Where does my confidence lie ?
People around have been asking me why I am bearish on gold and gold miners stock despite the war in Ukraine, Israel Hamas conflict in the middle east and even now, at the impending end of cycle rate hike by Federal Reserve.
I am, on the contrary, very bullish on gold and gold miners' stocks, but not until a steep price drop in the near future. The sooner it drops the better, so that I can start accumulating gold miners' stocks. 2 months into the war in Ukraine by the Russian forces, Newmont Corporation (NEM) peaked at 86 USD. It caught my attention when I noticed a potential 'd' wave of an expanding triangle forming. I was reluctant to buy into the news of buying gold as a hedge against wars and inflation.
I started to short gold miners at that point in time and slowly accumulating as it drops further.
I have been using NEM as a proxy when it comes to mapping out my strategy in investing in gold and gold miners. A confluence of other miners, HUI, GDX, gold barrick, and DXY, comes into play as well.
Taking a step back to view the chart of NEM since inception, I can't help but noticing a mega long double three elliott wave pattern (WXY) forming for more than 30 years since 1988
As depicted in my chart, an expanded flat pattern (W) from 1988 to 2001/2. A double zigzag pattern (X) from 2001/2 to 2006. Since then, it has completed a,b,c,d waves of an expanded triangle. It is now on its way to complete wave 'e' of the triangle.
The next question to ask is is the 'b' wave of the abc pattern within wave 'e' completed ? Based on the confluence on gold and other gold miners price movements, most probably yes, . One will need a hourly chart to show the nuances of the 'b' wave which I am not discussing in this update.
My price target for the wave e should be around 10 to 12 USD. Whether we will see a wave 'e' failure remains to be seen. It will catch many investors and traders alike off-guard when NEM reaches this price range.
To quote from Warren buffet "be greedy only when others are fearful". That's when I will start to accumulate gold and gold miners' stocks.
PS: this chart is plotted in a semi-log scale.
I am, on the contrary, very bullish on gold and gold miners' stocks, but not until a steep price drop in the near future. The sooner it drops the better, so that I can start accumulating gold miners' stocks. 2 months into the war in Ukraine by the Russian forces, Newmont Corporation (NEM) peaked at 86 USD. It caught my attention when I noticed a potential 'd' wave of an expanding triangle forming. I was reluctant to buy into the news of buying gold as a hedge against wars and inflation.
I started to short gold miners at that point in time and slowly accumulating as it drops further.
I have been using NEM as a proxy when it comes to mapping out my strategy in investing in gold and gold miners. A confluence of other miners, HUI, GDX, gold barrick, and DXY, comes into play as well.
Taking a step back to view the chart of NEM since inception, I can't help but noticing a mega long double three elliott wave pattern (WXY) forming for more than 30 years since 1988
As depicted in my chart, an expanded flat pattern (W) from 1988 to 2001/2. A double zigzag pattern (X) from 2001/2 to 2006. Since then, it has completed a,b,c,d waves of an expanded triangle. It is now on its way to complete wave 'e' of the triangle.
The next question to ask is is the 'b' wave of the abc pattern within wave 'e' completed ? Based on the confluence on gold and other gold miners price movements, most probably yes, . One will need a hourly chart to show the nuances of the 'b' wave which I am not discussing in this update.
My price target for the wave e should be around 10 to 12 USD. Whether we will see a wave 'e' failure remains to be seen. It will catch many investors and traders alike off-guard when NEM reaches this price range.
To quote from Warren buffet "be greedy only when others are fearful". That's when I will start to accumulate gold and gold miners' stocks.
PS: this chart is plotted in a semi-log scale.
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