I have witnessed in a while...

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Possible 1-2 structure invalidated, best case scenario we gonna have an ABC correction, possibly with an undershooting b wave.

This means, if we do not shoot down now impulsively, and turn around soon, then, and only then it can go up possibly to 1.70 as target 1, and less likely, but possible to ~2.40 USD. Then possibly we gonna go down more, first target is ~0.8 USD, except if price will hold then the defined support levels (we do not know it yet).

Be aware though, chances growing now dramatically this will simply break down if it does not turn around now.

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Undershooting "b" wave scenario is also heavily challenged now, we are now maxing out the drop to consider it. Also, it is now looking motive to the downside.

One scenario I sketched out, we are now in the white wave iii, then we should get a corrective bounce to put in wave iv, and then again a new low with wave v.

We need to have a clear 5 waves up from there, with a 3 waves corrective pullback to confim possible bottom in place. Likely it is postponed.

From now, a few more cent drop possible, and then if we shoot up breaking 1.16 in an impulsive way, THEN there is a chance it is an undershooting b wave, but for now, i would give it 10% remaining chance. Even then, after yellow route is done, a big drop would come 99%.

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The postponed bottoming might happen soon, seemingly at least one more swing low is missing to complete white wave (v). The first indication, that we could have starting the first or "A" wave up is breaking consistently above the trendline and not falling below the previous swing low.

Be aware, that would be our first swing up. Also it would be important to put in 5 waves up with 3 waves pullback, preferably on a longer scale also breaking above comfortably the red resistance box. Then I would say we could have a second strong indication that the lows are in.

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We have broke out to the upside from the purple descending channel, trendline broken to the upside.

On the MACD and RSI bullish divergence has been built in the 1hr/2hr/4hr, and still building in early phases on the daily. Weekly is not showing it so far.

Now, TECHNICLY the white wave v could be in, just be aware it is still very early stages, and we still might get a bigger drawdown, as per the yellow alternative route/wavecount. it CAN be, that we just forming alternatively the yellow wave iv (alt for white wave iv), and in order to shift more probabilisticly to the white route, we need to comfortably break above the red resistance fib box.

The white route suggest, maybe the wave 1 to the upside already started (or a big A wave, we do not know it yet, far away), and that we have the first micro 5 wave up as a smaller degree wave 1.

Now I do expect maybe an other small or maybe 2 swinglows, I have added an orange support box. For both the white and the yellow I do expect the pullback, they are going together for a while. Again, for the yellow route we wont be able to break above resistance, for the white we will. Very early stages. Later I can add new support/resistance areas and update the wavecounts, right now there is just not enough data yet. I have however sketched out roughly speaking the two possible routes, be aware, not proportionals!!!

If now we drop comfortably the small orange support box, then it CAN happen that we just had a very shallow yellow alt wave iv, and that in 5 waves we are going down deeper, therefore either the yellow route playing out sooner, or something way more bearish is going on. For the yellow route I would say somewhere it would land around the 0.25-0.3 marking, time wise it is unpredictable.

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Not much has been changed. On the bottom swing price action reacted exactly where it needed to (max) as a yellow b wave OR white circle wave 2. Bottoming is NOT confirmed yet.

Now, In case the white route to play out, I mean to have any chance further, i want to see price action hits the blue 1.618 extension, before any meaningful pullback. Be aware, even then, technicly it CAN still be just the alt wave iv before a bigger drawdown likely to 30-40 cents level. So both in play. Once a top in place, I can add resistance levels, till then I am just still observing and counting/recalculating wavecounts.

RSI/MACD showing upside potential, but it is even then in early stages. Moving averages currently still not comfortably taken out.

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Price action exactly reached the 1.618 blue extension. Which is kind of a minimum target for the white circle wave 3. This STILL CAN BE just the "orange alt wave iv!!!. Ultimately now it depends how deep the pullback will be once it is starting.

I have added also the 200% extension, IF price wants to first climb higher, that would be a next target for circle wave 3 OR the alt iv.

I have also added a small green fib support box for a potential circle wave 4, BUT price should not cut to the territory of wave 1 highs at 70 cents.

Again, so far on the non-micro, but on the mini- level this is just a 3 wave move to the upside and we need ultimately 5.

And eventually on the normal level we also want 5 waves up breaking comfortably above resistance.

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Fib levels/boxes updated. We are still in this wave 3 OR yellow c (alt iv). We are reaching now structural resistance, 200% extension have been reached. I have added further extensions to the upside, however probabilities starting to shift this runup should be over and we due for a pullback.

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We are still having a 3 wave move to the upside as per I see it!!!
Now it will depend on the pullback, how deep it goes and if bulls able to hold a white circle wave 4 and then push it higher to have overall the first small 5 waves up on a mini-level. Fib boxes adjusted.

It is less reliable, but POSSIBLE (less probable though) we gonna move in 3 counts to the upside. In that case the lower fib support box SHOULD hold, and then in 3 counts move higher and higher.

And the yellow route is still in play, then not even the lower fib support area will be able to hold.

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So, price action pulled back to the green area likely forming the white small wave 4, AND finally we made a new high, suggesting the small wave 5 is in play currently. It has reached the minimum target, not only that, it has entering in the optimal zone now. Technically it can be finished, but possible we are getting extensions. I have adjusted the fib support and resistance areas on the past week happenings.

The yellow route in its previous format is not possible anymore, BUT a still somewhat bearish case possible, so I have adjusted the yellow route as well. It is getting less probable for now. Might be counterproductitve what I say: if we get too much extension to the upside now, actually that would strengthen the yellow route, and not the white. We can still go 5-10-12-15% higher in the white but imminently we want to se a 3 wave pullback to the orange fib support box before heavily moving up then. That would put the white absolutely in control.

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Added a fast sketch to an extended wave 5, might not play out, technicly I could count it also in a different way which is already full, so be aware!

IF we move higher, I need to adjust the orange support area later as long as it goes higher.

Trade closed manually

about 20% os my position closed. Profit: ~270-280%. I keep the remaining and see what happens on monday.I have now an even more bullish scenario, but very far from confirmation. (will be orange route)

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So, a few days ago we broke out from the white falling channel (RTD). It has not reached its target YET (if someone is working with structures and formations), just be aware we are already getting overextended preatty much on the algobands (stop buy signal came in), and on the dynamic oscillators as well. Some room is left, and yes, it can still expand higher, but getting less and less likely before a deeper pullback.

Weekly RSI/MACD coming up nicely, RSI still has plenty of room, MACD put in a strong week, nearing the ground level (but remember, we have a lifetime downtrend!!!)

MACD and RSI on the daily is on overbought territories, but still strong, no evidence of exhaustion yet though. 9/21/50/52, and most importantly the 200 day MA was cut through like a spaceX rocket going to the moon. Looking like an impulsive movement, each swing, with little overlap. This is what we was waiting for ultimately, BUT be have to still be on the alarm side, because ultimately the pullback deepness, AND the form of the pullback (corrective?motive?impulsive? how many swings?, etc) will define LIKELY what is this movement.

What do I mean by that?
It is STILL probable, and actually not by a small margin, that we are withnessing now just an overall, big wave 4 upside correction with abc structures, it is NOT invalidated, for that we would comfortable break above the next bigger red resistance area (4+ usd), and maybe we are witnessing just an overall yellow a wave still out of the abc.

I have adjusted the support/resistance fib areas and as you know I closed up 20% first, and then another 10% at 1.82 usd, so I started to scale out, and will scale back in on the pullbacks. I leave some of my core positions (0.55-0.65 USD ), and will also add more on a possible later wave ii OR wave B pullback.

Now, I have added an orange smaller degree route. Ultimately it would not be too much different than the white one, excelpt that we are now still in the wave 3 and not in wave 5 (of bigger degree wave white i), would work as a leading diagonal. I had to add it, because of divergences, and RSI suggests this is currently not a wave 5 likely (so either wave 3 or a c wave):

AND because i got DM's to just sketch out a few possibility, here are they, NOT proportional!!! (and disregard also the time-components), in either way, we would reach the 2.20-2.40 (~2.30) target as I defined in july/august as a bare minimum, and then possibly (but too early to tell) then 5-6 usd + as the next target (and the next one above 11-12, but we can define that later).

White:

Orange:

Yellow (STILL probable!!!, then likel 5 more wave down as a diagonal or an impulse, which would also complete an extended bottoming):

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White sketch fixed:

Trade closed manually

an other 20% sold at 2.07 usd

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Support areas updated for each scenario. White is overextended, but still possible, we started wave 2 down to the bigger orangeish support fib area.

Orange is and yellow are more probables. Orange can still go higher, primarly against the orange upwards channel, but should NOT drop comfortably below the green support fib box, as it is putting in likely orange wave circle 4.

Trade active

Small poisition 1 re-added for long

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So far price action reacted nicely to the 0.618 green fib level. On the other hand for me it is actually looking a bit like a 5 small wave impulse to the downside, which would normally suggests, IF this is an orange wave 4, it is likely unfinished.

I have added the 0.786 fib level as well, just be aware, it is getting unreliable if it will go down to that level, on the other hand if it is some form of a diagonal to the upside, then LIKELY it can visit that level. under that level however i would be very skeptical about the orange.

And also, as you can see, ranges starting to overlap now with the bigger orange fib support area... Lets see, so far I am scaling back in but very cautiously...

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I would start to watch what happens in that drawed orange box. Price action became now quiet choppy, indicating this might be the c wave of orange wave 4, likely as an ending diagonal, but hard to count on the micro-timeframe. Remember, ultimately we have 2 overlapping fib support area, and also the 200 day moving average should be a strong support.

Neither scenarios invalidated.

Trade active

Small poisition 2 re-added for long

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We are still in the support box, the price action so far not looking impulsive. Critical level is holding (green 0.786). If we make a new low now, then likely it is not the orange count.

So far, all 3 scenario is in play still. Next target to the upside: 2.87 USD. Be aware, our first defined target with the idea (2.30 USD) was already filled, even overshot a bit.

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Still no major change, price ranging so far just above the 200 day MA, which is a positive sign, however this movement on the last few days not looking like an impulse. All counts still in play, neither of them are invalidated...
I kept adding some more smaller positions around the 1.05-1.15 range out of the profit taken near the top.

Wish You All Happy Holidays!

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And still no major change

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Orange count/route getting challenged. White and yellow gaining traction!

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Moment of truth is coming in the upcoming several days. we are at the 180/200day MA, slipping under, however meanwhile the 50/52 day MA, which are quiet importants have arrived to the scene trying to push up the price providing support. Gonna be interesting.

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Seemingly we are loosing for now tha moving averages, suggesting a deeper pullback is incoming. Orange is on an extremely thin ice, only possible with a so called "undershooting B wave", so I keep it on the charts, but chances are starting to drift dramatically away as we dig deeper.

The likelyness is growing, we either have a strong abc "correction" to the upside (this is the yellow route, I could easily count it as a 3 wave structure), OR we are in the white wave ii pullback which gonna be a bit deeper. Anyway, the orange support box is still in place, primarly I am watching now the 70-84 cents areas.

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Orange count invalidated meanwhile. White and yellow still in place. Remember: it might happen in the yellow case, that alternatively we already had the full abc upcorrection before making an other low in 5 waves. That is though NOT my primary scenario I am watching.

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Short update (I am on holiday):
Support and resistance fib boxes still in place, no change. Seemingly now white route gained some more traction, BUT yellow still in place as well.

Currently it seems for me white wave (4) is finishing as a small triangle. So we should see a new low.

Trade active

Continuing to scale back in now 2x the usual amount @ 0.77 USD & 0.69 USD

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I dont really like the looks of the price/volume actions. White route getting challenged. It is not invalidated though, but probabilities started to shift towards yellow. Remember, in the yellow alternatively we already witnessed the top, and going down to an expansion of the last bigger swing down. That would mean the bottoming again delaying. For that price shoud comfortably break below 60 cents.

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Recieveing many DM's about an update. There is no major change really. White and yellow still in play. I added some route, and microcount, watch for the resistance fib box area.

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Just a headsup: likely I need to change the counts, though it is not 100% yet. Again, I just dont like the structure whats happening, this runup is "not okay" the way it is formed. Still valid, but I am just... suspicious. I need more data (1-2 day at least) though.

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Okay, so I have added a blue variant which is similar to white, except it would likely do a few swing highs, before pulling back. Actually I would prefer that.

Yellow could still play out, we have not invalidated, in fact I had modified a bit the resistance zone due to the price actions in the previous days, AND because of the structure of movements is a bit suspicious for me.

And remember: alternatively we already saw the bigger scale wave 4 high, and bottoming postpones, though so far since we are holding support levels, and the structure SO FAR do not suggest that yet, I am not following it; just keeping a half-eye on that.

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For blue, micro-support goes all the way down to 85-85 cent-ish levels.
For the white, also can stop on that, if not, then the next orange fib support box to the downside.

Yellow: still in play.

Trade active

Scaling back in @0.866

Trade active

Scaling back in @ 0.8

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Under 72 cents the yellow is taking over with high probability, we still have some room left. My suspicion is getting more immerse. The challenge is the structure itself, seemingly we are having now an impulse to the downside on the micro-scale. Now, it CAN happen if we had previously the white count, then we are dealing with an expanded flat structure for this pullback. In this case it should start to turn around now, eventually taking out the previous high.

The blue is less likely now, but not invalidated, again, because of the selloff it is challenged heavily.

And now the yellow is "transformed" I would say, meaning that the previous runup was just a wave 4 bigger-scale correction as an ABC (remember alt 4), and now in some shape of form we are going lower in the 5th wave. Support must hold for the white, so I am scaling in down to 72 cents.

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I wanted to give you a more "clearer" update, but I wont be able to, not much has been changed. Still, all counts is valid. What I can see, is that buyers/bulls trying really hard to turn it around as we described it for the white count. Still valid... In fact, It has turned around EXACTLY where it needed to. However, now it is "suffering".

Reason for that being is the fact, it is cruicial now for the yellow count not to break above comfortably on the previous high @ 1.08-ish. Undecisive so far.

However. IF (huge IF), this is in deed the white count, I would say we should have witnessed already a more impulsive behaviour to the upside. Why? Because this being the 3rd wave than to the upside, which should have a lot of strength then.

Again, I am very suspicious, I overall dont "like" whats happening. Still, no count is invalidated though. I am still scaling in for long term.

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Price action is a little ambiguous still. The challenge is it is not really impulsive, however still holding the needed levels, but has not reached the needed ones to give a bit more clarity. In fact i would have "betted" it will pull back down again being maybe a diagonal as an "a" wave in wave 3 to form a b wave. Did not happen YET. And seemingly it wants to climb higher. I have added a small orange support fib box for that b wave, just be aware if price moving higher I need to adjust that with the price.

Also possible we are having an other 1-2 setup. Or the alt yellow route.

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Support areas adjusted for the price/volume action.

Under 77cents likelyhood starts to grow rapidly the alt yellow route coming into play

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Early warning: this downside momentum of the past several days looking very much like an impulse so far. It is still likely, that its just an overextended "A" wave because haveing 3 count move so far, of that bigger ABC to the downside to form the next higher low. If morphed to a 5 count now to the downside, chances starting to grow rapidly the ALT yellow route is in place OR something else is going on. I am watching it constantly what other could it be.

It is likely now, it will at least visit the 84-80 cents areas.

Trade active

Scaling back in @ 0.8

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I have slightly adjusted the counts.

Trade active

Scaling back in @ 0.72

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I have modified the yellow count/route. Now be aware, this is just a speculation so far, but like I said I am being very suspicios, counts for an impulse or normal abc does not really adding up for me. Not invalidated, BUT I am suspicious.

So the idea for the yellow, that we are still in wave 4 correction territory. That huge runup was just an "A" wave, now we are still (and will be for a little while) in the "B" wave as a TRIANGLE!!!, which maybe, just maybe would eventually result in a huge "C" wave up then.

White still valid though, but I just dont like the way it is forming the bottom, also the 0.784 seemingly acting as a resistance for that supposedly "impulse" motive wave 3...

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Now, price should NOT fall below 0.72 cents comfortably/sustained, but definetely cannot take out the previous low neither in the white, nor in the yellow case. If it does, then likely we are going lower roundabout with the target of ~40 cents as a first target (second around .32)

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Chances for the white route decreasing, as this is not an impulse to the upside. The only thing I can think about is that this is being a diagonal (choppy overlapping zigzags) to the upside as a wave (1) in the white route. In that case one more abc (zigzag) to the upside is missing I would say, therefore the smaller fib box should hold to create the last wave up in wave (1).

In the yellow we either topped in the "d" in triangle, or creating one more swing up to finish off "d".

In either scenario 0.74 cents should hold. Breaking comfortably under that would put more emphasize to the ALT yellow route.

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Early warning: we only have 3 count move again, and dropping in an impulsive way.
Either the triangle b top is resetted/resetting, or white is some shape of a diagonal, but then the small fib box should hold, not breaking it in a sustained/comfortable way.

This move put a bit more weight to the alt yellow route unfortunately, the big fib box therefore definetely MUST hold, otherwise we likely dropping way lower.

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So far no clear action/direction with the price&volume actions, all counts/routes still valid. Possibly we are forming a triangle (maybe within the triangle?), would be good for the white route if breaking to the upside, then i want to see breaking above 1.62.

For the ones who likes formations: possibly we are forming a cup and handle, where the handle is the small triangle itself.

Hourly/4hr RSI/MACD turning to the upside, however the daily turning down, BUT the weekly turning still up, so indecisive so far.

If it breaks to the downside the big fib box should still provide support, in that scenario the white (a little hopium count then) could form a bigger diagonal to the upside.

Trade active

Scaling back-in @ 0.88

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Early warning: on the micro-structure we possible do have 5 waves down as a diagonal, and the cup and handle formation is "destroyed" (technicly not invalidated, but the likeliness is very low now). This suggest further the yellow route or the alt yellow route, unless we break above the previous swing high at ~ 1.35-ish.

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I am hesitant to move the counts, because it could be several things, but LIKELY we will need to modify a bit the white route. For now it is possible, that circle white wave i ended later and we have an irregular flat structure as per the wave ii (see my drawing), , and that we are only working now in the wave circle A wave of an ABC to reach wave iii. Possible. Or this is just an overshooting b wave, also possible.

What I would love to see is an other 4-5, and then a bigger (4)-(5) to have finished off, for that the very small fib box should hold. The mid size fib box is the new "must" hold box for the white scenario to work out. That is 90 cents.

So overall, yes, it is going in the forecasted direction, just be aware this is only a 3 count move again, even though it is very impulsive, and ... suprise suprise we hit the resistance again and got rejected.

on the daily/weekly a weak divergence is present though, that is a good sign. All the moving averages was cut through like a butter(9/21/50/52/180/200). Good start also. A pullback would need to happen imminently though. so NO FOMO!!!

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Seemingly we are not getting the rough drawed route, so i havent moved any wavecounts yet.
No major action; a possible trendline break and retest could going on, divergence still present, MA's holding up although getting challenged soon. We are at a critical level I would say dancing around the 0.99-1.02 usd support; so far the 0.5 fib resistance is rejecting, and it tried several times to break above.

Because of that, it is possible it is a (b) wave top within the (a)(b)(c) as per the orange -> I readjusted the ALT yellow route, otherwise we would have two yellow route.

Just by the proportions it SEEMS like it might be some kind of a diagonal in the white route, for that wa are likely in the circle A wave of the wave iii, and what we are witnessing now is some kind of a circle B wave pullback.
I could also make the case for a big triangle for the yellow route, but then again, this upside movement is an non-proportional 3 wave move only instead of 5, and I would argue we dropped already to have a reliable wave 4, therefore it is also likely some shape of a diagonal starting now. Meaning each upside wave will be a choppy abc structure.

What is important now is the levels. 0.9 USD should hold, no sustained break should happen for the yellow or the white. A wickdown is acceptable, but no sustained breaks! Also for both yellow and white we should reach soon 1.93 usd. At 1.80 depending on the structure it still can be an orange (b) wave based on the current structure.

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Early warning (2nd, previous in may): Seemingly we forming 5 micro-wave down (one more leg down is missing), and we dropping in an impulsive way, and support starting to crack!

Surely it can be the c wave within that circle B, however it is challenging now both bullish wavecounts; seemingly the market wants it to have it crashed down in orange. Immediate action would be required from the bulls.

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I have added the 0.887 retracement, due to the assumption that we are (in the bull case) in a "b" wave of a larger possible diagonal, but be aware it is kind of a hopium count at this point, should it break further, the probabilities are rapidly growing, that it gonna break down to the orange route (alt 5), somewhere between 0.4 and 0.25 cents as the first target then.

Sure enough, it is deceptive at this point, because "b" waves can over/undershoot, but still, so far, the last movements of the past few weeks overall are not looking great.

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bullish divergence on the hourly/2hr chart destroyed. On the 4hr chart is is getting under attack just now.

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No change, this is really testing our patience now. It should do some act now. The "last resort" of that 1:1 extension level is somewhat still holding up but showing also cracks already. Now I could also count a technicly finished "abc" again from the previous swingtop, it is now getting messy and very hard to follow.
Watch also possibly for the yellow dotted upsloping trendline, could be also one indicator that it is breaking down, although having only 2 touchpoints so far.

Just in case I have sketched out/detailed out the possible downtrend route as one option.

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Last warning: if we do not have a sudden and impulsive turnaround latest at 0.79 cents, I dont have any more turnaround option from the lows of 2023 november - even the one i have left at this point is only a hopium one with an undershooting b wave, so heavily unreliable - and we are going lower roundabout with the target of as per the alt route as a bare minimum

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Seems like breaking down. (orange route) I have added a resistance area where likely a wave ii would get rejected, however we might go deeper down first. If that happens I will need to adjust the box.

It would suggest the market does not want the turnaround/bottoming but wants it to go deeper, too much short volume is present so far, and the bulls failing/ leaving out the opportunity.

Should we take out the resistance box to the upside and break above it SUSTAINED, and then essentially 1.53 would be needed, until that point orange becoming the primary route now.

Note

No new update: the original idea was working out and fulfilled the expectations. Now, liekly wave i (the first wave down in the c wave out of a bigger abc) likely bottoming soon. The only difference now, in order to THINK about sometghin more bullish is going on, we need to break above 1.87 USD, till then we wont have a bullish case.

Note

Price action still choppy, but in the orange i can recognize a possible i-ii setup.
Also we have two embedded head and shoulders pattern, with the downtarget primarly to 59 and 55 cents.

On the other hand some bullish divergence is present on the 1hr and 4hr timeframes, although the 4hr getting challenged. Ultra hopium case is that this is an undershooting B wave but i would not hold my breath for it. As long as we dont break above 1.87, I have to assume its the orange, finishing off a 5th wave down in c wave after the previous runup of a very short and fast wave 4 (which fulfilled the original idea)

tommtajlor

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